Dollar Volume down in 2016 as April records lowest level in 15 months

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for May 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Apr 2016:

  • 24 :: Total residential sale transactions (similar to last month)
  • $24,700,000 :: Total residential sales volume (lowest in 2+ years)
  • $1,030,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (lowest in 9 months)
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (back up to typical level)
  • 210 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (similar to last month)

What it means:  Sale transactions in April were in line with March sales, which continued to lag 2015 transaction numbers. Total dollar volume dropped significantly last month, marking the lowest level since Jan 2014. Compared to last year, April’s dollar volume was less than half of what was sold in April 2015, a prevailing trend so far in 2016 (see chart below).  Given the low dollar volume, the average sales price in April also dropped as many properties sold in the lower price ranges (see What Sold below). The last time the average sales price was down near $1 million was back in July 2015.  The sale price to list price ratio rebounded from last month to more typical levels. In particular, 6 properties (or 25% of all sales) sold at or near the listing price in April, including a 3 bedroom updated Aspens condo, which sold quickly for the listing price of $990,000. The average days on market remained consistent as most properties, on average, sold in a little over 200 days of listing. In April, more than 40% of the sales occurred within 3 months of hitting the market, including a 3 bedroom townhome in E Jackson and a vacant lot in Teton Pines. This illustrates that well-priced properties in high demand market segments are selling quickly in the Jackson real estate market.

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Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for May 2016.

 

Thinking of listing this summer?

As we approach the busy selling season, Sellers will be in a great position to benefit from low inventory levels in the Jackson Hole market. If you are curious about the value of your property in the current market, please contact me for a free and accurate market analysis. Properties listed by May 25, 2016 will be included in our RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate Summer Brochure!

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Real Estate sales and dollar volume recover in March

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for February 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Mar 2016:

  • 25 :: Total residential sale transactions (up again from last month)
  • $41,750,000 :: Total residential sales volume (up again from last month)
  • $1,670,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (down slightly from last month)
  • 90% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (lowest in past several years!)
  • 209 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (up slightly from last month)

What it means:  March real estate sales and dollar volume recovered after a very slow February, however both are still lagging numbers seen the same time last year. Transactions this March were roughly 30% below March 2015, while dollar volume was only 3/4 of what it was last year at this time. The average sales price in March remained high, thanks to several high end sales (see What Sold section). The sale price to list price ratio continued to fall in March, meaning properties were selling, on average, at more of discount, and reached a low not seen in the last 3+ years (since I’ve been compiling stats for this report). While this low percentage was in no doubt helped by a 105 acre ranch parcel which sold for half of its listing price in MLS, even without that transaction, the monthly average was still 92%. While this low percentage could indicate that Sellers are becoming more motivated in general, in reality many Sellers may have priced recent listings aggressively in anticipation that the market would continue to increase at the rate seen in 2015 (see 2015 Year End Report). Since the market value acceleration slowed a bit in 2016, many Sellers may now be willing to sell at a greater discount to their original list prices. The average days on market increased slightly as most properties, on average, sold within 200 days after listing. In March, only 4 properties sold in 3 months or less including two condo hotels in Teton Mountain Lodge and only 1 property sold at the listing price (compare that to various months in 2015, when as many as 1/3 of properties could sell within a few months of being listed and several properties would consistently sell at or above the list price).

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Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for April 2016.

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Real Estate Transactions hit new low in February in Jackson Hole

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for February 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Feb 2016:

  • 19 :: Total residential sale transactions (lowest in past year)
  • $34,688,000 :: Total residential sales volume (up slightly from last month)
  • $1,825,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (up from last month)
  • 94% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (down from last several months)
  • 194 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (down from last month)

What it means:  Even with the extra Leap Day, real estate sale transactions hit a new low in February with only 19 sales reported to the MLS.  Sales volume remained low, but was a slight improvement from January.   The average sales price rose in February thanks to a $10+ million sale in Indian Springs (see What Sold below). Interestingly, the ratio of sale price to listing price dropped down to 94% after several months of 95-96% illustrating that buyers purchased property at even more of a discount in February. In particular, only 1 of the 19 sales occurred at or very near to the listing prices (compare that to December, where 35% of all sales sold at, near, or above the listing price). While this could be evidence that Sellers are becoming more motivated, more likely I believe that many sellers are pricing their properties above market and then are willing to sell at a price closer to recent sale comps. For example, one home sale in Teton Pines was originally listed at $5.2 million, reduced to $4.3 million and finally sold last month for $3.85 million. Properties that sold in February were on the market for an average of 194 days and marked the first time this statistic has dipped below 200 days since Oct 2015. There were 5 properties (or 26% of all sales) that sold in under 3 months, while two different high end properties sold after 2 years on the market, including a Granite Ridge property that sold after 426 days on the market.

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Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for March 2016.

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Sale Transactions & Dollar Volume down at start of New Year

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for February 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Jan 2016:

  • 21 :: Total residential sale transactions (lowest in past year)
  • $32,690,000 :: Total residential sales volume (down again from last month)
  • $1,560,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (down from last month)
  • 95% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (same as last month)
  • 225 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (up slightly from last month)

What it means:  Real estate sale transactions continued to decline in January, reaching a low not seen in the past several years! Sales volume also decreased again, representing the 3rd lowest levels seen in the past year. While January is typically a slow month for sales (Jan 2015 had only 22 sales), some evidence suggests that these sluggish levels of activity may stick around.  The average sales price dipped to $1.5 million in January, after 3 of the last 4 months saw average prices up near $2 million mark. The ratio of sale price to listing price remained at 95% for the second month in a row suggesting that recently buyers are purchasing property at slightly more of a discount (on average). In January, only 2 properties sold within 1% of the listing price (compare that to December, where 35% of all sales sold at, near, or above the listing price). Properties that sold in January were on the market for an average of 225 days. In particular, there were 7 properties that sold after 6 months on the market and 4 that sold after being on the market for over a year. This could be a result of not much new inventory hitting the market, forcing buyers to focus on the existing, older inventory. There were several high-end sales in January, in which the sales prices were not disclosed to the MLS including a 10 acre estate perched above the Town of Kelly (listed for $7.5 million), a 6,000 sq foot house in Crescent H (listed for $7.9 million and pictured below) and a 6 bedroom home at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort.

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6,000 sq foot home in Crescent H sold in January (listed by JHREA)

 

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for February 2016.

 

With the help of my friends and customers, I’ve been voted one of Jackson’s Best Realtors since 2012 and am hoping you can help me earn the GOLD medal this year!

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Visit www.bestofjh.com to vote. Be sure to vote for all your other Jackson favorites. It’s fun!

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December sales lowest since Jan 2015 in Jackson Hole real estate market

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for January 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Dec 2015:

  • 23 :: Total residential sale transactions (2nd lowest in past year)
  • $44,525,000 :: Total residential sales volume (another drop)
  • $1,935,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (back up after a dip last month)
  • 95% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (slight drop after many consistent months)
  • 217 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (identical to last month)

What it means:  Real estate sale transactions dropped off significantly in December, marking the lowest number of monthly sales since Jan 2015, and perhaps signaling a new trend of slowing real estate activity. Sales volume also declined again, representing the 3rd lowest levels seen in the past year.  The average sales price was back up near $2 million, a typical average price over the last several months. The ratio of sale price to listing price dropped slightly to 95% after 7 months at 96%, suggesting that recently buyers are purchasing property at more of a discount (on average). That being said however, 35% of all sales in December sold at, near, or above the listing price, including all 3 sales that occurred under $500,000.  Properties selling in December were, on average, on the market slightly longer than sales in the summer months. The 10 acre Forest Service parcel on North Cache finally sold after 910 days on the market (and after falling out of contract with several previous buyers).  Conversely there were also several property sales that occurred very quickly in December including a cabin on 3 acres in Red Top Meadows (listed for $489,000) and an Aspens one bedroom condo with a unique floor plan (listed for $405,000). Both properties sold in under 70 days from hitting the market. Well priced and high demand properties continue to sell quickly, however many aggressively priced properties are sitting on the market. Heading into 2016, I anticipate this trend to continue as Buyers continue to be motivated by value and are not ready or willing to pay more than a property is worth (based on the most recent market comps).

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AspensCondo

Aspens Condo with unique floor plan sold quickly in December

 

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for January 2016.

 

 Thank you to all my clients and colleagues for making 2015 a great year in real estate. I was able to help 19 different buyers and sellers (15 shown) purchase or sell property in Teton County this past year.

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How can I help you buy or sell a home in 2016? 

Sales Volume drops significantly in November in Jackson Hole real estate market

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Dec 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Nov 2015:

  • 41 :: Total residential sale transactions (down for the second month)
  • $52,500,000 :: Total residential sales volume (a BIG drop from the last few months)
  • $1,280,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (down after many months near $2m)
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (consistent for past 7 months)
  • 216 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (up for second month in a row)

What it means:  Real estate sale transactions dipped again in November after a busy Fall season. Sales volume dropped off significantly in November, representing only half of sales volumes seen this summer.  The average sales price also decreased significantly, down nearly 35% from the averages of Aug-Sept-Oct. Properties are consistently selling, on average, at 96% of the current listing price. That being said there were several properties that sold this month for significantly less than their original listing price including a 2 bedroom home in Rafter J that sold for $50,000 less than the listing price, a Moosecreek townhome in Teton Village that sold at 90% of list price and a property at the base of Snow King, which sold for nearly $200,000 less than its original listing price. Properties that sold in November were, on average, on the market longer than sales in the previous 2 months. in particular, a unique distressed property (short sale) on Fish Creek Road finally sold after being on the market for over 2 years (pictured below).  That being said, there were 12 properties that sold in November (29% of all sales) after less than 3 months on the market, including a 3 bedroom condo at Snow King with short term rental zoning, which had multiple offers in the first few days and sold for $15,000 OVER the listing price. Bottom line: Well priced properties continue to sell quickly, while aggressively priced properties sit on the market and/or eventually sell at deep discounts. This demonstrates that Buyers are ready to buy but are motivated by value and are not willing to over pay for a property.

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Unique Property on Fish Creek Rd – a short sale that finally sold after 2+ years on market

 

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for December 2015.

 

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October real estate transactions and volume dipped slightly, but remain strong in Jackson Hole market

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for October 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Oct 2015:

  • 46 :: Total residential sale transactions (down slightly after 2 high months)
  • $89,000,000 :: Total residential sales volume (including unreported sale prices)
  • $1,940,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (similar to last month)
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (consistent for past 6 months)
  • 196 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (back up after a low month in Sept)

What it means:  After a very strong performance in August and September, both real estate transactions and sales volume dipped slightly in October, but remained robust. Sales transactions in October were the fifth highest in the past 12 months, while sales volume (including unreported sale prices*) was the fourth highest in the previous year. The average sales price in Teton County remained consistent with the past 2 months, hovering just under $2 million. Properties continue to sell, on average, at a 4% discount to the current listing price.  The average days a property sits on the market before selling increased slightly after a low in September and is right near the 12-month average of 193 days. In particular, there were 3 properties that sold last month after more than 2 years on the market, including a Bed and Breakfast on Teton Village Road, that sold for 97% of its original listing price when it first came onto the market back in July 2013. We continue to see well priced and/or in high demand properties selling very quickly and close to asking price. In October, 16 of the 46 sales (35% of all sales) closed within 3 months of being listed. Additionally, 7 sales in October sold at or ABOVE the listing price, including a rare Grand Teton National Park in-holding, which sold for $1.795m after 150 days on the market.

*Note that in previous reports, I separately tracked sales that were reported to the MLS and transactions where the sales price was withheld from the MLS. Lately, there have been several significant sales each month that are not reported to the MLS. Given that these undisclosed sales are a valuable component in tracking the overall market trends, going forward, I will be reporting the COMBINED total sales volume and average sales prices, including those sales reported to the MLS and making an estimate for sale prices not reported to the MLS.

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Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for November 2015.

 

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Another strong month for transactions and sales volume in Jackson Hole real estate market

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for October 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Sept 2015:

  • 53:: Total residential sale transactions (similar to Aug’s high)
  • $100,500,000 :: Total residential sales volume including unreported sale prices
  • $1,900,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (consistent for past 5 months)
  • 155 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (back down after last month’s spike)

What it means:  September real estate sales followed in August’s footsteps, recording a second straight month of robust transaction levels. Additionally, sales volume in September had another strong performance topping $100 million for the second month in a row (including reported and non-reported sales prices – see note below).  As a point of reference, we haven’t seen total sales volume top $100 million since October 2013 and haven’t seen numbers even close to these since last fall (Sept & Oct 2014 had total sales volumes of just over $90 million each). It is typical for the fall months, mainly Sept and Oct, to put up strong numbers as they account for deals that came together during the busy summer selling season (i.e. if you put a property under contract in Aug, you will most likely close in Sept or Oct). I also think the high September sales transaction and volume are also an indication of increasing motivation of sellers as we approach the end of summer. As an illustration, we saw several price reductions last month as many Sellers hope to sell their properties before winter. In conjunction with the higher than usual sales volume, the average sales price (again including both reported and unreported sales) remained much higher than usual at just under $2 million.  The average days a property sits on the market before selling dropped down again after a small increase in August. Properties that are well priced and/or in high demand continue to sell very quickly and close to asking price. In particular, 22 of the sales in September closed within 3 months of being listed. Additionally, nearly 20% of all sales occurring in September closed at or above the listing price.

Note that in previous reports, I separately tracked sales that were reported to the MLS and transactions where the sales price was withheld from the MLS. Lately, there have been several significant sales each month that are not reported to the MLS. Given that these undisclosed sales are a valuable component in tracking the overall market trends, going forward, I will be reporting the COMBINED total sales volume and average sales prices, including those sales reported to the MLS and making an estimate for sale prices not reported to the MLS.

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Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for October 2015.

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Unreported sales push August sales volume above $100 million

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Sept 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Aug 2015:

  • 51:: Total residential sale transactions (up after 2 low months)
  • $40,500,000 :: Total residential sales volume reported to MLS (back up after a slow July)
  • $103,700,000 :: Total residential sales volume including unreported sale prices
  • $1,070,000::  Average sales price of reported sales (back up after a down month)
  • $2,034,000::  Average sales price including unreported sale prices
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (same as last few months)
  • 201 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (up after 5 months of decline)

What it means:  After a slow June and July, August picked up the pace logging over 50 transactions last month, falling in line with May 2015, and marking the 3rd highest monthly transaction level in the past year. Reported sales volume increased slightly compared to July, however reported sales do not tell the whole story for August. Last month there were 13 property sales that did not disclose the sales price to the MLS. Many times, buyers and/or sellers do not want the real estate community to be privy to the agreed upon sales price of a particular property. This usually occurs with higher-end luxury properties (in this case 8 of the 13 unreported sales in August were for over $2 million).  When factoring in these unreported sales, August’s sales volume spikes to over $100 million (!) – the highest monthly sales volume not only in the past year but since October 2013.  The average sales price increased slightly in August but continues to hover near the $1 million mark. However, when adding in the 13 unreported sales, the average sales price increases to more than $2 million, or 2x the typical average.  A property’s average days on market jumped up after a 5 month declining trend. This can be explained by several of the higher-end sales in August, as these properties tend to sit on the market longer because the buyer pool is much smaller (as compared to say, a $400,000 townhome in Town). That being said, we continue to see well priced and high demand properties go under contract very quickly. Twenty-two of the 51 sales in August (or nearly one half) sold within 3 months of being listed (with many selling very close to the listing prices).

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Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for September 2015.

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Sales Volume and Transactions down in July in Jackson Hole

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Aug 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – July 2015:

  • 33:: Total residential sale transactions (down again after May’s high)
  • $28,300,000 :: Total residential sales volume reported to MLS (down again from last month)
  • $944,000::  Average sales price of reported sales (down after several months of increases)
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (same as last few months)
  • 158 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (down for the 5th month in a row)

What it means:  After a spike in May, transaction levels and sales volume dropped significantly in June and July appears to be following the same trend, dropping to pre-summer sales levels. Reported sales volume in July marked the lowest volume in the past 6 months.  There were only 3 unreported sale prices in July and all were for properties priced under $550,000. This is interesting as most unreported sales are for very high end property sales. (These buyers may have received a great deal (or maybe feared they paid too much) and therefore didn’t want the real estate community to know the final sales price.) The average sales price declined in July after a spike in June ($1.3 million) and dipped below the $1 million mark for only the second time in 2015.   The average days a property is on the market before closing continues to decline (5th month in a row), and now represents the second lowest number of days in the past year. Well priced properties continue to go under contract very quickly, many times within a day of being listed in the MLS. In particular, in the month of July nearly 50% of all sales occurred within 90 days of being listed. While many sellers are listing their properties very aggressively given past comps, we saw several price reductions in July, suggesting that some Sellers may be feeling pressured from the well priced properties that are going under contract quickly.

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Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for August 2015.

 

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