2018 Jackson Hole Real Estate Summary & 2019 Forecast

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2019 Forecast

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

The Jackson Hole real estate market’s 5 year history goes something like this….

The market spiked significantly from 2014 to 2015 with sales increasing slightly (4%) and dollar volume jumping by 23.5%. Then in 2016 sales slowed and overall dollar volume dropped 15%. Many argued we had reached the “peak” in 2015. In 2017, sales dropped again, but this time dollar volume actually increased, meaning while fewer properties were selling, they were selling for higher prices. I’m not sure anyone anticipated what we saw in 2018. Transactions increased by 13%, but dollar volume increased by a staggering 38% over 2017. As we saw above, many of the additional sales and much of the dollar volume occurred at the higher end of the market, pulling the overall average sales price up 22% in one year.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

Inventory levels spiked in 2015, when 739 new listings hit the Jackson Hole market. While 2018 saw a slight increase from the low levels of 2016-2017, homebuyers still had 100 fewer choices in 2018 than in 2015. Inventory levels can influence sale numbers and the ratio between the two can indicate the level of competitiveness in the market. In 2015, there was 1.58 new listings for every property sold. In 2018, there were only 1.27 new listings for every property sold. If the trend of increasing sales (as we saw in 2018) continues, and inventory levels remain low, expect values and prices to continue to increase into 2019.

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2019 Forecast

What will happen next? Is this growth sustainable? Can we expect to see values increase another 20% next year?

In looking into my crystal ball, I do not foresee a crash or significant downturn in 2019 in our market, given Jackson Hole’s unique relationship between supply and demand. On the supply side limited developable land remains (only 3% of all land is privately owned and many of those lands are permanently in conservation) resulting in slim potential for future new inventory. Additionally, “shadow inventory” remains hidden as would be home sellers have nothing to buy. On the other side, demand continues to remain strong. In an age when people can work remotely and live where ever they like, more and more people want to call Jackson Hole home (why wouldn’t they?). A volatile stock market may also increase demand as investors look to put their money in safer investments (i.e. Jackson Hole real estate). That being said, I have to anticipate that the explosive increases of 2018 will need to slow. I have a hard time believing we will see a similar scale of appreciation in 2019. We may see a tempering of the recent fast-paced increases as we did after the previous spike in 2015.  Stay tuned….

Advice for Sellers in 2019:

Price your property in-line with market comps. Depending on your property type/price point, the time for “testing” the market may be coming to an end.

You may need to focus on a procuring solid sale, rather than necessarily getting top dollar.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc.

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Advice for Buyers in 2019:

Know the market – What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels?

Realize some sellers may be feeling bold after 2018 and pricing their properties aggressively.

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly.

Be prepared to make a strong offer as well priced properties will continue to draw a lot of attention.

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.