Supply/Demand Archives - Katie Brady Real Estate

2021: March Market Report in Jackson Hole

April 12, 2021/in Average Sales Price, Buyers, Days on Market, Inventory Levels, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Listing Prices, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, New Listings, Real Estate Sales, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report/by Molly Stewart

Despite dwindling levels of inventory, real estate sales increased slightly in March with 48 transactions, more than double the number of sales last March 2020. While recording two more sales than February, total sales volume increased $18 million to $156 million. The average sale price topped $3 million for the third time in the last 5 months. The average number of days a property was on the market before closing dipped to 115, the lowest monthly average since September 2019, an illustration of the quick pace of homes going under contract soon after hitting the market. Demand remains high for Jackson Hole properties. Nearly half of all properties sold at or above their listing price in March – 13 sales at full listing price and 10 properties selling ABOVE the asking price, no doubt a result of multiple offers and bidding wars, a trend that is now becoming very common in our market. It’s interesting to note that 11 sales in March were undisclosed (marked a $0 in MLS), so applying the same rate, we could assume at least 5 more sales occurred at or above their listing prices, meaning that close to 60% of March sales were for full price or greater! As a result, after hitting a high of 99% in February, the average sale to list price ratio was 100% in March, a number never seen since I began tracking stats in 2013.

The majority (44%) of sales in March were for single family homes. With low available inventory, vacant lot sales remained strong, representing 23% of all transactions last month. Seventy (70%) percent of sales occurred above $1,000,000 in March, with half those sales occurring above $3 million, including a 7,400 sq ft 3 Creek house listed for $12.25 million, a ranch lot in Bar BC listed for $8.75 million and a 5 bedroom home in Teton Pines listed for $10.5 million.

New listings increased in March with 45 properties entering the market, the highest number of monthly listings in the last 6 months and slightly more than new listings in March of 2020. With an increase in listings came an increase in dollar volume with March’s new listings totaling more than $175 million. Not only is this the highest monthly listing volume since September 2020, it is also $114 million more than March 2020, which had only 5 fewer listings. Not surprising, the average listing price nearly reached $4 million in March 2021, up $2 million from March 2020! Thirteen new lot listings entered the market, the highest monthly total since September 2020, with an average listing price of $2.9 million.

Thirty-five of the 45 new listings were in excess of $1 million, while less than 1 in 4 properties entering the market in March was priced under the $1 million mark, including an 2 bedroom Elk Run townhome, a 1 bedroom condo in the Aspens and a 3 bedroom townhome in Cottonwood Flats, all of which received multiple offers pushing the contract price well over the listing price.

Currently there are just 46 total listings for residential property in Teton County. Available condos range from a Miller Park Loft unit for $549,000 to a 3 bedroom Four Seasons unit for $6,950,000. The least expensive single family home property is $3.1 million (a 1 bedroom ARU with room to build a main house). There are only 19 lots available for sale in Teton County, less than 2 months supply of inventory (based on last year’s 118 lot sales).

2020: Year End Review – Five Year Trends and 2021 Forecast

January 20, 2021/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Buyers, Condos, Days on Market, Foreclosure Properties, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Investment Property, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Multi-family, New Listings, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Real Estate Sales – Past 5 years

Well, 2020 was a year for the record books as statistics from this past year dwarfed all previous years. MLS sales had not exceeded 500 per year over the last 5 years and almost reached 650 in 2020 (a 37% increase over the previous 4 year average). Sales volume experienced even bigger gains in 2020. Looking back, we saw annual sales volume increasing from $634 million to $676 million from 2016 to 2017. The market took a jump in 2018, when sales volume increased more than $250 million from the previous year – a staggering 38% increase (with only a 13% increase in sales). The market stayed steady in 2019, with a similar level of sales and slightly less sales volume (about a 5% drop), a healthy sign after a very strong 2018. Enter 2020, where sales volume skyrocketed – up to $1.8 billion – more than DOUBLE the average annual sales volume of the previous 4 years. To put it in perspective: 2020 saw as much sales volume as 2018 & 2019 COMBINED!

As to be expected, the average sales price also experienced a record breaking increase, with the trend following that of sales volume: Average sales price hovered around $1.5 million in 2016 & 2017, jumped up to $1,892,000 in 2018 and cooled slightly in 2019 to just above $1.8 million. The average sales price in 2020 was $2.8 million, a $1,000,000 increase from 2019 and a 68% increase over the previous 4 year average. Wow! These record breaking increases were a result of unprecedented demand, as many out of town buyers flocked to Jackson Hole and competed with local buyers on property purchases. What resulted were many multiple offer situations, contributing to 170 properties selling at or above their listing prices in 2020 (more than 1 in every 4 sales). Compare that to the previous 4 years, where the highest percentage was 23% in 2018 (and only 17% last year). It’s interesting to track the various price points over the past 4 years. The $1-3 million segment follows the overall market growth, mirroring increases in overall sales and volume. In contrast, the luxury segment saw oversized growth in 2020. Back in 2017, there were just 42 sales in this high end segment. In 2018, sales in this segment jumped along with the overall market, recording 76 sales. After seeing a similar level of sales in 2019, this segment exploded in 2020 with 186 sales over $3 million, more than double the number of sales in the previous two years combined. On the other end of the spectrum, sales under $500,000 dropped off considerably in 2020, representing less than 5% of all sales.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

In a year of unprecedented demand, the Jackson Hole market saw a decline in inventory levels in 2020. Looking back over the past 5 years, new listings in 2016-2018 ranged between 613-632 per year. As a result of a busy 2018 in sales, sellers responded and new listings jumped in 2019, with nearly 700 new listings hitting the market. In 2020, inventory levels actually dropped, with barely enough new listings (685) to replace the 643 sales in 2020. It’s interesting to analyze the gap between sales and new listings over the past 5 years. In 2016 & 2017, new listings outpaced sales by 170 properties each year. In 2018, inventory tightened a bit, with 138 more listings than sales. In 2019, more listings hit the market, an increase in supply which held sales (and dollar volume) steady, as new listings outpaced sales by 203 properties. Compare those trends to 2020, where the gap between listings and sales was only 42, by far the lowest supply to demand (sales) we’ve seen yet.

Despite seeing fewer listings in 2020, the listing volume increased significantly from 2019, recording 17% more in volume (with 11 fewer listings). Looking back over the last 5 years, listing volume has increased each year, growing by roughly $250 million in the past 2 years in particular. The year 2020 saw a $325 million increase from 2019, pretty amazing considering there were actually fewer new listings in 2020! After increasing 12% in 2018, and holding steady in 2019 at just under $2.5 million, the average listing price jumped significantly in 2020 – up to more than $3.2 million, a 30% increase over 2019.

By all accounts, 2020 in the Jackson Hole real estate market was one for the record books. Annual sales were up 30% and overall sales volume in 2020 was more than double that of 2019. The average sales price was $1 million higher than in 2019. Fewer listings came onto the market, but did so at higher prices as listing volume increased 17% and the average listing price nearly reached $3.2 million.

The global pandemic had buyers from all over the country, many of whom could now work remotely, escaping to less populated areas with access to the outdoors. Many had dreams to one day move to Jackson Hole, a favorite vacation spot, and the pandemic encouraged them to act. We saw buyers urgently shopping for Jackson Hole real estate at all price points, adding tremendous demand to a market with, for the most part, a permanently limited supply of properties.

Now with the vaccine rollout and a hint of normalcy on the horizon, do people still need to escape? Is it a permanent lifestyle change or just a temporary exodus? Do these buyers miss the city enough to move back? Even if they do move back, will we see that inventory come back on the market? Or, will many elect to keep their newly purchased property as a vacation home? How much inventory (supply) do we need to see a real effect on pricing? Right now, the Jackson Hole market has the lowest level of inventory in recent history. Pre-pandemic, demand for Jackson Hole properties was strong. Even if we go back to previous levels, there will still be enough demand to eat up existing low inventory levels. Regardless of the demand changes, we would need to see supply increase significantly for pricing to be affected.

Looking back over the past 30 years, Jackson Hole real estate has seen, on average, 6-8% annual appreciation, with a 5-10% correction every 5 years or so. The Jackson Hole market has been growing at a strong pace for the past 5+ years, with 2020 being an explosive year. For example a newly built home in Town sold for $675,000 in 2014, sold again for $1,050,000 in 2018 and was just listed for $2,150,000 – and is under contract! Some will argue that these levels of appreciation simply cannot continue and at some point we will see a correction. In larger markets and pockets in the nation that may be true, but will we see a correction in Jackson Hole? Again, to see any affect on pricing we need to see a sharp drop in demand or a significant increase in supply. At this point, it’s hard to imagine either of those happening. We are still seeing buyers from across the country move their money from the stock market into real estate. Jackson Hole will continue to be a draw for many who value a sense of community, outdoor recreation and mountain living.

I think 2021 will be another strong year for Jackson Hole real estate. Record low inventory levels will make it challenging for all buyers, creating competition and multiple offers. We may see fewer sales because there are simply less options on the market, but pricing and values will remain strong.

Track your property’s value in today’s market. Be familiar with comparable sales, but also focus on current inventory levels, which may have more impact on market value. Properties that are priced with those two things in mind (vs. putting an unreasonable price tag on it) are receiving the most interest and selling quickly. (Talk to Katie about an aggressive yet accurate pricing strategy.)

Strategize for mass market exposure. There are many buyers out there with limited options to buy. As a seller, you will have the most success if you can reach them all at once. Finding one buyer will not be difficult, your goal should be to bring all the interested buyers to the table at the same time in order to achieve your desired terms of sale. (Talk to Katie about her unique strategies to obtain mass market exposure.)

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers. Think about what terms are most important to you: price? leaseback? quick closing? Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: De-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return. (Have Katie join you for a tour of your home to discuss what you can do to increase your home’s value.)

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? Are you learning about properties before they hit the market? (Talk to Katie to make sure she is on the look out for soon to be listed properties for you.)

Determine what you want and be ready to act quickly. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. Get all your ducks in a row now. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation? (Talk to Katie about proven strategies to “win” in these competitive situations.)

If you need to sell your home to buy something else, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens. Explore options that would allow you to purchase before selling (i.e. bridge financing, leasebacks, etc.) (Ask Katie to help you crunch numbers and brainstorm options.)

2020: Year End Listings Review – Jackson Hole

January 19, 2021/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Buyers, Condos, Days on Market, Foreclosure Properties, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Investment Property, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Multi-family, New Listings, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

New Listings in 2020

Slightly fewer new listings came onto the market in 2020 than in 2019. For many years, the Jackson Hole real estate market has suffered from low inventory levels (and high demand) and this year was no different. Through the first two quarters, new inventory trailed 2019 by 40 listings. After demand for Jackson real estate exploded in Q3, more sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market for sale and new listings outpaced 2019 in the second half of the year. Despite seeing a total of 11 fewer new listings in all of 2020, the dollar volume of those 2020 listings was significantly higher. New listing volume outpaced 2019 in 3 of the 4 quarters, finishing the year with $2.175 billion worth of new inventory – a staggering $323 million increase in new listing volume (with 11 fewer listings!). As a result, the average listing price jumped to over $3.1 million in 2020 (from $2.66 million in 2019). The median list price also increased in 2020, up over $2 million for the first time since I began tracking stats in 2013. An interesting thing happened in August of 2020: monthly sales started outpacing monthly new listings, meaning new properties hitting the market were not keeping pace with property purchases – further diminishing already low inventory levels and putting additional upward pressure on pricing.

Not surprising, 70% of new listings in 2020 were in excess of $1 million, with this segment seeing 32 more listings than in 2019. Breaking it down further, the largest shift occurred in the luxury market ($3+ million), which saw 83 more listings in 2020. All other segments under $3 million actually saw a decrease in new listings in 2020, with the $1-3 million price point seeing the largest drop (51 fewer listings than 2019). The breakdown in property type was consistent with 2019, so the shift in listing price can’t be explained by simply “more single family home listings” – prices were up across the board, with all property types seeing an increase in average listing prices. That being said, we saw the largest spike in single family home listings come at the start of the third quarter, no doubt contributing to the record breaking sales numbers this past summer.

2020: Year End Sales Review – Jackson Hole

January 18, 2021/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Buyers, Condos, Days on Market, Foreclosure Properties, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Investment Property, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Multi-family, New Listings, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Real Estate Sales in 2020

2020 was a tale of two markets – pre-pandemic and the early stages of the shut down and the resulting Jackson Hole real estate boom that followed. The first two quarters of 2020 actually lagged the 2019 market, which was a very strong year. Sale transactions were down in Q1 and Q2, while sales volume kept pace with 2019 through the second quarter. In mid-June, the Jackson Hole real estate market started to pick up and then exploded in the summer. The second half of 2020 saw 200 more sales than in the second half of 2019, an increase of 70% over 2019. Sales volume skyrocketed, dwarfing sales volume levels from 2019, recording $898 million MORE in sales volume in the second half of the year vs. 2019, an increase of 165%! After a modest increase in Q1, the average sales price was roughly $1 million higher each quarter through the end of 2020, ending at $2.8 million for the year 2020. The median sales price was also up in 2020, increasing $437,000 to just under $1,600,000.

Similar to 2019, the majority of property sales in 2020 occurred in the $1-3 million price point. However, the largest shifts in price point occurred in the high and low ends of the market. Homes selling for above $3 million represented nearly 30% of all sales in 2020, while that same segment accounted for only 15% of all sales in 2019. On the other end of the spectrum, after representing 14% of all sales in 2019, sales under $500,000 accounted for less than 5% of sales in 2020.

The average sale to list price ratio was 97% or higher in 8 out of 12 months in 2020, as increased demand weakened buyers ability to negotiate on price. In that vein, 170 property sales in 2020 were at or above their listing prices, meaning more than 1 out of every 4 sales sold for full price (or above). Compare that to 2019, when just 17% of all sales were at or above the listing price.

Single family homes accounted for more sales in 2020, representing 52% of all transactions (vs. 46% in 2019). Fewer condo and townhome sales occurred in 2020 (30% of all sales vs. 40% in 2019), while land sales got a boost in 2020 – accounting for 18% of all sales (up from 14% in 2019).

New Listings in 2020

Slightly fewer new listings came onto the market in 2020 than in 2019. For many years, the Jackson Hole real estate market has suffered from low inventory levels (and high demand) and this year was no different. Through the first two quarters, new inventory trailed 2019 by 40 listings. After demand for Jackson real estate exploded in Q3, more sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market for sale and new listings outpaced 2019 in the second half of the year. Despite seeing a total of 11 fewer new listings in all of 2020, the dollar volume of those 2020 listings was significantly higher. New listing volume outpaced 2019 in 3 of the 4 quarters, finishing the year with $2.175 billion worth of new inventory – a staggering $323 million increase in new listing volume (with 11 fewer listings!). As a result, the average listing price jumped to over $3.1 million in 2020 (from $2.66 million in 2019). The median list price also increased in 2020, up over $2 million for the first time since I began tracking stats in 2013. An interesting thing happened in August of 2020: monthly sales started outpacing monthly new listings, meaning new properties hitting the market were not keeping pace with property purchases – further diminishing already low inventory levels and putting additional upward pressure on pricing.

Not surprising, 70% of new listings in 2020 were in excess of $1 million, with this segment seeing 32 more listings than in 2019. Breaking it down further, the largest shift occurred in the luxury market ($3+ million), which saw 83 more listings in 2020. All other segments under $3 million actually saw a decrease in new listings in 2020, with the $1-3 million price point seeing the largest drop (51 fewer listings than 2019). The breakdown in property type was consistent with 2019, so the shift in listing price can’t be explained by simply “more single family home listings” – prices were up across the board, with all property types seeing an increase in average listing prices. That being said, we saw the largest spike in single family home listings come at the start of the third quarter, no doubt contributing to the record breaking sales numbers this past summer.

2019 Jackson Hole Real Estate Summary & 2020 Forecast

January 20, 2020/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Building Site, Buyers, Condos, Condos under $500, Days on Market, East Jackson, Grand Teton National Park, High End Real Estate, Housing, Inventory Levels, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Land/Building Sites, Listing Prices, Luxury Property, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Real Estate Sales, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, Townhome, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

We all remember 2018 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, right? An explosive year where everything was up, way up! Transactions increased 13%, while overall sales volume jumped a staggering 38%, and the average sale price was up 22%. What a year! Could it continue? Surely this level of appreciation wasn’t sustainable? Many predicted a recession, or a the very least a stabilization after such a wild year. Well, the 2019 market in Jackson Hole did slow down, but just a bit. While not a significant correction like many were hoping / predicting, the numbers show that 2018 was most likely a “peak” year. With a similar level of sales in 2019, dollar volume decreased 6% and the average sale price dropped 4.5%. The median sale price increased, recording its highest mark in the last 5 years but that is more likely an indication of the “Virginian Village effect” (see sales section above) then a result of increasing sale prices. New this year, I analyzed properties that sold at or above their listing prices, which can help us understand overall demand, as these sales are usually a result of multiple and/or quick offers. In each year since 2016, more and more properties have sold at or above the asking price, peaking in 2018 at 114 property sales (nearly 1 in every 4 sales!). In 2019, with a similar level of overall sales, 87 properties sold at or above their listing price (or roughly 1 in every 6 properties). While not a drastic change, this is another indicator of demand slowing down from the highs of 2018.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

After peaking in 2015 (739 new listings), the amount of new inventory entering the market constricted in 2016, down 16% percent. New listing levels have been increasing year-over-year since 2017, recently up 10% from 2018 to 2019 (696 new listings) – marking the most significant increase in over 5 years. After seeing what the market did in 2018, sellers may have wanted to take advantage and cash out, listing their property for sale in 2019. When more inventory (supply) enters the market, this can put downward pressure on pricing, perhaps explaining the slight decline in both sales volume and average sales prices in 2019. Obviously this isn’t true for the entire market, as certain pockets (Town under $1.3 million for example) continue to see high demand (and increasing prices). However, even though there were more listings in 2019, we saw the same amount of sales as 2018 (with fewer new listings), perhaps as some potential buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for a larger market correction.

After a exceptionally strong 2018, I predicted that the unprecedented rate of market acceleration could not continue (see my 2019 forecast). After seeing things slow a bit in 2019, what will 2020 bring? Will things continue to slow or plateau like 2019 or will high demand for Jackson Hole properties once again push pricing upward?

Talks of a pending recession still abound, but will it happen in Jackson? It seems unlikely. Jackson Hole remains a highly desirable place to live for year round families and second homeowners alike. As more and more people can work remotely, many want to make living the dream in Jackson Hole a reality. That will probably never change. As people continue to move here, they will continue to compete for properties with the local buyers. Unfortunately, this can lead to the local working people getting squeezed – beaten out by cash offers and buyers willing to pay over market value to get their spot in Jackson Hole. I predict it getting continually harder and harder for local buyers to enter the market, and increasingly difficult to move up in the market (without taking on a higher mortgage in the process).

There is always uncertainty with an election year. Add to that global trade talks and impeachment hearings and many people are holding their breath and watching the market closely. That being said, many investors are cash heavy, waiting for any recession induced opportunities, suggesting that any slight down turn will be immediately buoyed by an increase in demand.

In a unique market like Jackson Hole, where the supply of land is permanently limited due to publicly held land and conservation easements, it’s hard to imagine we will see enough new supply (or a decrease in demand) to result in any significant downtown. Happy 2020!

Know how your property’s “micro-market”. Certain segments of the market are seeing different levels of demand. Be familiar with recent comps, but even more importantly, current inventory / competition in your segment.

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers in certain segments. Think about what terms are most important to you. Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return.

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? What types of properties are selling quickly?

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly as inventory in certain segments remains low. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation?

If you need to sell to buy, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens.

2019: Year End Review – Jackson Hole

January 18, 2020/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Buyers, Condos, Days on Market, Foreclosure Properties, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Investment Property, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Multi-family, New Listings, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

After an explosive 2018 that saw a 13% annual increase in sales and a staggering 38% increase in dollar volume, many predicted that the market would slow in 2019, many thought the market was in need of a correction. The number of real estate sales did not slow down in 2019, recording a nearly identical number of sales as 2018. After under performing 2018 in the first two quarters, transactions increased in Q3 and Q4 of 2019, netting a total of 493 sales* (vs. 494 sales in 2018). What did change in 2019 was the overall dollar volume, dropping 6% percent from 2018, to $890,000,000* in 2019. After starting the year off strong (2019 Q1 sales volume was up 50% from 2018 Q1), the second quarter of 2019 really under preformed 2018, recording just over half of the sales volume seen in the 2nd quarter of 2018. While the second half of 2019 recorded similar numbers to the same time in 2018, the overall dollar volume of 2019 still came up $45 million short of 2018. With a similar level of sales and less dollar volume, it’s no surprise that the average sale price followed a similar trend (high in Q1, low in Q2 and pretty even in Q3 & Q4) with the end of year average dropping $85,000 (4.5%) to just over $1.8 million. In analyzing the price point breakdown in 2019 vs 2018, a few trends become clear:

The high end market saw a similar level of sales in 2019 (74 vs 76 in 2018). Digging deeper, shows that overall dollar volume of this segment was down 3.5% in 2019, accounting for $412 million in total volume.
Sales seemed to shift from the locals market ($500,000 – $1,000,000), which was down 17%, to the $1-3 million range, which was up 9% from 2018.
The most dramatic change occurred in the sub $500,000 market, where nearly 50% MORE sales occurred in 2019. The 24 additional sales in this price point can be almost entirely explained by the sales of the Virginian Village condos. Condominiumized by the developer several years ago, these 1 and 2 bedroom units located in the heart of Jackson were completely renovated with new appliances, flooring, kitchens, baths, etc. After selling several units FSBO, the remaining units were put on the market with Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates and accounted for 26 sales between Feb – Dec 2019. These condos were in high demand, selling one after the other, with 1 bedrooms selling between $302,000 – $325,000 and 2 bedrooms selling between $402,500 – $435,000.

This influx of inventory and sales in the entry level market, can help explain why, despite a decrease in average sales price, the average monthly median sales price in 2019 was actually up, increasing to $1.15 million from $1.09 million in 2018. With more sales in the bottom end of the market, the median (which measures the middle of the market sales) was pushed up in 2019 because of the additional 26 sales on the low end. In analyzing the property type breakdown, it shows that single family home sales decreased 5%, representing 46% of all sales in 2019, while townhome/condo sales increased in 2019, up 6% representing 40% of all sales. Again, most likely a result of the 26 Virginian Village condo sales in 2019. Land sales represented a similar amount of sales in 2019 (14% vs 12% in 2018).

*Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for 2019, excluding fractional sales and duplicate entries. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Buyers had more options in 2019, as 696 new residential listings entered the market, compared to 632 in 2018, an increase of 10%. New inventory levels outpaced 2018 in the first 3 quarters of 2019, with an especially strong Q3 that saw 40 more new listings than the same period in 2018. While the number of new listings increased 10%, the dollar volume of those new listings jumped up 15%, with $243 million more in dollar volume than in 2018. New listing volume outpaced 2018 in 3 of the 4 quarters, with a very strong Q2 seeing $200 million more in listing volume than in Q2 2018. So, not only was more inventory entering the market in 2019, but it did so at higher price points. As a result, the average listing price increased 4.5%, up to $2.66 million in 2019. Sixty-five percent of 2019’s new listings were in excess of $1 million, with the majority (44%) in the $1-3 million range. Fifty-seven properties entered the market priced under $500,000, with the Virginian Village condos accounting for roughly half (28) of the listings. Single family homes accounted for just over 50% of new listings in 2019.

2018: September Market Report

October 8, 2018/in Buyers, Market Report, Market Reports, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, New Listings, Real Estate Sales, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Supply/Demand/by Molly Stewart

After a busy summer listing season that saw over 330 new listings hit the market, activity cooled in September with only 40 new property listings, reflecting less than half the summer average of 83 new listings/month. The average listing price in September was close to $4 million (significantly higher than the summer average of $2.8 million), as 8 new listings hit the market priced over $5 million, including 2 estates advertised for $19 million each. While high priced listings can inflate the average, a more telling statistic is the median list price, which actually dropped down to $1.1 million in September – the lowest since before summer. Four properties were listed under $600,000, with two of them already under contract, including a 2 bed / 1 bath townhome backing up to Cottonwood Park. Eight new lot listings came onto the market in September, with a median list price of $1 million. Two of those listings (both priced under $1 million) are already under contract.

After a busy summer (and especially busy August), real estate sales dropped off in September, with 43 sales. Overall dollar volume also dropped, dipping below $75 million for the first time since May 2018. While the transaction levels are similar to this time last year (40 sales in Sept 2017), sales volume is $13 million higher. As a result, the average sales price remained consistently strong, marking the 4^th month in a row at or above $1.7 million. The median sales price, however, increased significantly in September, up a whopping 55% from August, as 60% of sales occurred over $1 million (including 7 over $3 million). Of the 40% of sales occurring in the sub $1 million market, only 3 of them were under $500,000, including a 1 bedroom East Jackson condo that sold at full list price of $346,000. The market remains competitive as 60% of all Sept sales closed within 90 days of listing. While only 7 properties sold at or above the listing price (this stat has reached 33% in the past), many sold very close to listing price.

“Middle Market” Hot: Half of all sales in July occur in $500,000 – $1,000,000 price range

August 9, 2016/in Building Site, Condos, Entry level market, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Land/Building Sites, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Update, Over $1 million, Rafter J, Real Estate Sales, Single family homes, Supply/Demand/by Molly Stewart

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Aug 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

What Sold in July 2016?

48% :: Percentage of single family home sales (back to average)
39% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (similar to last month)
13% :: Percentage of Land Sales (up after 2 low months)

35% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (down from last month)
65% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (up from last month)
10% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (down again)

What it means: The breakdown of sales across property types returned to typical levels in July, with single family home sales representing just under 1/2 of all sales. Condos and townhome sales remained similar to last month, but were still a bit below average. Land sales picked up after two months of decline, most likely a result of low inventory levels (i.e. when buyers can’t find an existing house they desire, they may to turn to land to build what they want). Entry level sales took another dip after starting out strong this past spring. Only 10% of all sales occurred under $500,000 in July, the second lowest percentage in the past year (see chart below). As prices continue to rise, the entry level market is shrinking. The hot spot this summer is proving to be the “middle market” ($500,000 – $1,000,000). In June, 36% of all sales occurred in this price range and in July this segment accounted for over 50% of all sales! Sales in this segment included several townhomes and single family homes in Rafter J and Cottonwood Park, which remain popular with local buyers. As a result, property sales over $1 million took a dip after increasing for two straight months, accounting for only 35% of all sales (vs. 45% in June). Further, there were zero high end property sales (defined as sales over $3 million) in July, the first such time this has occurred in the past 12 months.

Walden Pond Twinhome in Rafter J – one of many sales in the mid market price range in July (listed by JH Sotheby’s)

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for Aug 2016.

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Sales and dollar volume down again, available inventory lowest since 2007: Mid Year update from The Jackson Hole Report

August 2, 2016/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Building Site, Condos, Entry level market, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Land/Building Sites, Listing Prices, Luxury Property, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Over $1 million, RE/MAX Obsidian, Real Estate Sales, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Townhome, Uncategorized, Under $500/by Molly Stewart

Sale transactions and dollar volume are down again in the second quarter of 2016, mostly due to dwindling well-priced inventory under $1 million. The Jackson Hole Report, a quarterly market report prepared by my colleague David Viehman at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, provides insights into the local real estate market through the end of the 2nd quarter 2016. Click HERE to read the full 2016 Mid Year Report. A summary of statistics/trends follows:

OVERALL MARKET

Total number of Sale Transactions are down 16%
Sales under $1 million are down 21%
Overall dollar volume is down 14%
Despite dwindling sales, the Average Sale Price increased by 3% in Q2 2016
Hot Price Point: Properties priced under $1 million, where 53% of the sales occurred in the second quarter
Hot Location: The Town of Jackson, which accounted for 35% of all sales in the second quarter
Overall inventory is down by 7% (compared to Q2 2015), representing the LOWEST inventory levels since the market peak in 2007

HIGH END MARKET

High-end property sales ($2+ million) were down 23% from Q2 2015
However, despite declining sales, high-end properties under contract have increased by 42%
There are 68 properties for sale over $5 million, an increase of 11%
The most expensive property for sale in Teton County is a 264 acre property just south of Wilson with 7,715 sq ft main house, guest house, and expansive frontage on both the Snake River and Fish Creek, listed for $53 million (pictured below)

264 acre property on Snake River & Fish Creek – $53 million (listed by JH Sotheby’s)

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Single family (SF) home sales in the second quarter were up only slightly (2%) from last year at this time
SF home sales over $1 million are up 18%, SF home sales over $3 million are up 43%
Overall SF home inventory is down 12%, with only 20% of listings priced under $1 million
Only 13 homes are available under $750,000, down 71% from this time last year
The average asking price of new listings is up 11% to $3.65 million – the second highest average ever!

Click HERE to view the 39 single family home listings priced under $1 million

3 bed / 2 bath in Cottonwood Park – $650,000 (Listed by JH Sotheby’s)

CONDO/TOWNHOME

Overall condo sales have slowed, down 6% from this time last year
Condo sales under $500,000 fell dramatically (down 32%)
Overall available inventory is up 10%, however inventory under $300,000 is down 71%
The average listing price for condo/townhomes is up 29%
72% of available condos are priced under $1 million, with only 31% priced under $500,000

Click HERE to see the 26 condos/townhomes available under $500,000

4 bedroom townhome in East Jackson – $499,000 (listed by RE/MAX Obsidian)

VACANT LAND

Lot sales are down significantly (55%) with only 28 sales in the first 6 months of 2016
However, the average sales price continues to climb, up 10% in Q2 2016
64% of lot sales are purchased with cash (i.e. no financing)
Overall available inventory dipped 5% from Q2 2015, however the supply of lots remains high
NOTE: Supply exceeds demand in this segment, with 34 months of inventory currently on the market.
The majority of available lots (49) are in the $500,000 – $1 million price range.

WHAT TO DO NEXT?

BUYERS: Given the low levels of available inventory, especially in the entry level market, well priced and well maintained properties will continue to sell quickly. Please connect with me so that I can alert you about soon-to-be-listed properties in your price range. You can also search Jackson Hole properties on my website or sign up for automatic listing updates. As a Buyer, it’s very important to be prepared to act quickly. Get pre-qualified with a local bank (contact me for a list of local lenders) in order to be ready to make an offer on a competitive property.

SELLERS: As a Seller, the best strategy is to price your property competitively (based on the most comparable sales) and market it effectively, as well priced properties can receive multiple offers. If you are interested in a learning what your property could sell for in this market, please complete the Home Valuation Request Form for a free, in-depth, data-driven market analysis.

New Listings continue to hit Jackson Hole real estate market, especially in the higher end

July 10, 2016/in Asking Prices, Inventory Levels, Listing Prices, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Update, New Listings, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand/by Molly Stewart

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for July 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

What’s new in June 2016? (New Listing Analysis)

90 :: Total number of new listings in June
- Total New Listing Volume: $240,700,000
- Average List Price: $2,675,000
69 new residential properties (single family, condo, townhome)
- Average List Price: $2,690,000
- New listings already under contract or sold: 16
21 new building sites
- Average List Price: $2,620,000
- New listings already under contract or sold: 2

What it means: New inventory continues to hit the market, with 90 new listings coming online in June. Joined with last month, we’ve seen 200 new properties enter the Jackson Hole real estate market so far this summer. While the number of new listings in June is down slightly from May, the volume of new listings actually increased. As a result, the average sales price of June listings was close to $2.7 million. There were two very high end new listings that no doubt affected these statistics: an 11,000 sq foot home on 40 acres north of Town was listed for $28 million (pictured below) and a 264 acre property (including modern home, guest house, barn, etc.) with frontage on both Fish Creek and the Snake River was listed for $53 million! However, even without these two listings, the average sales price of June’s new inventory was over $1.8 million, continuing an increasing trend seen over the last few months (see chart below). The average listing price of new lot listings was also above $2.6 million and included two large parcels in Bar-B-Bar (located along the Snake River north of Town), listed for $12 million and $15.5 million, respectively. Several single family homes hit the market in the $600,000 – $800,000 price range. These homes in Cottonwood Park, Rafter J, the Town of Jackson, Red Top Meadows and Hoback Junction represent the least expensive single family home options in Teton County. Many buyers are moving quickly, as 20% of June’s new listings are already sold or have sales pending (by July 10th).

Notable new listings in June include:

2 bedroom / 1 bath single family home in West Jackson – $599,000
Log Cabin with large shop/garage in Hoback – $635,000
Modern 2 bdrm condo in Pearl @ Jackson in downtown – $1,150,000
Four lots bordering Elk Refuge in Gill Addition (with older home) – $6,000,000

Click HERE to view all new June residential listings.

Click HERE to view all new June land listings.

11,000 sq ft home on 40 acres – Listed by JH Sotheby’s for $28 million

As we continue through the busy summer selling season, the amount (and price) of new inventory will continue to dictate future market values. Whether you are a first time or seasoned home buyer, there are many opportunities out there, with several not listed in the MLS. If you are an active buyer, or looking to get into the Jackson Hole real estate market, please connect with me for a comprehensive analysis of the current buying opportunities in our market.

As a Seller, the best strategy is to make your property stand out against the competition by pricing it competitively (based on the most comparable sales) and marketing it effectively, as buyers are moving quickly on well-priced, high-demand properties. If you are interested in a learning what your property could sell for in this market, please complete a Home Valuation Form for a free estimate of your home’s market value.

Featured Listings

Browse Katie’s “Top Picks” for current values in the Jackson Hole real estate market. Updated with new listings weekly. Browse now.

What SOLD in March?

$156M

Total Sales Volume

100%

Sales:List Price Ratio

Market Analysis

23%

Land Sales

$3,248,487

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

71%

of property sales over $1M

17

TRANSACTIONS OVER $3M

NEW LISTINGS in March

$176,814,500

New Listing Volume

Market Analysis

$1.75M

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

$3.9M

Average List Price

13

Vacant Lot Listings

35

Listings over $1M

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Jackson Hole Real Estate Trends – Past 5 years

Market Analysis

Market Analysis

2021 Forecast

Advice for Sellers in 2021:

Advice for Buyers in 2021:

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

$2,175,597,500

LIST PRICE Volume

$3,176,055

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

Market Analysis

$2,043,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

70%

Listings over $1 million

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$1,799,973,233

Total Sales Volume

$2,799,336

Average Sales Price

Market Analysis

$1,592,167

Average Median Sales Price

18%

of Sales were Land Lots

2020: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

$2,175,597,500

LIST PRICE Volume

$3,176,055

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

Market Analysis

$2,043,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

70%

Listings over $1 million

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2020 Forecast

Market Analysis

2020 Forecast

Advice for Sellers in 2020:

Advice for Buyers in 2020:

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$890,085,959

Total Sales Volume

$1,805,448

Average Sales Price

Market Analysis

$1,155,979

Average Median Sales Price