Summary of Real Estate Sales Statistics for Feb 2014 in Jackson Hole

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Monthly Market Update for March 2014

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – February 2014:

  • 27 :: Total residential sale transactions (up slightly from last month’s 24)
  • $20,000,000 :: Total residential sales volume reported to MLS (similar to last month)
  • $947,000::  Average sales price of reported sales (similar to last month)
  • 93% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (down from last month’s 95%)
  • 457 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (down from last month’s high of 550 days)

What it means: The second month of 2014 was very similar to the first with only a slight increase in both transactions (27) and reported sales volume ($20 million). Every month I also like to note the estimated volume of undisclosed sales. Many times buyers and/or sellers choose not to report the sales price to the Multiple List Service (the source of data for my reports). In February, there was an estimated $12.5 million in unreported sales volume. When sales are not reported I multiply the last listing price by the average sale price to list price ratio for that month to come up with a reasonable estimate of sales prices. In the month of February, this ratio dipped down to 93%, meaning on average properties were selling for a 7% discount from the last listing price. Days on market dropped from last month’s high of 550; however 457 is still higher than average (see chart below). This can be explained from several properties selling after many years on the market as we continue to see old inventory being absorbed due to an overall lack of current/new inventory.

Transactions.March2014

SalesVolume.March2014

ADOM.March2014

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“What” sold in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market in January 2014?

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Monthly Market Update for January 2014

Jackson Hole, WY

What Sold in January 2014? 

  • 38% :: Percentage of single family home sales (down from last month’s 46%)
  • 29% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (down again from 36% last month)
  • 33% :: Percentage of Land Sales (more than double the typical month)
  • 0% :: Percentage of distressed property sales (NO bank sales and NO short sales in January)
  • 29% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (similar last month’s 27%)
  • 71% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (similar to 73% in Dec)
  • 38% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (down from 42% in Dec)

What it means: When analyzing “what” sold in Teton County in Jan 2014, the most unique statistic was the high percentage of land sales. There were 8 lot sales in January which represented 1/3 of all transactions. The amount of land sales isn’t that uncommon (in the past 12 months there have been 6 months with at least 8 land sales), however what is unique about this month is that while overall sales dropped (see Summary Blog) land sales remained steady (between 6 and 10 sales per month). Overall, land tends to sell more in the spring/summer months, but there have been 17 lots sales in Teton County since the snow started flying. Notable land sales in January included a Granite Ridge homesite (listed at $2.95 million) and a lot at Shooting Star (listed for $3.3 million) in Teton Village, 2 lots in the new King Eider development in Rafter J and a lot out in Kelly (listed for $349,000).

LandSales.Feb2014

The month of January did not include a short sale or a bank sale after 2-5 such sales every month since October. Currently there are only 2 distressed properties for sale under $1 million – a fixer upper 3 bedroom condo in E Jackson for $352,000 and a 2 bedroom condo in W Jackson for $249,900. Note there are two higher end short sales also on the market – Game Creek Ranch ($1.495m) and an interesting ‘castle’ like property down Fish Creek Rd, listed for $1,500,000, which is pictured below. Click HERE to view all 4 distressed properties.

CastleProperty

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Summary of Real Estate Sales Statistics for Jan 2014 in Jackson Hole

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Monthly Market Update for February 2014

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – January 2014:

  • 24 :: Total residential sale transactions (down again from last month’s 33)
  • $18,000,000 :: Total residential sales volume reported to MLS (also down significantly from past months)
  • $930,000::  Average sales price of reported sales (similar to last month)
  • 95% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (up slightly from last month’s 94%)
  • 550 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (up significantly from the last few months)

What it means: The New Year was off to a slow start, with only 24 residential sale transactions amounting to $18 million of reported sales volume in the month of January. Even if we include the 4 unreported sales, which could add roughly another $6.5 million to the sales volume totals, that number is still low compared to recent months (see chart below). Remember that December was also an unusually slow month with only 33 transactions for $28 million in sales volume. At first glance, these numbers may suggest that the market is slowing down or plateauing. I don’t believe that is the case as there are 52 properties in Teton County currently under contract for sale that should be closing in the next few months. A more plausible explanation for the past few slow months may be our current drought of inventory. For example, there is only ONE existing house for sale in Rafter J, only TWO 1-bdrm condos for sale in The Aspens and currently NO single family homes for sale in the Town of Jackson priced under $500,000.  Low inventory levels (a.k.a. supply) inevitably put upward pressure on prices as we see demand remain strong in Teton County. The result? Quick sales on well priced properties, especially homes located in these low supply sub-markets – many times with multiple offers on the property! With low inventory levels, we also see an absorption of the existing older inventory, some of which has been on the market a very long time. This month there were several sales of property that first hit the market 2, 3, and over 4 years ago!

Transactions.Feb2014

SalesVolume.Feb2014


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Year in Review: 2013 Teton County Real Estate Sales highest of past 6 years

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As we move into 2014, it’s helpful to look back at the real estate activity in 2013 and by comparing that to past years statistics, try to determine where the market is heading (isn’t that what we all want to know?!). I should first note that the below numbers are compiled from closed real estate sales in Teton County as reported to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). They include residential sales, land sales and commercial property sales.

TETON COUNTY: In 2013 there were 557 sale transactions totaling $656 million in sales volume in Teton County. This is almost 100 more transactions and $40 million more in volume than in 2012. These strong numbers come in spite of the fact that Dec 2013 was a very quiet month, recording only 33 transactions for $32 million in sales volume. Compare that to Dec 2012, which ended with a bang as 55 properties exchanged hands for a staggering $124 million. October 2013 proved to be the busiest month as 58 sales totaled almost $130 million. Looking at sales volume by month, for each year in the chart below, it’s clear that 2013 (orange colored line) had the 4th highest sales volume since 2002. For the early part of the year, volume was right in line with volumes seen in 2004 (yellow). Sales volume for 2013 was still behind the peak years of 2005-2007 (top three lines), but were well above the bottom year of 2009 (salmon).

TCCompare

TOWN OF JACKSON: Real Estate Sales in the Town of Jackson saw a significant bump in both transactions (213) and sales volume ($122 million) in 2013. This past year marked the highest sales volume levels in Town since 2008, when $128 million in sales occurred but with roughly half of the transactions (122). This comparison illustrates that the high sales volume in 2013 was achieved not through million dollar home sales, but through many lower end condo, townhome and entry level single family home sales. Interestingly, Town chalked up more than 4x the number of sales in Teton Village (48) and nearly 65% more in sales volume ($74 million).

Town

 REAL ESTATE FORECAST FOR 2014: As we enter 2014, I believe the main concern for the real estate market with be the available inventory (or lack of it!). Will there be anything to sell in 2014? For anyone that is currently shopping the market, it’s obvious that the inventory levels are very thin. For example, there is currently only one existing single family home for sale in Rafter J, NO single family homes under $500,000 in Town and NO homes in Melody Ranch under $1 million. Due to these low inventory levels, we may start to see Sellers taking a bolder position on pricing, knowing that they are the only option for buyers looking in a particular market/location. Will buyers be willing to over pay for a property they like, especially if it’s the only one they can find? While there may be a few of those buyers here and there, I think most buyers will not chase the prices up remembering the lessons learned from the last bubble burst (in 2008-2009), where the majority of properties in Teton County lost about 30-35% in value. If the later occurs, we may see sales activity (and values) plateau until more inventory (supply) enters the market.

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Year in Review: Market Trends and Sale Statistics for the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market in 2013

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Over the course of 2013 I have been tracking many different sale and market statistics which all help paint a picture of the real estate market in Jackson Hole over the past year. Below are some of the major take-aways from the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market in 2013:

Distressed Property Sales:  Teton County experienced the highest levels of distressed property sales (bank sales and short sales) in the spring and early summer of 2013. In April, there were 8 distressed sales, which represented 15% of all property sales that month. May and June also saw a significant amount of bank and short sales, however by the end of the summer, these types of properties seemed to disappear from the market all together as September did not see a single distressed sale. Since then, each month has had their own share of sales, suggesting that while the majority of this shadow inventory has been absorbed, there still remains a trickle of  bank owned property coming onto the market.  Click HERE to see Distressed Properties currently for sale in Teton County.

Distressed.2013

Investment Property Sales: Overall, the sale of investment property in Teton County increased throughout 2013. Investment property is defined as property that can legally be short term rented and is concentrated in areas such as The Aspens, Teton Village and near Snow King Resort in the Town of Jackson. Interestingly this type of property experienced more sales near the beginning of both the summer (May) and winter (Nov) tourist seasons suggesting that investors were planning to benefit from Jackson’s two busiest seasons. Recent improvements made to both Teton Village and Jackson Hole Mountain Resort and Snow King Resort may also help explain the increased interest and real estate activity for these property types. Click HERE to see short term rental/investment property currently for sale in Teton County.

InvestmentSales2013

Average Days on Market: The average days a property sits on the market before selling can tell us many things about the speed of absorption, the level and quality of inventory and the motivation of both buyers and sellers. When inventory levels are low (i.e. not many properties on the market) we tend to see sales of property that has been on the market for quite some time as buyer’s options decrease. On the other hand, when inventory is low well priced properties can be snatched up quickly (and not be on the market for very long at all). From the chart below, we can understand that during months when sold properties spent a longer time on market before selling, these properties were selling at more of a discount (or a lower Sales Price to List Price ratio). Conversely, when the monthly sales had a lower average of days on market before selling, buyers were receiving LESS of a discount (or purchasing at a HIGHER Sale/List Price ratio).

DOMvList.2013

Inventory by Price Point: Earlier this year I analyzed how the available inventory levels (and pending sales) compared to actual closed sales, based on various price points. When we look back on 2013 as a whole, a few trends emerge. There were 440 closed sales in Teton County in 2013 (excluding land sales and fractional sales). Currently there are only 230 properties available for sale, or about a 6 month inventory. Property sales in 2013 were spread somewhat evenly across various price points (Under $500,000 / Between $500,000 – $1 million / Over $1 million – See Chart below.) This is also in contrast to available inventory, where the majority of properties (59%) are priced over $1 million despite this price point accounting for only 30% of 2013′s sales. Conversely, properties selling for under $500,000 made up 36% of all property sales in 2013, however only 12% of the current available inventory is priced under $500,000 (29 properties to be exact).

Inventory.2013

 

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“What” sold in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market in December 2013?

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Monthly Market Update for January 2014

Jackson Hole, WY

What Sold in December 2013? 

  • 46% :: Percentage of single family home sales (up from last month’s 41%)
  • 36% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (vs. 43% last month)
  • 15% :: Percentage of Land Sales (similar to last month)
  • 9% :: Percentage of distressed property sales (3 bank sales and 0 short sales)
  • 27% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (down again from last month’s 37%)
  • 73% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (up from 63% in Nov)
  • 42% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (up from 37% in Nov)

What it means: Along with decreased sales transactions and sales volume, the month of December also experienced more sales in the lower end of the market. Sales of property both under $1 million and under $500,000 represented a much higher percentage of total sales this past month, which helps explain the lower average sales price (See “Summary Section”). The share of sales under $500,000 in particular, have increased over the past few months and in December reached a level not seen since the Summer of 2013 (See Chart below). Conversely, sales of property over $1 million represented only 1/4 of all sales in December, down from a high of almost 45% in October. In the month December, there were 3 bank sales including a 3,600 square foot contemporary house in John Dodge, which sold for just under $5 million (pictured below).

High-LowSales.2013

Rockcress

Bank owned contemporary home in John Dodge – Sold for $4.9 million

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Summary of Real Estate Sales Statistics for Dec 2013 in Jackson Hole

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Monthly Market Update for December 2013

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – December 2013:

  • 33 :: Total residential sale transactions (down again from last month’s 46)
  • $28,000,000 :: Total residential sales volume reported to MLS (also down significantly from past months)
  • $900,000::  Average sales price of reported sales (down from last month’s $1.387m)
  • 94% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (up slightly from last month’s 93%)
  • 185 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (down significantly from the last few months)

What it means: Usually, December is a very active month in the real estate market as many buyers and sellers try to close on properties before the end of the year. This was certainly NOT the case in December 2013, as we saw only 33 completed transactions, the least amount of sales since March 2013. Similarly, total sales volume was also lower than expected as only $28 million of property exchanged hands in December 2013. (Note: There were 2 undisclosed sale prices in Dec which could add another $4 million to total volume.) Compare that to $58 million in November and a high of nearly $80 million in August 2013. December’s average sales price ($900,000) dipped below the typical average of $1 million as many lower end condos and building sites sold (See “What Sold” section). In December, the sales price to list price ratio increased slightly and the average days on market dropped significantly (down to 185 from 370 in Nov) suggesting that many of the properties that sold in December were priced well and sold quickly. In fact, 67% of properties that sold in December were on the market less than 6 months before selling and 9 properties sold in under 90 days.

2013.Transactions

2013.SalesVolume

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Market Focus: Sales of Investment / Vacation Property increase as Winter Ski Season approaches

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The month of November experienced a higher than usual amount of sales of investment property, or properties that allow short term rentals. Most of these sales were concentrated in areas associated with vacation rentals, such as The Aspens, Teton Village and near Snow King Resort. On average, roughly 6 of these types of investment properties sell each month. Last month, 12 investment condos sold in Teton County, the highest monthly sales this year (see chart below). The approaching winter ski season (and the lucrative rental income associated with it) may explain the spike in sales this past month. The month of May also experienced higher than usual sales of investment property, most likely for similar reasons as owners hoped to cash in on the summer tourist season.

InvestmentProperty

Interestingly, of the dozen sales of short term rental property this past month, 6 of those sales occurred at or around Snow King Resort. Snow King Resort was recently purchased by JMI Realty — a subsidiary of an investment company owned by the John Moores family, of San Diego. The new owners are in the midst of a $20 million renovation of the resort which includes updates to the hotel and conference center, a new restaurant (Hayden’s Post), and upgrades to the exterior of the property. Based on the high amount of sales this past month, it appears many investors are taking note of the improvements and are expecting increased property values and rental income as a result.

SnowKingRenovations

Renovated Snow King Hotel Lobby

CURRENT INVENTORY AT SNOW KING: Currently there are 7 condos/townhomes available for sale near Snow King Resort. Six of them are located in the Love Ridge / Grand View development located just east of the Resort (pictured below). These units were built in 2003-2004, each include 3 bedrooms and range in size from 1,800 – 1,900 square feet. Owners of these condos also enjoy all the amenities of Snow King Resort. There is an older Pitchfork unit (built in 1991) also available for sale with 3 bedrooms and a detached garage. Click HERE to view all available Snow King listings.

GrandView

Grand View / Love Ridge Condo Development

 

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“What” sold in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market in November 2013?

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Monthly Market Update for December 2013

Jackson Hole, WY

What Sold in November 2013? 

  • 41% :: Percentage of single family home sales (down from last month’s high of 49%)
  • 43% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (vs. 37% last month)
  • 13% :: Percentage of Land Sales (similar to last month)
  • 4.3% :: Percentage of distressed property sales (2 bank sales and 0 short sales)
  • 37% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (down from last month’s high of 43%)
  • 63% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (up from 57% in Oct)
  • 37% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (up 10% from Oct)

What it means: Last month, the big story was the large amount of high end home and property sales in the Teton County area, where almost 1/2 of all sales were over $1,000,000. This month, the breakdown has shifted to more typical levels (63% under $1m / 37% over $1m).  Likewise, the breakdown by property type returns to more typical levels as well with 43% of all sales in the townhome / condo market. That being said, there were still several high end properties that sold in November including one of my favorites in Teton Pines – a 7,300 sq ft estate located on the 18th fairway – which sold for over $7 million (pictured below). Interestingly, the month of November saw 13 sales of condos that allow short term rentals, perhaps as many new property owners hope to capture rental income from the upcoming ski season (see Market Focus).

TetonPines18th

Beautiful Estate at Teton Pines

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Summary of Real Estate Sales Statistics for Nov 2013 in Jackson Hole

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Monthly Market Update for December 2013

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – November 2013:

  • 46 :: Total residential sale transactions (down from last month’s 57)
  • $61,000,000 :: Total residential sales volume reported to MLS (down slightly)
  • $1,387,000::  Average sales price of reported sales (similar to last month)
  • 93% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (down from last month’s 96%)
  • 370 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (still higher than usual)

What it means: November sales statistics reflected a slight dip after October’s high numbers in both transactions (46 v. 57) and reported sales volume ($61m v.$68m). This month there were 4 unreported sales which could add another $3m-$3.3m in additional sales volume. Remember, last month there were 7 unreported sales which could have totaled an additional $80-$86 million in additional sales volume! November’s average sales price was similar to October’s (reported) average which is still slightly higher than the typical average of $1 million. On average, properties were selling for 7% less than the current listing price in November, which is the greatest discount we’ve seen since March 2013.

Transactions.png

SalesVolume

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