2019 Jackson Hole Real Estate Summary & 2020 Forecast

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2020 Forecast

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

We all remember 2018 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, right? An explosive year where everything was up, way up! Transactions increased 13%, while overall sales volume jumped a staggering 38%, and the average sale price was up 22%. What a year! Could it continue? Surely this level of appreciation wasn’t sustainable? Many predicted a recession, or a the very least a stabilization after such a wild year. Well, the 2019 market in Jackson Hole did slow down, but just a bit. While not a significant correction like many were hoping / predicting, the numbers show that 2018 was most likely a “peak” year. With a similar level of sales in 2019, dollar volume decreased 6% and the average sale price dropped 4.5%. The median sale price increased, recording its highest mark in the last 5 years but that is more likely an indication of the “Virginian Village effect” (see sales section above) then a result of increasing sale prices. New this year, I analyzed properties that sold at or above their listing prices, which can help us understand overall demand, as these sales are usually a result of multiple and/or quick offers. In each year since 2016, more and more properties have sold at or above the asking price, peaking in 2018 at 114 property sales (nearly 1 in every 4 sales!). In 2019, with a similar level of overall sales, 87 properties sold at or above their listing price (or roughly 1 in every 6 properties). While not a drastic change, this is another indicator of demand slowing down from the highs of 2018.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

After peaking in 2015 (739 new listings), the amount of new inventory entering the market constricted in 2016, down 16% percent. New listing levels have been increasing year-over-year since 2017, recently up 10% from 2018 to 2019 (696 new listings) – marking the most significant increase in over 5 years. After seeing what the market did in 2018, sellers may have wanted to take advantage and cash out, listing their property for sale in 2019. When more inventory (supply) enters the market, this can put downward pressure on pricing, perhaps explaining the slight decline in both sales volume and average sales prices in 2019. Obviously this isn’t true for the entire market, as certain pockets (Town under $1.3 million for example) continue to see high demand (and increasing prices). However, even though there were more listings in 2019, we saw the same amount of sales as 2018 (with fewer new listings), perhaps as some potential buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for a larger market correction.

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2020 Forecast

After a exceptionally strong 2018, I predicted that the unprecedented rate of market acceleration could not continue (see my 2019 forecast). After seeing things slow a bit in 2019, what will 2020 bring? Will things continue to slow or plateau like 2019 or will high demand for Jackson Hole properties once again push pricing upward?

Talks of a pending recession still abound, but will it happen in Jackson? It seems unlikely. Jackson Hole remains a highly desirable place to live for year round families and second homeowners alike. As more and more people can work remotely, many want to make living the dream in Jackson Hole a reality. That will probably never change. As people continue to move here, they will continue to compete for properties with the local buyers. Unfortunately, this can lead to the local working people getting squeezed – beaten out by cash offers and buyers willing to pay over market value to get their spot in Jackson Hole. I predict it getting continually harder and harder for local buyers to enter the market, and increasingly difficult to move up in the market (without taking on a higher mortgage in the process).

There is always uncertainty with an election year. Add to that global trade talks and impeachment hearings and many people are holding their breath and watching the market closely. That being said, many investors are cash heavy, waiting for any recession induced opportunities, suggesting that any slight down turn will be immediately buoyed by an increase in demand.

In a unique market like Jackson Hole, where the supply of land is permanently limited due to publicly held land and  conservation easements, it’s hard to imagine we will see enough new supply (or a decrease in demand) to result in any significant downtown. Happy 2020!


Advice for Sellers in 2020:

Know how your property’s “micro-market”. Certain segments of the market are seeing different levels of demand. Be familiar with recent comps, but even more importantly, current inventory / competition in your segment.

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers in certain segments. Think about what terms are most important to you. Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return.

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Advice for Buyers in 2020:

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? What types of properties are selling quickly?

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly as inventory in certain segments remains low. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation?

If you need to sell to buy, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens.

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Jackson Real Estate Market Analysis: Condos in The Aspens

Condos in The Aspens have been a popular real estate purchase for many years for many different types of buyers. Second homeowners enjoy the ease of access to Jackson Hole Mountain Resort and Grand Teton National Park. Locals have been attracted to the convenient location of The Aspens with its proximity to restaurants, the bus line, a coffee shop and a grocery store. Investors continue to be drawn by the lucrative short term rental market. Whatever the reason, people have been buying Aspens condos! Since Jan 2013, there have been 24 condo sales in The Aspens. Twenty of those sales occurred in 2013 (which equates to about 2 sales a month).  In 2013, the average sales price for an Aspens condo was $408,650 or $356/sq ft. One bedroom units sold on average for $295,000. Two bedrooms went for an average of $427,000 and 3 bedroom units commanded an average price of $592,000. The highest condo sale in The Aspens in 2013 was a top floor 3 bedroom Wheatgrass condo, which sold for $625,000 in Oct 2013. In 2014, we’ve already seen 4 sales in The Aspens (again about 2 per month) including a Windflower 3 bedroom which sold for $630,000 in Jan 2014 (pictured below) and most recently a 2 bedroom end unit condo in the Hawthorne building which sold for $289,000 last week.


Where has all the inventory gone?

If you read my Market Reports, you are aware that inventory is currently thin in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market. The Aspens sub-market is no exception. Right now, there are 4 condos for sale in The Aspens including a one bedroom + loft in the Sagebrush building, a 3 bedroom Woodlands condo with over 1,800 sq feet, a remodeled 3 bedroom unit with a detached garage, and a 3 bedroom Cove unit with mountain views. Click HERE to view all 4 available listings. Based on past absorption rates (2 sales per month), we have about a 2 month supply of inventory – not much!

There are currently 2 condo sales pending in The Aspens. The last new listing to hit the market  was a nicely remodeled one bedroom unit in the Tamarack building (pictured below). It was on the market for less than 10 days before receiving multiple offers and going under contract close to list price.


Spring time in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market usually means an influx of new listings as sellers seek to take advantage of the warmer weather and green landscapes. Already we are starting to see some new listing activity. In the past 2 weeks, 14 new listings have hit the market in Teton County. It will be interesting to see what (and how many) new listings pop up in The Aspens this Spring.


If you currently own a condo in The Aspens, I’d be happy to chat with you about the current real estate market. It may be a great time to sell! Please contact me for more info or to receive a free market analysis on your property.

New Listing: Over 4 acres in Alta, WY with direct Teton views

This beautiful 4.12 acre lot is located on the corner of Ski Hill Rd and Targhee Towne Rd in Alta, WY. This flat building site has direct Teton mountain views from several potential building areas on the property.


Beautiful & Direct Teton Views

The property is not within a subdivision and does not have any Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs), meaning the are no development rules other than as outlined in the Teton County zoning code (this property is zoned single family). This is a valuable attribute as many other lots for sale in the area are within a subdivision with CC&Rs rules dictating what an owner can and can’t build.


4.12 acres with no CC&Rs

Another great benefit of this property is that the owner can live on the ‘quiet side’ of the Tetons within close proximity to Grand Targhee Resort (skiing, hiking, biking, outdoor music, restaurants, etc.), downtown Driggs, Idaho, and endless recreational opportunities in Grand Teton National Park and Caribou-Targhee National Forest, YET still enjoy the benefits of being a Wyoming resident. Wyoming is consistently ranked one of the nation’s most tax-friendly states with no state income tax, no estate tax, no inheritance tax, etc.  (Please contact me for more information on Wyoming Tax Benefits.)

Asking Price: $308,000 – Click HERE to view the full listing.


Views of the Big Hole Mountains to the West


Listed by Katie Colbert, Associate Broker at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate

Jackson Hole Compass provides in-depth look at Jackson Community

JH Compass 2013 Cover

The 2013 edition of the Jackson Hole Compass publication was recently released in Jackson Hole, WY. This magazine, described as “a comprehensive overview of and reference to our community” takes an in-depth look at Jackson’s economy, demographics, politics, tourism, philanthropy, trends, recreation and most important to this blog, Housing. Below are some interesting statistics (based on the 2010 census) on Jackson Hole’s housing market.

  • 70% of Teton County’s 12,813 homes are occupied by year-round residents (a very high proportion for a resort town)
  • In the past 10 years, 40% of the new homes were constructed in the Town of Jackson.
  • In the past 10 years, Teton Village saw the highest growth in new homes, thanks to the Shooting Star development.
  • The Moose-Wilson Village Rd (Hwy 390) area houses the County’s largest share of second homes and short-term rental property.

Even though there hasn’t been much new home construction in the past few years, the real estate market has picked up sharply since the low point of 2009. Real estate sales have increased every year since, with 2013 on track to outpace them all as low inventory levels are driving higher sales prices.

Here are some other quick interesting facts about Teton County, Wyoming from The Compass:

  •  Since 1990 Teton County has ranked among the top five counties in the nation in per-capita income.
  • Teton County has roughly 1.25 jobs for every permanent resident (with much help from the tourism industry)
  • Yellowstone National Park sees nearly 3.5 million visitors per year; Grand Teton National Parks sees around 2.6 million per year.
  • Teton County’s median age is 37, slightly younger than the nation as a whole. The largest age group is 25-29.
  • There are over 200 non-profits in Teton County.

Read the entire 2013 digital edition of The Compass HERE.

What strikes you as the most interesting trend in Jackson Hole?


10 acres on N Cache in down town Jackson available for sale

Ten acres on N Cache St in downtown Jackson Hole, Wyoming, officially hit the market this past weekend Advertised for $11.55 million, this large parcel presents a unique development opportunity just 5 minutes south of Grand Teton National Park. Currently owned by the National Forest Service, the property is 10 acres and borders the National Elk Refuge. Since the property is publically owned land, any new buyer would need to work with the Town of Jackson on re-zoning the property for their use. (The property will become Rural zoning upon coneyance.) Another challenge is the limited access to the parcel. Click the following links to view the AERIAL MAP and the FULL LISTING.

Grand Teton Estate goes to Real Estate Auction

Just announced today….

 GrandTetonEstate2         BackPatio

The Grand Teton Estate, a 23,000 square foot estate will be auctioned off to the highest bidder in mid July in Jackson Hole, WY. The home sits on 10.63 private acres at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort. The property was originally listed for $32,500,000 and was recognized as one of the Top Three Most Spectacular Ski Homes in America by CNBC. Designed by renowned architect Jonathan Foote, the property is designed for both family intimacy and grand entertaining. The home boasts 7 bedrooms, 7 baths, a guest quarters, a 12 seat private theater, two offices, a 4,000 bottle wine cellar, and a 1,200 square foot gym. The grounds of this heavily treed lot include extensive paver walkways, lush gardens, streams and ponds stocked with fish. And to top it all off, the property is located minutes away from Grand Teton National Park and the Jackson Hole Aerial Tram.

This estate will sell without reserve (meaning no minimum bid) on July 12, 2013.

Click here to view the full Auction Catalog.