2020: Year End Review – Five Year Trends and 2021 Forecast

January 20, 2021/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Buyers, Condos, Days on Market, Foreclosure Properties, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Investment Property, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Multi-family, New Listings, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Real Estate Sales – Past 5 years

Well, 2020 was a year for the record books as statistics from this past year dwarfed all previous years. MLS sales had not exceeded 500 per year over the last 5 years and almost reached 650 in 2020 (a 37% increase over the previous 4 year average). Sales volume experienced even bigger gains in 2020. Looking back, we saw annual sales volume increasing from $634 million to $676 million from 2016 to 2017. The market took a jump in 2018, when sales volume increased more than $250 million from the previous year – a staggering 38% increase (with only a 13% increase in sales). The market stayed steady in 2019, with a similar level of sales and slightly less sales volume (about a 5% drop), a healthy sign after a very strong 2018. Enter 2020, where sales volume skyrocketed – up to $1.8 billion – more than DOUBLE the average annual sales volume of the previous 4 years. To put it in perspective: 2020 saw as much sales volume as 2018 & 2019 COMBINED!

As to be expected, the average sales price also experienced a record breaking increase, with the trend following that of sales volume: Average sales price hovered around $1.5 million in 2016 & 2017, jumped up to $1,892,000 in 2018 and cooled slightly in 2019 to just above $1.8 million. The average sales price in 2020 was $2.8 million, a $1,000,000 increase from 2019 and a 68% increase over the previous 4 year average. Wow! These record breaking increases were a result of unprecedented demand, as many out of town buyers flocked to Jackson Hole and competed with local buyers on property purchases. What resulted were many multiple offer situations, contributing to 170 properties selling at or above their listing prices in 2020 (more than 1 in every 4 sales). Compare that to the previous 4 years, where the highest percentage was 23% in 2018 (and only 17% last year). It’s interesting to track the various price points over the past 4 years. The $1-3 million segment follows the overall market growth, mirroring increases in overall sales and volume. In contrast, the luxury segment saw oversized growth in 2020. Back in 2017, there were just 42 sales in this high end segment. In 2018, sales in this segment jumped along with the overall market, recording 76 sales. After seeing a similar level of sales in 2019, this segment exploded in 2020 with 186 sales over $3 million, more than double the number of sales in the previous two years combined. On the other end of the spectrum, sales under $500,000 dropped off considerably in 2020, representing less than 5% of all sales.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

In a year of unprecedented demand, the Jackson Hole market saw a decline in inventory levels in 2020. Looking back over the past 5 years, new listings in 2016-2018 ranged between 613-632 per year. As a result of a busy 2018 in sales, sellers responded and new listings jumped in 2019, with nearly 700 new listings hitting the market. In 2020, inventory levels actually dropped, with barely enough new listings (685) to replace the 643 sales in 2020. It’s interesting to analyze the gap between sales and new listings over the past 5 years. In 2016 & 2017, new listings outpaced sales by 170 properties each year. In 2018, inventory tightened a bit, with 138 more listings than sales. In 2019, more listings hit the market, an increase in supply which held sales (and dollar volume) steady, as new listings outpaced sales by 203 properties. Compare those trends to 2020, where the gap between listings and sales was only 42, by far the lowest supply to demand (sales) we’ve seen yet.

Despite seeing fewer listings in 2020, the listing volume increased significantly from 2019, recording 17% more in volume (with 11 fewer listings). Looking back over the last 5 years, listing volume has increased each year, growing by roughly $250 million in the past 2 years in particular. The year 2020 saw a $325 million increase from 2019, pretty amazing considering there were actually fewer new listings in 2020! After increasing 12% in 2018, and holding steady in 2019 at just under $2.5 million, the average listing price jumped significantly in 2020 – up to more than $3.2 million, a 30% increase over 2019.

By all accounts, 2020 in the Jackson Hole real estate market was one for the record books. Annual sales were up 30% and overall sales volume in 2020 was more than double that of 2019. The average sales price was $1 million higher than in 2019. Fewer listings came onto the market, but did so at higher prices as listing volume increased 17% and the average listing price nearly reached $3.2 million.

The global pandemic had buyers from all over the country, many of whom could now work remotely, escaping to less populated areas with access to the outdoors. Many had dreams to one day move to Jackson Hole, a favorite vacation spot, and the pandemic encouraged them to act. We saw buyers urgently shopping for Jackson Hole real estate at all price points, adding tremendous demand to a market with, for the most part, a permanently limited supply of properties.

Now with the vaccine rollout and a hint of normalcy on the horizon, do people still need to escape? Is it a permanent lifestyle change or just a temporary exodus? Do these buyers miss the city enough to move back? Even if they do move back, will we see that inventory come back on the market? Or, will many elect to keep their newly purchased property as a vacation home? How much inventory (supply) do we need to see a real effect on pricing? Right now, the Jackson Hole market has the lowest level of inventory in recent history. Pre-pandemic, demand for Jackson Hole properties was strong. Even if we go back to previous levels, there will still be enough demand to eat up existing low inventory levels. Regardless of the demand changes, we would need to see supply increase significantly for pricing to be affected.

Looking back over the past 30 years, Jackson Hole real estate has seen, on average, 6-8% annual appreciation, with a 5-10% correction every 5 years or so. The Jackson Hole market has been growing at a strong pace for the past 5+ years, with 2020 being an explosive year. For example a newly built home in Town sold for $675,000 in 2014, sold again for $1,050,000 in 2018 and was just listed for $2,150,000 – and is under contract! Some will argue that these levels of appreciation simply cannot continue and at some point we will see a correction. In larger markets and pockets in the nation that may be true, but will we see a correction in Jackson Hole? Again, to see any affect on pricing we need to see a sharp drop in demand or a significant increase in supply. At this point, it’s hard to imagine either of those happening. We are still seeing buyers from across the country move their money from the stock market into real estate. Jackson Hole will continue to be a draw for many who value a sense of community, outdoor recreation and mountain living.

I think 2021 will be another strong year for Jackson Hole real estate. Record low inventory levels will make it challenging for all buyers, creating competition and multiple offers. We may see fewer sales because there are simply less options on the market, but pricing and values will remain strong.

Track your property’s value in today’s market. Be familiar with comparable sales, but also focus on current inventory levels, which may have more impact on market value. Properties that are priced with those two things in mind (vs. putting an unreasonable price tag on it) are receiving the most interest and selling quickly. (Talk to Katie about an aggressive yet accurate pricing strategy.)

Strategize for mass market exposure. There are many buyers out there with limited options to buy. As a seller, you will have the most success if you can reach them all at once. Finding one buyer will not be difficult, your goal should be to bring all the interested buyers to the table at the same time in order to achieve your desired terms of sale. (Talk to Katie about her unique strategies to obtain mass market exposure.)

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers. Think about what terms are most important to you: price? leaseback? quick closing? Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: De-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return. (Have Katie join you for a tour of your home to discuss what you can do to increase your home’s value.)

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? Are you learning about properties before they hit the market? (Talk to Katie to make sure she is on the look out for soon to be listed properties for you.)

Determine what you want and be ready to act quickly. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. Get all your ducks in a row now. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation? (Talk to Katie about proven strategies to “win” in these competitive situations.)

If you need to sell your home to buy something else, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens. Explore options that would allow you to purchase before selling (i.e. bridge financing, leasebacks, etc.) (Ask Katie to help you crunch numbers and brainstorm options.)

2020: Year End Listings Review – Jackson Hole

January 19, 2021/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Buyers, Condos, Days on Market, Foreclosure Properties, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Investment Property, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Multi-family, New Listings, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

New Listings in 2020

Slightly fewer new listings came onto the market in 2020 than in 2019. For many years, the Jackson Hole real estate market has suffered from low inventory levels (and high demand) and this year was no different. Through the first two quarters, new inventory trailed 2019 by 40 listings. After demand for Jackson real estate exploded in Q3, more sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market for sale and new listings outpaced 2019 in the second half of the year. Despite seeing a total of 11 fewer new listings in all of 2020, the dollar volume of those 2020 listings was significantly higher. New listing volume outpaced 2019 in 3 of the 4 quarters, finishing the year with $2.175 billion worth of new inventory – a staggering $323 million increase in new listing volume (with 11 fewer listings!). As a result, the average listing price jumped to over $3.1 million in 2020 (from $2.66 million in 2019). The median list price also increased in 2020, up over $2 million for the first time since I began tracking stats in 2013. An interesting thing happened in August of 2020: monthly sales started outpacing monthly new listings, meaning new properties hitting the market were not keeping pace with property purchases – further diminishing already low inventory levels and putting additional upward pressure on pricing.

Not surprising, 70% of new listings in 2020 were in excess of $1 million, with this segment seeing 32 more listings than in 2019. Breaking it down further, the largest shift occurred in the luxury market ($3+ million), which saw 83 more listings in 2020. All other segments under $3 million actually saw a decrease in new listings in 2020, with the $1-3 million price point seeing the largest drop (51 fewer listings than 2019). The breakdown in property type was consistent with 2019, so the shift in listing price can’t be explained by simply “more single family home listings” – prices were up across the board, with all property types seeing an increase in average listing prices. That being said, we saw the largest spike in single family home listings come at the start of the third quarter, no doubt contributing to the record breaking sales numbers this past summer.

2020: Year End Sales Review – Jackson Hole

January 18, 2021/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Buyers, Condos, Days on Market, Foreclosure Properties, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Investment Property, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Multi-family, New Listings, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Real Estate Sales in 2020

2020 was a tale of two markets – pre-pandemic and the early stages of the shut down and the resulting Jackson Hole real estate boom that followed. The first two quarters of 2020 actually lagged the 2019 market, which was a very strong year. Sale transactions were down in Q1 and Q2, while sales volume kept pace with 2019 through the second quarter. In mid-June, the Jackson Hole real estate market started to pick up and then exploded in the summer. The second half of 2020 saw 200 more sales than in the second half of 2019, an increase of 70% over 2019. Sales volume skyrocketed, dwarfing sales volume levels from 2019, recording $898 million MORE in sales volume in the second half of the year vs. 2019, an increase of 165%! After a modest increase in Q1, the average sales price was roughly $1 million higher each quarter through the end of 2020, ending at $2.8 million for the year 2020. The median sales price was also up in 2020, increasing $437,000 to just under $1,600,000.

Similar to 2019, the majority of property sales in 2020 occurred in the $1-3 million price point. However, the largest shifts in price point occurred in the high and low ends of the market. Homes selling for above $3 million represented nearly 30% of all sales in 2020, while that same segment accounted for only 15% of all sales in 2019. On the other end of the spectrum, after representing 14% of all sales in 2019, sales under $500,000 accounted for less than 5% of sales in 2020.

The average sale to list price ratio was 97% or higher in 8 out of 12 months in 2020, as increased demand weakened buyers ability to negotiate on price. In that vein, 170 property sales in 2020 were at or above their listing prices, meaning more than 1 out of every 4 sales sold for full price (or above). Compare that to 2019, when just 17% of all sales were at or above the listing price.

Single family homes accounted for more sales in 2020, representing 52% of all transactions (vs. 46% in 2019). Fewer condo and townhome sales occurred in 2020 (30% of all sales vs. 40% in 2019), while land sales got a boost in 2020 – accounting for 18% of all sales (up from 14% in 2019).

New Listings in 2020

Slightly fewer new listings came onto the market in 2020 than in 2019. For many years, the Jackson Hole real estate market has suffered from low inventory levels (and high demand) and this year was no different. Through the first two quarters, new inventory trailed 2019 by 40 listings. After demand for Jackson real estate exploded in Q3, more sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market for sale and new listings outpaced 2019 in the second half of the year. Despite seeing a total of 11 fewer new listings in all of 2020, the dollar volume of those 2020 listings was significantly higher. New listing volume outpaced 2019 in 3 of the 4 quarters, finishing the year with $2.175 billion worth of new inventory – a staggering $323 million increase in new listing volume (with 11 fewer listings!). As a result, the average listing price jumped to over $3.1 million in 2020 (from $2.66 million in 2019). The median list price also increased in 2020, up over $2 million for the first time since I began tracking stats in 2013. An interesting thing happened in August of 2020: monthly sales started outpacing monthly new listings, meaning new properties hitting the market were not keeping pace with property purchases – further diminishing already low inventory levels and putting additional upward pressure on pricing.

Not surprising, 70% of new listings in 2020 were in excess of $1 million, with this segment seeing 32 more listings than in 2019. Breaking it down further, the largest shift occurred in the luxury market ($3+ million), which saw 83 more listings in 2020. All other segments under $3 million actually saw a decrease in new listings in 2020, with the $1-3 million price point seeing the largest drop (51 fewer listings than 2019). The breakdown in property type was consistent with 2019, so the shift in listing price can’t be explained by simply “more single family home listings” – prices were up across the board, with all property types seeing an increase in average listing prices. That being said, we saw the largest spike in single family home listings come at the start of the third quarter, no doubt contributing to the record breaking sales numbers this past summer.

2019 Jackson Hole Real Estate Summary & 2020 Forecast

January 20, 2020/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Building Site, Buyers, Condos, Condos under $500, Days on Market, East Jackson, Grand Teton National Park, High End Real Estate, Housing, Inventory Levels, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Land/Building Sites, Listing Prices, Luxury Property, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Real Estate Sales, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, Townhome, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

We all remember 2018 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, right? An explosive year where everything was up, way up! Transactions increased 13%, while overall sales volume jumped a staggering 38%, and the average sale price was up 22%. What a year! Could it continue? Surely this level of appreciation wasn’t sustainable? Many predicted a recession, or a the very least a stabilization after such a wild year. Well, the 2019 market in Jackson Hole did slow down, but just a bit. While not a significant correction like many were hoping / predicting, the numbers show that 2018 was most likely a “peak” year. With a similar level of sales in 2019, dollar volume decreased 6% and the average sale price dropped 4.5%. The median sale price increased, recording its highest mark in the last 5 years but that is more likely an indication of the “Virginian Village effect” (see sales section above) then a result of increasing sale prices. New this year, I analyzed properties that sold at or above their listing prices, which can help us understand overall demand, as these sales are usually a result of multiple and/or quick offers. In each year since 2016, more and more properties have sold at or above the asking price, peaking in 2018 at 114 property sales (nearly 1 in every 4 sales!). In 2019, with a similar level of overall sales, 87 properties sold at or above their listing price (or roughly 1 in every 6 properties). While not a drastic change, this is another indicator of demand slowing down from the highs of 2018.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

After peaking in 2015 (739 new listings), the amount of new inventory entering the market constricted in 2016, down 16% percent. New listing levels have been increasing year-over-year since 2017, recently up 10% from 2018 to 2019 (696 new listings) – marking the most significant increase in over 5 years. After seeing what the market did in 2018, sellers may have wanted to take advantage and cash out, listing their property for sale in 2019. When more inventory (supply) enters the market, this can put downward pressure on pricing, perhaps explaining the slight decline in both sales volume and average sales prices in 2019. Obviously this isn’t true for the entire market, as certain pockets (Town under $1.3 million for example) continue to see high demand (and increasing prices). However, even though there were more listings in 2019, we saw the same amount of sales as 2018 (with fewer new listings), perhaps as some potential buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for a larger market correction.

After a exceptionally strong 2018, I predicted that the unprecedented rate of market acceleration could not continue (see my 2019 forecast). After seeing things slow a bit in 2019, what will 2020 bring? Will things continue to slow or plateau like 2019 or will high demand for Jackson Hole properties once again push pricing upward?

Talks of a pending recession still abound, but will it happen in Jackson? It seems unlikely. Jackson Hole remains a highly desirable place to live for year round families and second homeowners alike. As more and more people can work remotely, many want to make living the dream in Jackson Hole a reality. That will probably never change. As people continue to move here, they will continue to compete for properties with the local buyers. Unfortunately, this can lead to the local working people getting squeezed – beaten out by cash offers and buyers willing to pay over market value to get their spot in Jackson Hole. I predict it getting continually harder and harder for local buyers to enter the market, and increasingly difficult to move up in the market (without taking on a higher mortgage in the process).

There is always uncertainty with an election year. Add to that global trade talks and impeachment hearings and many people are holding their breath and watching the market closely. That being said, many investors are cash heavy, waiting for any recession induced opportunities, suggesting that any slight down turn will be immediately buoyed by an increase in demand.

In a unique market like Jackson Hole, where the supply of land is permanently limited due to publicly held land and conservation easements, it’s hard to imagine we will see enough new supply (or a decrease in demand) to result in any significant downtown. Happy 2020!

Know how your property’s “micro-market”. Certain segments of the market are seeing different levels of demand. Be familiar with recent comps, but even more importantly, current inventory / competition in your segment.

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers in certain segments. Think about what terms are most important to you. Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return.

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? What types of properties are selling quickly?

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly as inventory in certain segments remains low. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation?

If you need to sell to buy, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens.

2019: Year End Review – Jackson Hole

January 18, 2020/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Buyers, Condos, Days on Market, Foreclosure Properties, High End Real Estate, Inventory Levels, Investment Property, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Multi-family, New Listings, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

After an explosive 2018 that saw a 13% annual increase in sales and a staggering 38% increase in dollar volume, many predicted that the market would slow in 2019, many thought the market was in need of a correction. The number of real estate sales did not slow down in 2019, recording a nearly identical number of sales as 2018. After under performing 2018 in the first two quarters, transactions increased in Q3 and Q4 of 2019, netting a total of 493 sales* (vs. 494 sales in 2018). What did change in 2019 was the overall dollar volume, dropping 6% percent from 2018, to $890,000,000* in 2019. After starting the year off strong (2019 Q1 sales volume was up 50% from 2018 Q1), the second quarter of 2019 really under preformed 2018, recording just over half of the sales volume seen in the 2nd quarter of 2018. While the second half of 2019 recorded similar numbers to the same time in 2018, the overall dollar volume of 2019 still came up $45 million short of 2018. With a similar level of sales and less dollar volume, it’s no surprise that the average sale price followed a similar trend (high in Q1, low in Q2 and pretty even in Q3 & Q4) with the end of year average dropping $85,000 (4.5%) to just over $1.8 million. In analyzing the price point breakdown in 2019 vs 2018, a few trends become clear:

The high end market saw a similar level of sales in 2019 (74 vs 76 in 2018). Digging deeper, shows that overall dollar volume of this segment was down 3.5% in 2019, accounting for $412 million in total volume.
Sales seemed to shift from the locals market ($500,000 – $1,000,000), which was down 17%, to the $1-3 million range, which was up 9% from 2018.
The most dramatic change occurred in the sub $500,000 market, where nearly 50% MORE sales occurred in 2019. The 24 additional sales in this price point can be almost entirely explained by the sales of the Virginian Village condos. Condominiumized by the developer several years ago, these 1 and 2 bedroom units located in the heart of Jackson were completely renovated with new appliances, flooring, kitchens, baths, etc. After selling several units FSBO, the remaining units were put on the market with Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates and accounted for 26 sales between Feb – Dec 2019. These condos were in high demand, selling one after the other, with 1 bedrooms selling between $302,000 – $325,000 and 2 bedrooms selling between $402,500 – $435,000.

This influx of inventory and sales in the entry level market, can help explain why, despite a decrease in average sales price, the average monthly median sales price in 2019 was actually up, increasing to $1.15 million from $1.09 million in 2018. With more sales in the bottom end of the market, the median (which measures the middle of the market sales) was pushed up in 2019 because of the additional 26 sales on the low end. In analyzing the property type breakdown, it shows that single family home sales decreased 5%, representing 46% of all sales in 2019, while townhome/condo sales increased in 2019, up 6% representing 40% of all sales. Again, most likely a result of the 26 Virginian Village condo sales in 2019. Land sales represented a similar amount of sales in 2019 (14% vs 12% in 2018).

*Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for 2019, excluding fractional sales and duplicate entries. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Buyers had more options in 2019, as 696 new residential listings entered the market, compared to 632 in 2018, an increase of 10%. New inventory levels outpaced 2018 in the first 3 quarters of 2019, with an especially strong Q3 that saw 40 more new listings than the same period in 2018. While the number of new listings increased 10%, the dollar volume of those new listings jumped up 15%, with $243 million more in dollar volume than in 2018. New listing volume outpaced 2018 in 3 of the 4 quarters, with a very strong Q2 seeing $200 million more in listing volume than in Q2 2018. So, not only was more inventory entering the market in 2019, but it did so at higher price points. As a result, the average listing price increased 4.5%, up to $2.66 million in 2019. Sixty-five percent of 2019’s new listings were in excess of $1 million, with the majority (44%) in the $1-3 million range. Fifty-seven properties entered the market priced under $500,000, with the Virginian Village condos accounting for roughly half (28) of the listings. Single family homes accounted for just over 50% of new listings in 2019.

Real Estate Sales and Dollar Volume up again in 2015

March 4, 2016/in Building Site, Condos, Inventory Levels, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Real Estate Sales, Single family homes, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

The Jackson Hole Report, a quarterly market report prepared by my colleagues David & Devon Viehman at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, provides insights into the local real estate market. Below is a quick summary of their 2015 Year End Report. Click HERE to read the full 2015 Jackson Hole Report.

OVERALL MARKET

In 2015, the real estate market in Jackson Hole (including land, condos, single family and commercial) saw 12% more sales than in 2014. Dollar Volume of those sales was up 36% from 2014. The luxury market ($3+ million) saw even bigger increases over 2014, reporting a 39% jump in sales and a 37% jump in dollar volume. This trend of increasing sales over the past few years has left the market with very little inventory – current available listings at the end of 2015 were the 3rd lowest level in 25 years (2014 saw the 2nd lowest level).

Total real estate sales: 684
Total dollar volume: $1,095,000,000
52% of all sales in 2015 occurred under $1 million

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Single family homes accounted for 36% of total sales in 2015
Dollar Volume ($501 million) was up 26%
Average Sales Price was up 23%
Hot Spot: The Town of Jackson had 67 single family home sales, selling on average for $832,615.

There were 99 homes sales under $1 million in 2015. However, currently inventory is thin, with only 24 homes available under $1 million (and only 2 under $600,000). Homes over $1 million were up too, reporting 125 sales in 2015 (up 25% from 2014).

Single family home in E Jackson sold in 2015 for more than the list price of $975,000 (listed by Re/max).

CONDO/TOWNHOMES

Condo and townhome sales were up 17% in 2015
Dollar Volume was up a staggering 79%!
Average Sales Price was up 53%
59% of all condo sales were over $500,000
Hot Spot: Teton Village sales increased 88% in 2015, with an average sales price of $2.13 million

Why the increase? Condos and townhomes were the first to recover after the recession, especially in the entry level market (under $300,000). Many entry level condos have appreciated as much as 100% in the last 5 years. As an example, in 2012 there were 50 condo sales under $300,000. Currently, there are zero!

Wind River condo in Teton Village sold in 2015 for $1.05 million (listed by Re/max).

LAND SALES

Lot sales were up 16% in 2015
Dollar Volume was up 33%
Average Sales Price was up 15%
Hot Spot: Lots sales over $1 million increased 16%, with sales volume up 33%

Land sales have been on the rise as the construction industry strengthens and people’s desire to build a home in Jackson continues. Unlike the diminishing inventory in the single family home and condo market, the existing inventory for vacant land is healthy. There are 61 lots currently for sale in Teton County priced under $1 million. Given the low inventory for built homes, demand for vacant land should continue to grow in 2016.

3 acre lot on Fall Creek Rd sold in 2015 for $820,000 (listed by Re/max).

LOOKING TO 2016: Prices should continue to rise as we enter 2016 due to the low inventory and steady demand. But how much well-priced inventory will be available for local buyers? Will there be a breaking point? Will the market stall out or plateau if/when prices get too high? The next few months may be relatively quiet, given the low inventory levels. Much of the state of the Jackson real estate market going forward will depend on the amount and price point of new Spring inventory, which usually hits the market in May. Stay tuned…..

Real estate values increase in 2015, as Sales Volume up 30% in Jackson Hole

January 15, 2016/in Average Sales Price, Entry level market, High End Real Estate, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Land/Building Sites, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Real Estate Sales, Sales Volume, Uncategorized, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Market Focus

2015 Year in Review: Market Trends and Sale Statistics for the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market

Over the course of 2015, I have tracked many different sale and market statistics which all help paint a picture of the real estate market in Jackson Hole over the past year. Below are some of the take-aways from the Jackson Hole real estate market in 2015, how they compare to 2014, and a look forward to 2016:

Quick Stats – 2015:

466 total real estate transactions in 2015
- 2014 = 447 sales
Sales volume of $743,000,000 (includes reported and unreported* sales)
- 2014 = $568,000,000
Average sales price = $1,590,000
- 2014 = $1,270,000

*Note: When a sales price is not disclosed in the MLS, an estimate is used based on the current listing price and the average monthly sale to list ratio.

Sales Transactions and Sales Volume: While the number of transactions didn’t increase much, Sales Volume in 2015 jumped up 30% from 2014!! Monthly sales volume in Teton County in 2015 matched or outpaced monthly volume in 2014 in all but one month (July 2015). Not only were the “big” months of Aug & Sept bigger in 2015, much of the rest of year, especially the Spring of 2015 saw roughly double the sales volume of 2014. These levels are impressive given that there were only 19 more sales in 2015 (v. 2014).

As mentioned in the Quick Stats above, the Average Sales Price in Teton County for 2015, including unreported sales in MLS, was just under $1.6 million. With the exception of July 2015, the monthly average sales price never dipped below $1 million last year. During the peak selling months in the summer/fall 2015, the monthly average sales price hovered around $2 million. The obvious trend? Prices went up in 2015. Compared to 2014, which had an average sales price of $1.27 million, prices in 2015, on average, went up 27%!

In analyzing the Breakdown of Sales by Price Point in 2015, and comparing it to 2014, a few trends become clear. Similar to 2014, the majority (36%) of residential sales in Teton County in 2015 were in the $500,000 – $1,000,000 range. These sales included fixer upper single family homes in the Town of Jackson, 3 bedroom townhomes in Town and south of Town, homes in Rafter J and condos in Teton Village. The $1-3 million segment was also strong, accounting for nearly 1/3 of all sales in Teton County in 2015. Compare that to 2014, when this segment made up only 23% of all sales. Only 4% of all sales in 2015 were under $300,000 and only 1 in 5 sales occurred under $500,000. This is the biggest change from 2014, when nearly 40% of all sales occurred under the half million mark, illustrating a trend of higher prices and a shrinking “entry-level” market. Finally, the percentage of high-end sales ($3 million and up) more than doubled from 2014 to 2015, as many wealthy second homeowners invested in the Jackson Hole market.

The breakdown for land sales in 2015 shows a slightly different distribution, with 50% of all lot sales happening above $1 million – compare that to 2014, when only 29% of sales occurred in this segment. In particular, there were 14 land sales over $3 million in 2015, including parcels in Ely Springs, Shooting Star and Bar B C Ranch. Conversely, only 5% of lot sales in 2015 were under $300,000, compared to nearly 20% of all sales in 2014, illustrating a shrinking entry-level market for vacant land as well. The 4 sales that occurred under $300,000 were located south of Town in the Hoback and Sqauw Creek neighborhoods.

Summary and What’s Next? There is no question, 2015 was a big year! Sales Volume increased 30% with only a 4% increase in transactions. As expected we saw prices rise with the average sales price increasing roughly $360,000 from 2014 to 2015. Nearly 1/2 of all properties sales occurred over $1 million, with significant growth especially in the higher end of the market. Consequently, the entry level segment of the market shrunk as fewer residential properties and vacant land sold under $500,000 in 2015. It’s hard to imagine this explosive growth can continue. In November and December 2015, we began to witness a slow down in sales and volume (see Jan 2016 Market Report). While some of that can be attributed to the slower time of year, many real estate professionals sense a plateauing of real estate activity in 2016. Even though Jackson Hole is somewhat insulated from global and/or national trends, the recent activity in China, the Middle East and the stock market should have some effect on sales and values in our market.

Stay tuned to The Colbert Real Estate Report for market statistics and trends in Jackson Hole Real Estate as we enter 2016.

The Jackson Hole Report: Year End Update

February 9, 2015/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Building Site, Condos, Inventory Levels, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Market Report, Market Reports, Real Estate Sales, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Extremely low inventory levels continue to contribute to fewer sales, while pushing prices up in Teton County

My colleague at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, David Viehman, has been collecting stats on the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market for the last 25 years. Every quarter he publishes The Jackson Hole Report, an in-depth look at real estate sales, market trends and an analysis of different market segments. David’s report not only includes all the MLS sales, but he is also able to track sales happening outside of MLS. Below are some interesting statistics from his Year End Report. His entire report can be found HERE. All statistics (unless otherwise noted) are through the year end 2014 and are compared to 2013.

THE OVERALL MARKET

All types of properties (single family homes, condos, land) saw fewer sales in 2014 (compared to 2013) as the total number of sales in Teton County decreased by 12%
Overall sales volume was also down across the board, dropping 8% in 2014
Overall available inventory is down 15% from last year, and is now at the second lowest level in 25 years – which obviously contributes to the low sales transactions and sales volume
The shortage in supply has pushed prices up – the average sales price jumped 18% from 2013

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Total Single Family Home sales volume is down 16% compared to 2013
The average sale price rose by 5%
Current available inventory is the lowest in 25 years
In 2014, there were 123 sales under $1 million (representing 51% of all single family home sales) however only 19 homes are currently on the market in this price point (representing only 17% of all single family home listings)
Of the 113 homes currently listed, the average listing price is $4.25 million
Least expensive single family home listing: a 2 bedroom older home in Buffalo Valley for $465,000
Most expensive single family home listing: a 7,583 sq ft private 72 acre estate on the Snake River for $24.75 million (pictured below)

CONDO/TOWNHOME

Total condo/townhome sales were down 10% compared to 2013, while sales volume fell by 9%
Average sales price was UP by 9%
Currently only 4 condos are available in Teton County for under $300,000
56% of all condos sales were under $500,000, however currently there are only 11 condos for sale in this segment
Available inventory is down 23% compared to this time in 2013, marking the 3rd lowest condo inventory in the past 25 years
Least expensive condo listing: a 558 sq ft, 1 bed/1 bath condo at Snake River Lodge & Spa in Teton Village for $270,000 (pictured below)
Most expensive condo listing: a 2,240 sq ft, 3 bed/3 bath condo for $3.1 million at the Four Seasons Resort

VACANT LAND

Total lots sales in 2014 dropped 14%
The average sales price was up 4% compared to 2013
The number of lots under contract has dropped by 40%, while the average listing price for lots under contract has jumped 180%
Available lot inventory is down 12% compared to this time in 2013
Average listing price for vacant lots in Teton County is $2.173 million
Currently there are 5 lots for sale in Teton County priced under $300,000
With home inventory at an all time low, we should see demand increase for vacant land

Best of Jackson Hole – JH Weekly’s Reader’s Poll – 2015

With the help of my friends and customers, I’ve been voted one of Jackson’s Best Realtors since 2012 and am hoping you can help me earn the GOLD medal this year!

May I ask for your vote?

Visit www.jhweekly.com and click on the icon on the right hand side. After you enter your name/email you can start voting. Be sure to vote for all your other Jackson favorites. It’s fun!
I very much appreciate your support!

2014 Year in Review: Market Trends and Sale Statistics for the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market

January 14, 2015/in Average Sales Price, Days on Market, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Land/Building Sites, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Real Estate Sales, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Over the course of 2014, I have been tracking many different sale and market statistics which all help paint a picture of the real estate market in Jackson Hole over the past year. Below are some of the take-aways from the Jackson Hole real estate market in 2014:

Quick Stats – 2014:

447 total real estate transactions in 2014
- 189 single family home sales
- 163 condos and townhomes sales
- 95 land sales
Reported sales volume of $440 million
Additional unreported sales volume of $127 million
Estimated TOTAL sales volume of $567 million
Average sales price (including unreported sales) = $1,268,000

Average Days on Market measures the amount of time an average property spends on the market from the time of listing to the closing date. There are always outliers and in my sales tracking, I try to exclude any listing that has been on the market for more than 1,000 days. Since the start of 2014, days on market have been declining, and have hovered around 200 days for the last few months. Consistently in 2014 we saw well priced properties and/or properties in low-inventory, high-demand sub markets sell very quickly, many times going under contract immediately after they were listed. That being said, many sellers also wanted to test the market and priced their properties above market value to see if they would get any bites. Sometimes this led to increased days on market. I think we will see this trend (low days on market) continue until inventory levels increase. Many times properties are not even officially hitting the market before being placed under contract, as realtors are able to find a buyer through their own contacts or through a colleague at their office. (Note: If you are a Buyer searching for a specific property, please contact me so that I may be on the lookout for future listings for you.)

As mentioned in the Quick Stats above, the Average Sales Price in Teton County for 2014, including unreported sales in MLS, is estimated to be around $1,268,000. In every month in the past year, the monthly average sales price hovered just under $1,000,000 (see chart), with the exception of September & October when the monthly average sales price was over $2 million and just under $1.4 million, respectively. These months obviously drove the annual average sales price up. In 2014, the average sales price for single family homes was just under $1.5 million, while the average sales price for condos and townhomes in Teton County was $587,000. The average sales price for land sales was just under $1.1 million.

In analyzing the Breakdown of Sales by Price Point in 2014, a few trends become clear. The majority of residential sales in Teton County last year were in the $500,000 – $1,000,000 range. These sales included single family homes in the Town of Jackson and south of Town, condos in Teton Village and higher-end/larger condos in The Aspens. Only 9% of all sales in 2014 sold for under $300,000 and were usually for smaller condos in the Town of Jackson. More than 1 out of every 4 sales in 2014 was for property valued over $1 million.

The breakdown for land sales in 2014 shows a similar distribution, with the majority of land sales occuring in the $500,000 – $1,000,000 range. Nearly 1 out of every 5 land sales in 2014 was priced under $300,000 and represented several lots in the Town of Jackson and south of Town near Hoback. There were 7 land sales above $3 million in 2014 which included lots in 3 Creek Ranch, Crescent H and Shooting Star.

Happy New Year!

Thank you to all my clients and colleagues for making 2014 a great year in real estate. I was able to help 19 different buyers and sellers purchase or sell property in Teton County this past year. I look forward to helping many more people in 2015!

Year in Review: 2013 Teton County Real Estate Sales highest of past 6 years

January 17, 2014/in Housing, Inventory Levels, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Real Estate Sales, Supply/Demand, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

As we move into 2014, it’s helpful to look back at the real estate activity in 2013 and by comparing that to past years statistics, try to determine where the market is heading (isn’t that what we all want to know?!). I should first note that the below numbers are compiled from closed real estate sales in Teton County as reported to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). They include residential sales, land sales and commercial property sales.

TETON COUNTY: In 2013 there were 557 sale transactions totaling $656 million in sales volume in Teton County. This is almost 100 more transactions and $40 million more in volume than in 2012. These strong numbers come in spite of the fact that Dec 2013 was a very quiet month, recording only 33 transactions for $32 million in sales volume. Compare that to Dec 2012, which ended with a bang as 55 properties exchanged hands for a staggering $124 million. October 2013 proved to be the busiest month as 58 sales totaled almost $130 million. Looking at sales volume by month, for each year in the chart below, it’s clear that 2013 (orange colored line) had the 4th highest sales volume since 2002. For the early part of the year, volume was right in line with volumes seen in 2004 (yellow). Sales volume for 2013 was still behind the peak years of 2005-2007 (top three lines), but were well above the bottom year of 2009 (salmon).

TOWN OF JACKSON: Real Estate Sales in the Town of Jackson saw a significant bump in both transactions (213) and sales volume ($122 million) in 2013. This past year marked the highest sales volume levels in Town since 2008, when $128 million in sales occurred but with roughly half of the transactions (122). This comparison illustrates that the high sales volume in 2013 was achieved not through million dollar home sales, but through many lower end condo, townhome and entry level single family home sales. Interestingly, Town chalked up more than 4x the number of sales in Teton Village (48) and nearly 65% more in sales volume ($74 million).

REAL ESTATE FORECAST FOR 2014: As we enter 2014, I believe the main concern for the real estate market with be the available inventory (or lack of it!). Will there be anything to sell in 2014? For anyone that is currently shopping the market, it’s obvious that the inventory levels are very thin. For example, there is currently only one existing single family home for sale in Rafter J, NO single family homes under $500,000 in Town and NO homes in Melody Ranch under $1 million. Due to these low inventory levels, we may start to see Sellers taking a bolder position on pricing, knowing that they are the only option for buyers looking in a particular market/location. Will buyers be willing to over pay for a property they like, especially if it’s the only one they can find? While there may be a few of those buyers here and there, I think most buyers will not chase the prices up remembering the lessons learned from the last bubble burst (in 2008-2009), where the majority of properties in Teton County lost about 30-35% in value. If the later occurs, we may see sales activity (and values) plateau until more inventory (supply) enters the market.

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Jackson Hole Real Estate Trends – Past 5 years

Market Analysis

Market Analysis

2021 Forecast

Advice for Sellers in 2021:

Advice for Buyers in 2021:

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

$2,175,597,500

LIST PRICE Volume

$3,176,055

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

Market Analysis

$2,043,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

70%

Listings over $1 million

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$1,799,973,233

Total Sales Volume

$2,799,336

Average Sales Price

Market Analysis

$1,592,167

Average Median Sales Price

18%

of Sales were Land Lots

2020: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

$2,175,597,500

LIST PRICE Volume

$3,176,055

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

Market Analysis

$2,043,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

70%

Listings over $1 million

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2020 Forecast

Market Analysis

2020 Forecast

Advice for Sellers in 2020:

Advice for Buyers in 2020:

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$890,085,959

Total Sales Volume

$1,805,448

Average Sales Price

Market Analysis

$1,155,979

Average Median Sales Price

14%

of Sales were Land Lots

2019: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

$1,852,044,899

LIST PRICE Volume

$2,660,984

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

Market Analysis

$1,412,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

65%

Listings over $1 million

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Market Focus

2015 Year in Review: Market Trends and Sale Statistics for the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market

Stay tuned to The Colbert Real Estate Report for market statistics and trends in Jackson Hole Real Estate as we enter 2016.

Extremely low inventory levels continue to contribute to fewer sales, while pushing prices up in Teton County

Best of Jackson Hole – JH Weekly’s Reader’s Poll – 2015

Happy New Year!

Are you interested in watching inventory in a particular segment of the market? Sign up for auto emails to stay up to date on new listing and closed sales (with sales prices) in your desired area/price range.

Katie Brady