2021: Q1 Sales & New Listings

Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$2,970,116

Average Sales Price

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$389M

Total Sales Volume

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Market Analysis

Reviewing first quarter stats is very helpful in evaluating the pre-pandemic real estate market to the post-pandemic real estate boom seen here in Jackson Hole as well as many other places in the country. We all know the market increased, but by how much? There were 40 more real estate sales in Q1 2021 than the same time in 2020, an increase of 44%. Despite seeing fewer sales in January 2021, sales in February and March were roughly double the pre-pandemic levels seen in early 2020. Sales volume has skyrocketed, with $175 million MORE in volume in Q1 2021, a staggering increase of 82% over the start of 2020. Similar to transactions, sales volume was inline with January 2020, but in February and March sales volume was double that of 2020, for a grand total of $389 million in the first quarter of 2021. It’s interesting to note that the 4-year average for sales volume in the first quarter is only $172 million – we’ve seen quite the increase over the last 5 years!

The average sale price was up each month and up $600,000 over the quarter, representing a 26% increase from early 2020. The median sale price was also up every month, ranging from $1.65 million to $2.14 million. Sales increased in nearly every price point with the largest increase in the $3 million and up segment, where there were 18 more sales in the first quarter of 2021. Sales in the $1-3 million range also saw a significant increase with 17 more sales this year. The biggest shift in property type was for vacant lots where nearly 2 times as many building sites sold in the first quarter of 2021, representing 24% of all sales (up from 16% in Q1 2020).

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New Listings – What’s New?

$3,483,409

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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$433,241,500

LIST PRICE Volume

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Market Analysis

New listings in the first quarter of 2021 are actually up when compared to the start last year. The number of new listings this year outpaced 2020 in both January and March for a total of 10 more listings in the first quarter, an increase of 8.7%. This doesn’t necessarily mean there are more things to buy as nearly all of the available inventory was cleared out in Q3 & Q4 2020 during the pandemic inflicted real estate boom here in Jackson Hole. With only 10 more listings, the total listing volume was up $127 million, a staggering increase of 41.5%. After outpacing listing volume in January, and seeing similar levels in February, listing volume was $100 million higher in March 2021, with only 5 more listings. As to be expected, the average listing price jumped from $2.733 million before the pandemic, to $3.483 million in the start of 2021, an increase of $750,000 or 27%. This significant increase was no doubt helped by the month of March 2021 where the average listing price nearly reached $4 million. The average median listing price also increased significantly, going from $1.67 million to just over $2.2 million, an increase of over $500,000, equating to a 32% jump.

More building sites entered the market in Q1 2021, representing 23% of all new listings (vs. 17% in Q1 2020). Nearly all of the available lot inventory was sold out in Q3 and Q4 2020, no doubt encouraging other lot owners to take advantage of low supply levels and put their (snow covered) property on the market in early 2021. Currently there are only 19 lots for sale in all of Teton County! The first quarter saw a spike in new listings over $3 million with 20 more properties hitting the market in this price point. On the other end of the spectrum, there were 11 fewer listings under the  $1 million mark. Currently there are only 8 properties in all of Teton County available under $1,000,000.

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Year End Review – Five Year Trends and 2021 Forecast

Jackson Hole Real Estate Trends – Past 5 years

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales – Past 5 years

Well, 2020 was a year for the record books as statistics from this past year dwarfed all previous years. MLS sales had not exceeded 500 per year over the last 5 years and almost reached 650 in 2020 (a 37% increase over the previous 4 year average). Sales volume experienced even bigger gains in 2020. Looking back, we saw annual sales volume increasing from $634 million to $676 million from 2016 to 2017. The market took a jump in 2018, when sales volume increased more than $250 million from the previous year – a staggering 38% increase (with only a 13% increase in sales). The market stayed steady in 2019, with a similar level of sales and slightly less sales volume (about a 5% drop), a healthy sign after a very strong 2018. Enter 2020, where sales volume skyrocketed – up to $1.8 billion – more than DOUBLE the average annual sales volume of the previous 4 years. To put it in perspective: 2020 saw as much sales volume as 2018 & 2019 COMBINED!

As to be expected, the average sales price also experienced a record breaking increase, with the trend following that of sales volume: Average sales price hovered around $1.5 million in 2016 & 2017, jumped up to $1,892,000 in 2018 and cooled slightly in 2019 to just above $1.8 million. The average sales price in 2020 was $2.8 million, a $1,000,000 increase from 2019 and a 68% increase over the previous 4 year average. Wow! These record breaking increases were a result of unprecedented demand, as many out of town buyers flocked to Jackson Hole and competed with local buyers on property purchases. What resulted were many multiple offer situations, contributing to 170 properties selling at or above their listing prices in 2020 (more than 1 in every 4 sales). Compare that to the previous 4 years, where the highest percentage was 23% in 2018 (and only 17% last year). It’s interesting to track the various price points over the past 4 years. The $1-3 million segment follows the overall market growth, mirroring increases in overall sales and volume. In contrast, the luxury segment saw oversized growth in 2020. Back in 2017, there were just 42 sales in this high end segment. In 2018, sales in this segment jumped along with the overall market, recording 76 sales. After seeing a similar level of sales in 2019, this segment exploded in 2020 with 186 sales over $3 million, more than double the number of sales in the previous two years combined. On the other end of the spectrum, sales under $500,000 dropped off considerably in 2020, representing less than 5% of all sales.

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Market Analysis

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

In a year of unprecedented demand, the Jackson Hole market saw a decline in inventory levels in 2020. Looking back over the past 5 years, new listings in 2016-2018 ranged between 613-632 per year. As a result of a busy 2018 in sales, sellers responded and new listings jumped in 2019, with nearly 700 new listings hitting the market. In 2020, inventory levels actually dropped, with barely enough new listings (685) to replace the 643 sales in 2020. It’s interesting to analyze the gap between sales and new listings over the past 5 years. In 2016 & 2017, new listings outpaced sales by 170 properties each year. In 2018, inventory tightened a bit, with 138 more listings than sales. In 2019, more listings hit the market, an increase in supply which held sales (and dollar volume) steady, as new listings outpaced sales by 203 properties. Compare those trends to 2020, where the gap between listings and sales was only 42, by far the lowest supply to demand (sales) we’ve seen yet.

Despite seeing fewer listings in 2020, the listing volume increased significantly from 2019, recording 17% more in volume (with 11 fewer listings). Looking back over the last 5 years, listing volume has increased each year, growing by roughly $250 million in the past 2 years in particular. The year 2020 saw a $325 million increase from 2019, pretty amazing considering there were actually fewer new listings in 2020! After increasing 12% in 2018, and holding steady in 2019 at just under $2.5 million, the average listing price jumped significantly in 2020 – up to more than $3.2 million, a 30% increase over 2019.

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2021 Forecast

By all accounts, 2020 in the Jackson Hole real estate market was one for the record books. Annual sales were up 30% and overall sales volume in 2020 was more than double that of 2019. The average sales price was $1 million higher than in 2019. Fewer listings came onto the market, but did so at higher prices as listing volume increased 17% and the average listing price nearly reached $3.2 million.

The global pandemic had buyers from all over the country, many of whom could now work remotely, escaping to less populated areas with access to the outdoors. Many had dreams to one day move to Jackson Hole, a favorite vacation spot, and the pandemic encouraged them to act. We saw buyers urgently shopping for Jackson Hole real estate at all price points, adding tremendous demand to a market with, for the most part, a permanently limited supply of properties.

Now with the vaccine rollout and a hint of normalcy on the horizon, do people still need to escape? Is it a permanent lifestyle change or just a temporary exodus? Do these buyers miss the city enough to move back? Even if they do move back, will we see that inventory come back on the market? Or, will many elect to keep their newly purchased property as a vacation home? How much inventory (supply) do we need to see a real effect on pricing? Right now, the Jackson Hole market has the lowest level of inventory in recent history. Pre-pandemic, demand for Jackson Hole properties was strong. Even if we go back to previous levels, there will still be enough demand to eat up existing low inventory levels. Regardless of the demand changes, we would need to see supply increase significantly for pricing to be affected.

Looking back over the past 30 years, Jackson Hole real estate has seen, on average, 6-8% annual appreciation, with a 5-10% correction every 5 years or so. The Jackson Hole market has been growing at a strong pace for the past 5+ years, with 2020 being an explosive year. For example a newly built home in Town sold for $675,000 in 2014, sold again for $1,050,000 in 2018 and was just listed for $2,150,000 – and is under contract! Some will argue that these levels of appreciation simply cannot continue and at some point we will see a correction. In larger markets and pockets in the nation that may be true, but will we see a correction in Jackson Hole? Again, to see any affect on pricing we need to see a sharp drop in demand or a significant increase in supply. At this point, it’s hard to imagine either of those happening.  We are still seeing buyers from across the country move their money from the stock market into real estate. Jackson Hole will continue to be a draw for many who value a sense of community, outdoor recreation and mountain living.

I think 2021 will be another strong year for Jackson Hole real estate. Record low inventory levels will make it challenging for all buyers, creating competition and multiple offers. We may see fewer sales because there are simply less options on the market, but pricing and values will remain strong.

Advice for Sellers in 2021:

Track your property’s value in today’s market. Be familiar with comparable sales, but also focus on current inventory levels, which may have more impact on market value. Properties that are priced with those two things in mind (vs. putting an unreasonable price tag on it) are receiving the most interest and selling quickly. (Talk to Katie about an aggressive yet accurate pricing strategy.)

Strategize for mass market exposure. There are many buyers out there with limited options to buy. As a seller, you will have the most success if you can reach them all at once. Finding one buyer will not be difficult, your goal should be to bring all the interested buyers to the table at the same time in order to achieve your desired terms of sale. (Talk to Katie about her unique strategies to obtain mass market exposure.)

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers. Think about what terms are most important to you: price? leaseback? quick closing? Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: De-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return. (Have Katie join you for a tour of your home to discuss what you can do to increase your home’s value.)

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Advice for Buyers in 2021:

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? Are you learning about properties before they hit the market? (Talk to Katie to make sure she is on the look out for soon to be listed properties for you.)

Determine what you want and be ready to act quickly. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. Get all your ducks in a row now. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation? (Talk to Katie about proven strategies to “win” in these competitive situations.)

If you need to sell your home to buy something else, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens. Explore options that would allow you to purchase before selling (i.e. bridge financing, leasebacks, etc.) (Ask Katie to help you crunch numbers and brainstorm options.)

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Year End Listings Review – Jackson Hole

2020: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$2,175,597,500

LIST PRICE Volume

$3,176,055

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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Market Analysis

New Listings in 2020

Slightly fewer new listings came onto the market in 2020 than in 2019. For many years, the Jackson Hole real estate market has suffered from low inventory levels (and high demand) and this year was no different. Through the first two quarters, new inventory trailed 2019 by 40 listings. After demand for Jackson real estate exploded in Q3, more sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market for sale and new listings outpaced 2019 in the second half of the year. Despite seeing a total of 11 fewer new listings in all of 2020, the dollar volume of those 2020 listings was significantly higher.  New listing volume outpaced 2019 in 3 of the 4 quarters, finishing the year with $2.175 billion worth of new inventory – a staggering $323 million increase in new listing volume (with 11 fewer listings!). As a result, the average listing price jumped to over $3.1 million in 2020 (from $2.66 million in 2019). The median list price also increased in 2020, up over $2 million for the first time since I began tracking stats in 2013. An interesting thing happened in August of 2020: monthly sales started outpacing monthly new listings, meaning new properties hitting the market were not keeping pace with property purchases – further diminishing already low inventory levels and putting additional upward pressure on pricing.

Not surprising, 70% of new listings in 2020 were in excess of $1 million, with this segment seeing 32 more listings than in 2019. Breaking it down further, the largest shift occurred in the luxury market ($3+ million), which saw 83 more listings in 2020. All other segments under $3 million actually saw a decrease in new listings in 2020, with the $1-3 million price point seeing the largest drop (51 fewer listings than 2019). The breakdown in property type was consistent with 2019, so the shift in listing price can’t be explained by simply “more single family home listings” – prices were up across the board, with all property types seeing an increase in average listing prices.  That being said, we saw the largest spike in single family home listings come at the start of the third quarter, no doubt contributing to the record breaking sales numbers this past summer.

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$2,043,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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70%

Listings over $1 million

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Year End Sales Review – Jackson Hole

2020: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

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$1,799,973,233

Total Sales Volume

$2,799,336

Average Sales Price

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales in 2020
2020 was a tale of two markets – pre-pandemic and the early stages of the shut down and the resulting Jackson Hole real estate boom that followed. The first two quarters of 2020 actually lagged the 2019 market, which was a very strong year. Sale transactions were down in Q1 and Q2, while sales volume kept pace with 2019 through the second quarter. In mid-June, the Jackson Hole real estate market started to pick up and then exploded in the summer. The second half of 2020 saw 200 more sales than in the second half of 2019, an increase of 70% over 2019. Sales volume skyrocketed, dwarfing sales volume levels from 2019, recording $898 million MORE in sales volume in the second half of the year vs. 2019, an increase of 165%! After a modest increase in Q1, the average sales price was roughly $1 million higher each quarter through the end of 2020, ending at $2.8 million for the year 2020. The median sales price was also up in 2020, increasing $437,000 to just under $1,600,000.
Similar to 2019, the majority of property sales in 2020 occurred in the $1-3 million price point. However, the largest shifts in price point occurred in the high and low ends of the market. Homes selling for above $3 million represented nearly 30% of all sales in 2020, while that same segment accounted for only 15% of all sales in 2019. On the other end of the spectrum, after representing 14% of all sales in 2019, sales under $500,000 accounted for less than 5% of sales in 2020.
The average sale to list price ratio was 97% or higher in 8 out of 12 months in 2020, as increased demand weakened buyers ability to negotiate on price. In that vein, 170 property sales in 2020 were at or above their listing prices, meaning more than 1 out of every 4 sales sold for full price (or above). Compare that to 2019, when just 17% of all sales were at or above the listing price.
Single family homes accounted for more sales in 2020, representing 52% of all transactions (vs. 46% in 2019). Fewer condo and townhome sales occurred in 2020 (30% of all sales vs. 40% in 2019), while land sales got a boost in 2020 – accounting for 18% of all sales (up from 14% in 2019).
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$1,592,167

Average Median Sales Price

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18%

of Sales were Land Lots

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2020: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$2,175,597,500

LIST PRICE Volume

$3,176,055

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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Market Analysis

New Listings in 2020

Slightly fewer new listings came onto the market in 2020 than in 2019. For many years, the Jackson Hole real estate market has suffered from low inventory levels (and high demand) and this year was no different. Through the first two quarters, new inventory trailed 2019 by 40 listings. After demand for Jackson real estate exploded in Q3, more sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market for sale and new listings outpaced 2019 in the second half of the year. Despite seeing a total of 11 fewer new listings in all of 2020, the dollar volume of those 2020 listings was significantly higher.  New listing volume outpaced 2019 in 3 of the 4 quarters, finishing the year with $2.175 billion worth of new inventory – a staggering $323 million increase in new listing volume (with 11 fewer listings!). As a result, the average listing price jumped to over $3.1 million in 2020 (from $2.66 million in 2019). The median list price also increased in 2020, up over $2 million for the first time since I began tracking stats in 2013. An interesting thing happened in August of 2020: monthly sales started outpacing monthly new listings, meaning new properties hitting the market were not keeping pace with property purchases – further diminishing already low inventory levels and putting additional upward pressure on pricing.

Not surprising, 70% of new listings in 2020 were in excess of $1 million, with this segment seeing 32 more listings than in 2019. Breaking it down further, the largest shift occurred in the luxury market ($3+ million), which saw 83 more listings in 2020. All other segments under $3 million actually saw a decrease in new listings in 2020, with the $1-3 million price point seeing the largest drop (51 fewer listings than 2019). The breakdown in property type was consistent with 2019, so the shift in listing price can’t be explained by simply “more single family home listings” – prices were up across the board, with all property types seeing an increase in average listing prices.  That being said, we saw the largest spike in single family home listings come at the start of the third quarter, no doubt contributing to the record breaking sales numbers this past summer.

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$2,043,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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70%

Listings over $1 million

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Q4 Sales & New Listings

Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$2,950,273

Average Sales Price

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$705,115,180

Total Sales Volume

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Market Analysis

After a record setting Q3 2020 (with 100 more transactions and more than double the sales volume), it was hard to imagine the trend would continue past the busy summer selling season. Well, 4th quarter sales suggest things are not slowing down – recording 107 more transactions than Q4 in 2019. Even more impressive was the sold dollar volume this past quarter – up a staggering $450 million from the fourth quarter in 2019. Put another way, while the number of real estate sales increased 81% over Q4 2019, the sales volume increased 177% from this time last year. These unprecedented statistics illustrate an ongoing explosion of demand in Jackson Hole real estate as out of town buyers continue to flock to places like Jackson Hole amid the pandemic. This seemingly bottomless demand for the JH lifestyle helped push the average sales price up more than $1 million over the 4th quarter of 2019. Sale prices increased across the market, with the median sales price up every month, including a $1.2 million bump in November alone. Nearly every price point saw significant increases in sales, with the most notable shift occurring in the high end luxury market, where 60 more properties sold above $3 million in Q4 2020. The only segment not seeing a significant increase in sales was the entry level, where 2 fewer properties sold under $500,000 in Q4 2020. Vacant land sales experienced an unexpected surge in sales, representing 28% of all sales in Q4 2020 vs. 14% of sales in Q4 2019. As existing single family homes were snatched up this past summer, many buyers were forced to purchase building sites as an alternative way to get into the Jackson Hole market. Single family homes sales represented only 33% of sales in Q4 2020 (vs. 47% of sales in Q4 2019).

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New Listings – What’s New?

$3,771,141

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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$427,442,500

LIST PRICE Volume

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Market Analysis

New inventory was up in the fourth quarter, with 24 more listings hitting the market than in Q4 2019. More sellers put their properties on the market in October and November this year, no doubt encouraged by the booming real estate market. The dollar volume of those new listings also increased, up nearly $150 million over Q4 2019, thanks to a strong November that saw $172 million in new inventory hit the market. Overall, the average listing price was up in Q4 2020, with the majority of that increase coming from the month of November, where the average listing price was just under $4 million, up from $1.7 million in November 2019. The median list price followed a similar trend, with November’s median listing price $1.5 million higher than Nov 2019. The breakdown of listing price points was nearly identical between Q4 2020 and Q4 2019 with one exception – the luxury market ($3 million+) saw listings increase two fold, with nearly 50 properties entering the market in the last 3 months of 2020. Interestingly, this past December’s listings and listing volume didn’t see the same increases as the previous months in 2020. Listings, dollar volume and average/median listing prices were instead all on par with December 2019. Are things slowing down? Has everyone that wanted to sell already sold their properties? What is in store for inventory levels in 2021?

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Q3 Sales & New Listings

Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$2,940,989

Average Sales Price

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$735,247,347

Total Sales Volume

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Market Analysis

If you’ve been following the Jackson Hole real estate market at all this summer then it will come in no surprise to hear that we’ve had one of the most explosive third quarters in market history. All market statistics were up in Q3 2020, many significantly so. The 3rd quarter of 2020 (July-Aug-Sept) recorded nearly 100 more sales than Q3 last year, which was considered a strong quarter/year. Monthly sales exceeded 2019 in every month, nearly doubling last year’s numbers in August and September specifically. Even more dramatic, overall sales dollar volume in Q3 2020 dwarfed numbers seen last year, up a staggering $448 million. Monthly sales volume in Q3 2020 was over double that of 2019.
As expected, the average sales price of the third quarter this year increased significantly, up more than $1 million over Q3 2019. The median sales price also increased, up an average of $500,000 over the 3 months of the third quarter, and far outpacing median sales prices in each month. Similar to 2019, the majority of sales in Q3 2020 occurred in the $1-3 million price point, however in 2020 there were 36 more sales in this price point. The largest shift from last year was in the luxury high-end segment ($3+ million) where 48 more sales recorded this year vs Q3 2020, no doubt a contributor to the historic sales volume seen this summer in Jackson Hole. Over half of the sales in the third quarter were for single family homes, an increase from 2019. Interestingly, 2020 saw fewer condo / townhome sales and more land sales as many out-of-town buyers looked to purchase land as existing inventory continued to dwindle.
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New Listings – What’s New?

$3,410,444

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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$836,169,000

LIST PRICE Volume

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Market Analysis

It’s no doubt that demand for Jackson Hole real estate was up significantly this past summer, but how did things look on the supply/listing side? Overall new listings in Q3 2020 were up only slightly from 2019, mirroring monthly levels seen last year. While reporting a similar number of new listings as last year, the overall dollar volume of these listings increased dramatically, recording $200+ million more in volume in Q3 2020. Much of this increase can be attributed to a very strong September where a similar number of new listings hit the market but accounted for nearly $185 million more in listing volume than in Q3 2019. As a result, the average listing price for the third quarter increased nearly $1 million from this time last year. The average median list price for the quarter was also up, topping $2 million from $1.45 million in Q3 2019. Again, both helped by a very strong September which saw a monthly average list price over $4 million and a median list price of more than $3 million.
In an interesting flip from Q3 2019, the majority of new listings this summer were in the high-end luxury market with nearly 100 listings coming online priced above $3 million (compared to 46 new listings in Q3 2019). We saw significantly fewer new listings in the $1-3 million range while maintaining similar levels for price points under $1 million. As a response to the increased sales of building sites in Q3 2020, we saw an influx of vacant land listings, as many landowners saw this summer as a great opportunity to capture the new demand of out of town buyers frustrated by a lack of existing inventory.
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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Q2 Sales & New Listings

Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$2,303,461

Average Sales Price

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$145,118,024

Total Sales Volume

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Market Analysis

The Jackson Hole real estate market saw 63 sales in the second quarter of 2020, a far cry from the 110 sales in the second quarter of 2019. While 2019 was a strong year all around, this decline of 43% is significant. Every month of the second quarter showed notably fewer sales with the largest gap happening in May, when 2020 sales were less than half of sales in May 2019. This decline suggests that the pandemic played a role (at least initially) in buyer’s collective willingness to make real estate purchases in Jackson Hole. That being said, it appears the gap may be closing, with only 10 fewer sales in June vs 2019, perhaps an early indication of increasing interest/sales as we move through the summer with the influx of out of town visitors and buyers. Despite 42% fewer sales, dollar volume was nearly identical ($145 million in Q2 2020 vs $148 million in Q2 2019). As a result, the average sale price jumped nearly $1 million from the second quarter last year to Q2 this year, outpacing 2019 in every month (twice as high in the month of May!). The median sales price followed a similar trend, exceeding 2019 median sales prices by roughly 40% in every month of the second quarter.
In looking at the breakdown by price point, the $500,000 to $1 million segment saw 20 fewer sales in Q2 2020, while only 4 sales occurred under $500,000 (vs. 28 sales in Q2 2019). On the other end of the spectrum, the luxury end remained strong with an identical number of sales over $3 million (despite overall sales being down). More than 3 out of every 4 sales in the second quarter of 2020 was for a single family home vs. 35% in Q2 2019, no doubt a contributing factor to the higher prices/values.
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New Listings – What’s New?

$2,996,894

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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$605,785,000

LIST PRICE Volume

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Market Analysis

The number of new listings was down roughly 17% in the second quarter of 2020 with just over 200 properties hitting the market in April/May/June. Compare that to the second quarter of last year when 246 new properties entered the market. New listings in 2020 lagged 2019 in April and May, no doubt a result of sellers’ hesitation in the first few months of the COVID pandemic. Only in June of 2020 did new listings exceed 2019 with 6 more properties entering the market.
The dollar volume of new listings in Q2 2020 also declined, down 17% from Q2 2019. After seeing a similar listing dollar volume in April, both May and June under performed levels seen in 2019. The monthly average listing price fluctuated in 2020, from $3.3 million in April dropping to $2.3 million in May and jumping back up in June. The median list price followed a similar trend, but exceeded 2019 median list prices in every month of the second quarter, illustrating an overall increase in listing prices. The majority (46%) of new listings in Q2 2020 were in the $1-3 million range. Despite fewer listings, the luxury segment saw a similar number of new listings priced over $3 million (53 vs 56), while the entry level (under $500,000) dropped 50% from 16 to 8 new listings.
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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Q1 Sales & New Listings

Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$2,357,062

Average Sales Price

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$214,492,681

Total Sales Volume

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Market Analysis

Real estate sales in Jackson Hole in the first quarter of 2020 were slightly lower than sales in the first quarter last year. After just barely outpacing 2019 in January and February, a slower than usual March (with 7 fewer sales) contributed to an overall drop in sales from Q1 2019 to this year. Despite having 4 fewer sales, overall dollar volume was up about $15 million in Q1 2020, with higher monthly sales volume in all 3 months of the first quarter this year (even in March which had the 7 fewer sales). After seeing consistent average prices in January and February, the average sale price in March 2020 was up 44% versus March 2019, thanks to several high-end sales last month. As a result, the overall average sale price of Q1 2020 was up 12.5% versus Q1 2019. In looking at the median sale price, we see a somewhat similar trend. After falling short in both January and February, the median sales price in March was significantly higher, recording the highest median sale price in over a year and pulling the overall average of Q1 median sale prices in line with Q1 2019 ($1.415 million vs $1.453 million).

Which price point saw the most sales in the first quarter? Property sales in the $1-3 million range represented the majority of sales in each of the first 3 months in 2020, accounting for 40 of the 91 sales in the first quarter (44%). This is slightly higher than 2019, where 40% of sales occurred in this price point. The first quarter of 2020 saw 3 more high-end sales (above $3 million) but 11 fewer sales in the under $500,000 segment, a decline of 61%. While single family homes made up a similar percentage of sales in Q1 2020 versus Q1 2019, the first quarter of 2020 saw 9 more lot sales and 9 fewer condo/townhome sales than the first quarter of 2019.

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New Listings – What’s New?

$2,733,819

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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$306,201,000

LIST PRICE Volume

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Market Analysis

The number of new listings entering the market in the first quarter of 2020 was nearly identical to the first quarter of 2019, however the timing of these new listing entering the market was very different. January 2020’s 32 new listings paled in comparison to the 55 new listings in January 2019. This difference may be explained by the fact that after a dynamite 2018, many sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market in early 2019. February 2020 saw an unusually high number of new listings with 20 more properties hitting the market compared to February 2019. Finishing out the first quarter, new listings in March 2020 were consistent with March 2019. Despite having a similar number of new listings as Q1 2019, the dollar volume of the new listings in Q1 2020 was significantly higher, recording $93 million more in listing volume, an increase of 44%! Even though January 2020 saw 23 fewer sales than Jan 2019, dollar volume was strong ($110 million). February 2020’s new listing volume surpassed January, recording $88 million more in listing volume than February 2019. Finally, March 2020 outpaced March 2019 by $14 million. The average listing price has been declining since a high in December of $3.9 million, dipping below $2 million for the first time since November 2019. Despite the declining trend, the average listing price for the entire quarter was still nearly $1 million higher than the average listing price in Q1 2019. The median list price followed a similar trend. After a high of $2.3 million in January, we’ve seen a significant drop in each of the last two months, down to just above $1 million in March, the lowest median list price in over a year. However, the average median list price of Q1 2020 was still approx. $600,000 higher than this time last year.

The majority (40%) of new listings entered the market between $1-3 million in the first quarter of 2020. February was the most popular month for this price point with 20 new listings hitting the market. Interestingly, March saw a surge of listings in the $500,000 – $1 million segment, when 19 new options entered the market. Comparing quarter to quarter, 2020 saw more new listings in all price points (including the high-end where 10 more listings hit the market) with the exception of the entry level. There were only 5 new listings under $500,000 in the first 3 months of 2020 vs. 24 new listings in Q1 2019. Note: 18 of the 24 new listings represented the newly remodeled Virginian Village Condos, new to the market during Q1 last year.

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019 Jackson Hole Real Estate Summary & 2020 Forecast

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2020 Forecast

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

We all remember 2018 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, right? An explosive year where everything was up, way up! Transactions increased 13%, while overall sales volume jumped a staggering 38%, and the average sale price was up 22%. What a year! Could it continue? Surely this level of appreciation wasn’t sustainable? Many predicted a recession, or a the very least a stabilization after such a wild year. Well, the 2019 market in Jackson Hole did slow down, but just a bit. While not a significant correction like many were hoping / predicting, the numbers show that 2018 was most likely a “peak” year. With a similar level of sales in 2019, dollar volume decreased 6% and the average sale price dropped 4.5%. The median sale price increased, recording its highest mark in the last 5 years but that is more likely an indication of the “Virginian Village effect” (see sales section above) then a result of increasing sale prices. New this year, I analyzed properties that sold at or above their listing prices, which can help us understand overall demand, as these sales are usually a result of multiple and/or quick offers. In each year since 2016, more and more properties have sold at or above the asking price, peaking in 2018 at 114 property sales (nearly 1 in every 4 sales!). In 2019, with a similar level of overall sales, 87 properties sold at or above their listing price (or roughly 1 in every 6 properties). While not a drastic change, this is another indicator of demand slowing down from the highs of 2018.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

After peaking in 2015 (739 new listings), the amount of new inventory entering the market constricted in 2016, down 16% percent. New listing levels have been increasing year-over-year since 2017, recently up 10% from 2018 to 2019 (696 new listings) – marking the most significant increase in over 5 years. After seeing what the market did in 2018, sellers may have wanted to take advantage and cash out, listing their property for sale in 2019. When more inventory (supply) enters the market, this can put downward pressure on pricing, perhaps explaining the slight decline in both sales volume and average sales prices in 2019. Obviously this isn’t true for the entire market, as certain pockets (Town under $1.3 million for example) continue to see high demand (and increasing prices). However, even though there were more listings in 2019, we saw the same amount of sales as 2018 (with fewer new listings), perhaps as some potential buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for a larger market correction.

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2020 Forecast

After a exceptionally strong 2018, I predicted that the unprecedented rate of market acceleration could not continue (see my 2019 forecast). After seeing things slow a bit in 2019, what will 2020 bring? Will things continue to slow or plateau like 2019 or will high demand for Jackson Hole properties once again push pricing upward?

Talks of a pending recession still abound, but will it happen in Jackson? It seems unlikely. Jackson Hole remains a highly desirable place to live for year round families and second homeowners alike. As more and more people can work remotely, many want to make living the dream in Jackson Hole a reality. That will probably never change. As people continue to move here, they will continue to compete for properties with the local buyers. Unfortunately, this can lead to the local working people getting squeezed – beaten out by cash offers and buyers willing to pay over market value to get their spot in Jackson Hole. I predict it getting continually harder and harder for local buyers to enter the market, and increasingly difficult to move up in the market (without taking on a higher mortgage in the process).

There is always uncertainty with an election year. Add to that global trade talks and impeachment hearings and many people are holding their breath and watching the market closely. That being said, many investors are cash heavy, waiting for any recession induced opportunities, suggesting that any slight down turn will be immediately buoyed by an increase in demand.

In a unique market like Jackson Hole, where the supply of land is permanently limited due to publicly held land and  conservation easements, it’s hard to imagine we will see enough new supply (or a decrease in demand) to result in any significant downtown. Happy 2020!

 

Advice for Sellers in 2020:

Know how your property’s “micro-market”. Certain segments of the market are seeing different levels of demand. Be familiar with recent comps, but even more importantly, current inventory / competition in your segment.

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers in certain segments. Think about what terms are most important to you. Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return.

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Advice for Buyers in 2020:

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? What types of properties are selling quickly?

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly as inventory in certain segments remains low. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation?

If you need to sell to buy, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens.

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: Year End Review – Jackson Hole

2019: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

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$890,085,959

Total Sales Volume

$1,805,448

Average Sales Price

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Market Analysis

After an explosive 2018 that saw a 13% annual increase in sales and a staggering 38% increase in dollar volume, many predicted that the market would slow in 2019, many thought the market was in need of a correction. The number of real estate sales did not slow down in 2019, recording a nearly identical number of sales as 2018. After under performing 2018 in the first two quarters, transactions increased in Q3 and Q4 of 2019, netting a total of 493 sales* (vs. 494 sales in 2018). What did change in 2019 was the overall dollar volume, dropping 6% percent from 2018, to $890,000,000* in 2019. After starting the year off strong  (2019 Q1 sales volume was up 50% from 2018 Q1), the second quarter of 2019 really under preformed 2018, recording just over half of the sales volume seen in the 2nd quarter of 2018. While the second half of 2019 recorded similar numbers to the same time in 2018, the overall dollar volume of 2019 still came up $45 million short of 2018. With a similar level of sales and less dollar volume, it’s no surprise that the average sale price followed a similar trend (high in Q1, low in Q2 and pretty even in Q3 & Q4) with the end of year average dropping $85,000 (4.5%) to just over $1.8 million. In analyzing the price point breakdown in 2019 vs 2018, a few trends become clear:

  1. The high end market saw a similar level of sales in 2019 (74 vs 76 in 2018). Digging deeper, shows that overall dollar volume of this segment was down 3.5% in 2019, accounting for $412 million in total volume.
  2. Sales seemed to shift from the locals market ($500,000 – $1,000,000), which was down 17%, to the $1-3 million range, which was up 9% from 2018.
  3. The most dramatic change occurred in the sub $500,000 market, where nearly 50% MORE sales occurred in 2019. The 24 additional sales in this price point can be almost entirely explained by the sales of the Virginian Village condos. Condominiumized by the developer several years ago, these 1 and 2 bedroom units located in the heart of Jackson were completely renovated with new appliances, flooring, kitchens, baths, etc. After selling several units FSBO, the remaining units were put on the market with Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates and accounted for 26 sales between Feb – Dec 2019. These condos were in high demand, selling one after the other, with 1 bedrooms selling between $302,000 – $325,000 and 2 bedrooms selling between $402,500 – $435,000.
This influx of inventory and sales in the entry level market, can help explain why, despite a decrease in average sales price, the average monthly median sales price in 2019 was actually up, increasing to $1.15 million from $1.09 million in 2018. With more sales in the bottom end of the market, the median (which measures the middle of the market sales) was pushed up in 2019 because of the additional 26 sales on the low end. In analyzing the property type breakdown, it shows that single family home sales decreased 5%, representing 46% of all sales in 2019, while townhome/condo sales increased in 2019, up 6% representing 40% of all sales. Again, most likely a result of the 26 Virginian Village condo sales in 2019. Land sales represented a similar amount of sales in 2019 (14% vs 12% in 2018).
*Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for 2019, excluding fractional sales and duplicate entries. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.
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$1,155,979

Average Median Sales Price

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14%

of Sales were Land Lots

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2019: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$1,852,044,899

LIST PRICE Volume

$2,660,984

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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Market Analysis

Buyers had more options in 2019, as 696 new residential listings entered the market, compared to 632 in 2018, an increase of 10%. New inventory levels outpaced 2018 in the first 3 quarters of 2019, with an especially strong Q3 that saw 40 more new listings than the same period in 2018. While the number of new listings increased 10%, the dollar volume of those new listings jumped up 15%, with $243 million more in dollar volume than in 2018. New listing volume outpaced 2018 in 3 of the 4 quarters, with a very strong Q2 seeing $200 million more in listing volume than in Q2 2018. So, not only was more inventory entering the market in 2019, but it did so at higher price points. As a result, the average listing price increased 4.5%, up to $2.66 million in 2019. Sixty-five percent of 2019’s new listings were in excess of $1 million, with the majority (44%) in the $1-3 million range. Fifty-seven properties entered the market priced under $500,000, with the Virginian Village condos accounting for roughly half (28) of the listings. Single family homes accounted for just over 50% of new listings in 2019.

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$1,412,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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65%

Listings over $1 million

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.