2016 year end review Archives - Katie Brady Real Estate

Overall sale transactions and dollar volume in 2016 were down 8-10% compared to 2015. The decrease in activity can be explained by two main contributing factors: 1) a sluggish vacant land market and; 2) overall available inventory, which was down to its second lowest level in 30 years. The Jackson Hole Report, a quarterly market report prepared by my colleague David Viehman at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, provides insights into the local real estate market. Click HERE to read the full 2016 Year in Review. A summary of statistics/trends follows:

OVERALL MARKET

Total number of Sale Transactions in 2016 was down 10% vs 2015.
Overall dollar volume was down 8% vs last year.
High-end sales over $3 million also dropped 8% compared to 2015.
Property sales under $1 million represented 54% of all sales in 2016, however there are only currently 11 single family homes are currently available in this price range (see below).
Current available inventory dropped 5% from 2015, making 2016 year-end inventory the second lowest level in more than 30 years!

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Single family (SF) home sales in 2016 were up 13% from last year.
However dollar volume was relatively unchanged while average sales prices dropped 9%, suggesting more homes were selling in 2016, but for lower prices (on average).
There were 113 SF home sales under $1 million in 2016 (an increase of 14%), HOWEVER currently there are only 11 homes available for sale in this price range (i.e. less than 1.5 months of inventory).
SF home sales above $3 million increased 15% in 2016, while home sales over $5 million declined 10%.
HOT SPOT: Home sales in the Town of Jackson increased 15% from 2015, while home sales on the Westbank increased 17%, together making up 52% of all homes sold in 2016.
While overall available SF home inventory is down 5%, the average listing price of these homes is a staggering $4 million, an increase of 19% from 2015.
There is only ONE home available under $750,000 – compare that to 2011, when there were 40 available options in this price rage.

Click HERE to view the 11 single family home listings priced under $1 million

Single family home for sale in the Town of Jackson – $989,000

CONDO/TOWNHOME

Overall condo sales are down 8%, while dollar volume is down 15% in 2016.
However median sale price rose 11%, due to increased demand and low supply/inventory
Condo sales under $500,000 in 2016 = 77 sales :: compare that to 2013 when 137 condos sold in this price range.
Currently there are only 8 condos available for sale under $500,000
HOT SPOT: Condo sales in The Aspens were up 36% in 2016, while median sale price increased 11%
Overall available inventory is down 23%, with 60 available units with an average listing price of $1.48 million

Click HERE to see the 8 condos/townhomes available under $500,000

3 bedroom condo in East Jackson – $499,000 (Listed by Prugh Real Estate)

VACANT LAND

Lot sales were down significantly (43%), while dollar volume also dropped 42%.
82% of lot sales are purchased with cash (i.e. no loan/financing) in 2016.
Currently there are 136 single family lots for sale, an increase of 6% from 2015.
Based on current absorption rates, it will take 2 years for all available lots to sell (not taking into account any new inventory that hits the market).
The average list price for available vacant lots is $2.65 million, up 15% from 2015.
The majority of available lots (43) are in the $1-2 million price range.
Supply exceeds demand in this segment: Of the available lots, 71% have been on the market for over 12 months!

Click HERE to see the 11 lots available under $500,000

WHAT TO DO NEXT?

BUYERS: Given the low levels of available inventory, especially in the entry level market, well priced and well maintained properties will continue to sell quickly. Please connect with me so that I can alert you about soon-to-be-listed properties in your price range. You can also search Jackson Hole properties on my website or sign up for automatic listing updates. As a Buyer, it’s very important to be prepared to act quickly. Get pre-qualified with a local bank (contact me for a list of local lenders) in order to be ready to make an offer on a competitive property.

SELLERS: As a Seller, the best strategy is to price your property competitively (based on the most recent comparable sales) and market it effectively, as well priced properties can receive multiple offers. If you are interested in a learning what your property could sell for in this market, please complete the Home Valuation Request Form for a free, in-depth, data-driven market analysis.

2016 Year in Review: Market Trends and Sale Statistics for the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market

Over the course of 2016, I have tracked many different sale and market statistics which all help paint a picture of the real estate market in Jackson Hole over the past year. Below are some of the take-aways from the Jackson real estate market in 2016, how they compare to the past few years, and a look forward to 2017:

Quick Stats – 2016:

Real Estate Transactions: 448 sales

2015 = 466 sales
2014 = 447 sales

Sales Volume: $634,247,000

2015 = $743,000,000
2014 = $568,000,000

Average Sales Price: $1,415,730

2015 = $1,590,000
2014 = $1,270,000

Average Days on Market: 193 days (6+ months)

2015 = 197 days
2014 = 267 days

What it means: After an explosive 2015 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, 2016 fell short as both real estate transactions and dollar volume decreased this year. While sale transactions in 2016 were only down 4% compared to 2015, overall sales volume was down 15% compared to last year. Looking back a year further, 2016 transactions levels were actually in line with 2014, however dollar volume has increased almost 12% from 2014 (perhaps a 6% increase after inflation). Many people (most notably sellers) anticipated the gains of 2015 would carry over into 2016. This was not necessarily the case as low inventory levels in 2016 limited sales (albeit putting upward pressure on prices in the meantime). The average sales price in 2016 followed a similar trend, falling short of 2015 levels by 11%, but coming in higher than 2014. In the chart below, you can see how the average selling price fluctuates based on the season each year, with 2015 having particularly high months in August, September and October. Days on market in 2016 was consistent with 2015 as properties took, on average, 6 months to sell.

Breakdown of Sales by Price Point – Residential:

When comparing 2016 to the past few years, it is very helpful to break down the sales by price point to determine what pricing trends are present. In 2016, the majority of residential sales (42%) occurred in the $500,000 – $1,000,000 range. This included many entry level single family homes in Rafter J, Cottonwood Park and the Town of Jackson. It also included 2+ bedroom condos in The Aspens and smaller, older condos in Teton Village. (It’s becoming clear that the days of buying a single family home for less than $500,000 are over, as only 3 single family homes sold for under $500,000 in 2016 – two in Moran and a small cabin down in Hoback.) The percentage of properties selling for under $300,000, which are mostly 1 bedroom condos in Town, is also shrinking – dropping from 9% in 2014, to 4% in 2015, to just 3% of all property sales in 2016. On the other end of the spectrum, properties selling for over $3 million were down slightly in 2016, after doubling from 2014 to 2015. Properties selling in the $1,000,000 – $3,000,000 million range remained consistent from 2015 to 2016 and represented homes in Wilson and the Town of Jackson, and higher end condos in Teton Village.

Breakdown of Sales by Price Point – Land Sales:

The price point breakdown of vacant land sales shifted upwards from 2015 to 2016, as the majority (45%) of land sales occurred in the $1-3 million price range in 2016. Many of these lot sales occurred in high end neighborhoods like John Dodge, Solitude, Stilson Ranch, etc. Vacant land sales under $500,000 dropped 10% from 2015, as fewer entry level opportunities existed in the market. The least expensive lots sales occurred in Hoback, Squaw Creek and south of Wilson on Fall Creek Road. (Note: Currently there are only 11 lots are available for sale in Teton County under $500,000 and zero lots available under $300,000.) Very high end vacant lot sales ($3+ million), including several lots in Granite Ridge and Shooting Star at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, dipped in 2016, representing only 9% of all sales (vs. 15% in 2015).