Are we back to the real estate peak of 2007? Has the Jackson Hole market made a full recovery?
Not quite, but we are getting close according to The Jackson Hole Report, a quarterly market report prepared by my colleague David Viehman at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate. Click HERE to read the full 2015 Q2 Report.
Compared to this time last year, transactions have spiked (up 21%) and the average sales price has increased 32%. However, if we look at several paired sales (sales of identical properties (with little to no remodeling) that sold in 2006-2007 and again in 2014-2015), we get a better understanding of which types of properties and locations have recovered faster than others. The Jackson Hole Report looked at 108 of these paired sales and found the following:
- Only 7 sales (6.4%) have actually increased in value from the peak and all time high of late 2007
- Single family home values increased more than condos, townhomes or vacant land
- Teton Village is the only area to report widespread increases in value
Compared to last year, the first 6 months of 2015 showed increases across the entire real estate market as a result of relatively low inventory levels and increasing demand.
- Number of Sale Transactions are up 21%
- Overall dollar volume rose 58%!
- Average Sale Price increased by 32%
- Sales over $1 million are up a staggering 83% since this time last year, with 1/3 of all property sales occuring between $1-3 million
- Teton Village accounted for 16% of all sales and 27% of all sales volume
- Overall available inventory remains low, with only a 3% increase over Q2 2014, and still represents some of the lowest inventory levels we’ve seen since the peak of 2007
- Currently there are only 14 single family homes available in Teton County priced under $750,000 – compare that to last year, which saw 158 home sales under $750,000
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
- Demand continues to increase in 2015 with 31% more sales compared to last year
- Average Sale Price increased 21%
- The $1 – $3 million segment has seen the greatest increase – up 66% compared to mid-year 2014
- Many older homes (20+ years) have come onto the market recently and currently make up 39% of available single family home inventory
- Available single family home listings are up only slightly (5%) when compared to last year at this time
- These new listings have a median list price close to $2.2 million
- Sales are up 16% compared to mid year 2014
- Average Sale Price is up 65% resulting from a jump in condo sales above $1 million
- Hot Spot: Condos in Teton Village, which was up 106%
- Available inventory declined 7% from Q2 2014
- Only 29% of available condos are priced under $500,000
- Lot sales continue to increase, up 11% compared to mid year 2014
- Average Sale Price is up 22%
- Lot sales over $1 million are up 40%
- 50% of lot sales this year went to locals, who are perhaps fed up with the low single family home inventory
- Over 3/4 of all lot sales in 2015 were cash transactions
OUTLOOK: Low inventory levels and high demand suggest that the Jackson Hole market will continue to appreciate throughout the summer. We should expect to see high levels of activity in the under $1 million single family home segment, given the particularly low inventory in that price range. However, buyers appear to be motivated by value (and not their emotions) and are not making offers on overpriced listings. As evidence, we’ve seen many overpriced listings sit on the market for more than a year as Sellers try to ‘test’ the market.
As a Seller, the best strategy is to price your property competitively (based on comparable sales) and market it effectively. If you are interested in a learning what your property could sell for in this market, please connect with me for a free, in-depth, data-driven market analysis.