Low inventory levels push prices up in Teton County real estate market

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The Jackson Hole Report Quarterly Update

Extremely low inventory levels are driving the number of sales down, but pushing prices up in Teton County, especially in the lower end of the market (under $1 million).  

marketfocus

My colleague at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, David Viehman, has been collecting stats on the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market for the last 25 years. Every quarter he publishes The Jackson Hole Report, an in-depth look at real estate sales, market trends and an analysis of different market segments. Below are some interesting statistics from his 3rd Quarter Report. His entire report can be found HERE. All statistics (unless otherwise noted) are through the 3rd quarter 2014 and are compared to the first 3 quarters of 2013.

THE OVERALL MARKET

  • The total number of sales decreased by 11%, while sales under $1 million dropped 14%
  • The average sales price increased by 7% (Note: Exactly 1/2 of all transactions through Sept 2014 were conducted in CASH)
  • Available inventory (active listings) decreased by 15%, while available inventory under $1 million dropped 24%
  • The median listing price rose 39%, as a result of low inventory levels

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

  • Total Single Family Home sales are down 24% (when compared to this time last year)
  • The average sale price is up 6%
  • Available inventory has dropped 16% and is down 29% in the under $1 million segment
  • 75 sales have occurred in the $500,000-$1,000,000 range (Hot Spot)
  • As of Oct 1, there were 37 homes on the market, with only 1 priced under $500,000 (located in Moran)

CONDO/TOWNHOME

  • Total condo/townhome sales are similar to this time last year
  • The average sales price is up 8%
  • Available inventory has fallen 32%
  • 88 sales have occurred in the sub $500,000 market, representing 54% of all condo/townhome sales (Hot Spot)
  • 24 sales occurred in the sub $300,000 market, however only 3 condos are currently listed in this price range

VACANT LAND

  • Total sales are down 11% compared to this time last year
  • The median sales price is up 11%
  • 36 land sales were under $500,000, representing 42% of all sales
  • However, pending land sales under $500,000 represent only 13% of all pending sales, compared to 50% in 2013
  • Available inventory for land is down 8%

Buyers Flock to East Jackson

The Jackson Hole Report’s 3rd Quarter Report also focuses on the recent surge of real estate activity seen in East Jackson. Since 2012, East Jackson has seen the largest concentration of new homes in Teton County with 44 completed and 10 currently under construction. However, of the 44 new homes, only 9 have been available on the open market. The majority (24) were custom built for home owners, while 11 were purchased directly from the developer. Of the 9 homes publicly listed (including the newly constructed home in the Gill Addition below), the average sales price was $1,247,000, or an average price per square foot of $400. These homes sold quickly, spending an average of only 47 days on the market before closing.

NewHome

 

Market Focus: New Fall Inventory in Jackson Hole Real Estate Market

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New Fall Inventory

marketfocus

What types of properties are hitting the market this Fall? How are they priced? How have new listings affected inventory levels? 

In last month’s Market Focus: Summer in Review, we analyzed the busy summer selling season (considered June/July/Aug) where we saw 124 residential sales transactions representing over $100 million in sales volume. In this month’s Market Focus, I decided to take a look at new listing activity since the end of the busy summer season.

Between September 1, 2014 and October 15, 2014  there have been 33 new residential listings in Teton County totaling $52 million in listing volume (excluding fractionals and lots (see below)). That equates to one new listing every 1.36 days. The average listing price of these new listings is $1,538,000. Compare that to the typical average of just under $1,000,000 for SOLD properties.  As of Oct 15th, 14 of these new listings (or 42%) are already off the market; as 12 have been put under contract and 2 have already sold.

Click HERE to view the new residential listings

Between September 1, 2014 and October 15, 2014  there have been 14 new building lot listings in Teton County totaling $22 million in listing volume. That equates to one new listing every 3.2 days. The average listing price of these new lots is $1,584,000. As of Oct 15th, 3 of these new listings (or 21%) are already off the market; as 2 have been put under contract and 1 has already sold.

Click HERE to view the new building site listings

 

Many of the new listings, and the majority of the entry level listings (under $525,000), are located in the Town of Jackson. Three new listings are in Rafter J, two are in Melody Ranch and two are in Teton Village (a Tensleep 2 bdrm condo for $389,000 and a 9th floor 3 bdrm unit at the Four Seasons for $3,050,000 – pictured below).

fourseasons

New listings for building sites are located all over the County, including several high end lots in Spring Creek Ranch, Gros Ventre West & North, and Stilson Ranch. Only one of the new lot listings is priced under $300,000 – a 0.6 acre lot south of Town on Horse Creek Road. The next least expensive lot is a 6.21 acre building site in Game Creek for $649,000 (pictured below). The most expensive new lot listing is for a 2.75 acre parcel in 3 Creek Ranch for $3,550,000.

Game Creek

Of the properties that have already gone under contract, half of them are priced under $600,000 and the majority are located in the Town of Jackson including Cottonwood Flats, E Jackson and Snow King. The two new listings that closed in less than a month included a 2 bdrm house in Wilson, which was not advertised in the MLS, and a 2 bdrm Meadowbrook/Town Creek condo in Town, which sold in 25 days.

Overall, inventory is not being replaced quite as quickly as it has been selling. Over the summer, there were 124 transactions, averaging out to 1.34 sales per day, while the recent new listings (land and homes combined) have been coming onto the market at a rate of about 1 per day in the last month and a half.

Summary: In conclusion, these new listings tell us a few things about the market. 1) Prices (at least asking prices) are increasing. The average listing price for new residential listings in the last 1.5 months was 50% higher than the average SOLD price in the past year. 2) Well priced properties (and even not-so-well priced properties that are in a high demand location or price point) are being snatched up quickly, and 3) overall inventory levels remain lower than usual and demand remains high, especially in the sub $600,000 market.

 

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“What” sold in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market in July 2014?

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Monthly Market Update for July 2014

Jackson Hole, WY

What Sold in July 2014? 

  • 52.5% :: Percentage of single family home sales (much higher than typical)
  • 25% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (down significantly from last month’ s 46%)
  • 22.5% :: Percentage of Land Sales (up from last month’s 14%)
  • 2.5% :: Percentage of distressed property sales (1 short sale in July)
  • 25% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (down again from last month’s 29%)
  • 75% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (up slightly from last month’s 71%)
  • 36% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (down from last month’s 43%)

What it means: The month of July saw the highest amount of single family home sales in almost a year. Single family homes sales accounted for 52.5% of all sales last month and included several high end properties in Teton Pines, Stilson Ranch (pictured below) and Teton Village (which had been on the market for 564 days!).  There were also two high end lot sales in Crescent H and Shooting Star, listed at $5.5 million and $2.3 million, respectively. Neither sale price was disclosed. Conversely, condo and townhome sales were down significantly last month representing only 1/4 of all sales. This trend  mirrors the available inventory, where there are 213 single family homes for sale and only 91 condos available for sale. Land Sales were up again, representing 22.5% of all sales in July. Last month there was one short sale, only the third distressed sale in all of 2014. It was a small condo on Snow King Drive that went under contract back in March 2014.

stilson

breakdown.aug2014

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The summer selling season is here! Many new real estate listings hit the market in Jackson Hole.

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As we enter the spring/summer months, many new listings have come onto the market in Teton County. Since May 1, 2014, there have been 90 new residential listings and 40 new building lot listings. There have also been 7 new commercial listings.

RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS: Ninety new residential listings have hit the market since May 1st with an average listing price of $1,750,000. New listings range from a 2 bedroom condo in Town priced at $214,900 to 2 different $11 million estates – one in John Dodge on the Snake River and one in Crescent H south of Wilson (pictured below).

CrescentH

Of the 90 listings, the majority (38%) are priced between $1,000,000 – $3,000,000. The next largest price segment is the $500,000 – $1,000,000 range where there have been 26 new listings since May 1st. The price segments to see the smallest amount of new listings are Under $300,000 (3 listings) and Over $5,000,000 (4 listings). 

NewListings

So far 6 of these new listings have already gone under contract, which represents only 6.6% of all new listings, suggesting that many buyers have yet to make their move (perhaps because some of these new listing prices are a little too high).

The price point breakdown of the new residential listings is below. Click below to view the new listings in each category:

BUILDING LOT LISTINGS: Since May 1st, there have been 40 new lots to hit the market, with an average listing price of $1,725,000. Available building sites range from the last remaining lot for sale in the new King Eider development in Rafter J (listed for $312,500) to a 48 acre parcel for sale in Crescent H for $5,750,000. None of the newly listing lots have gone under contract, however there are currently 12 lot sales pending in the MLS (properties listed prior to May 1, 2014).  

The price point breakdown of the new lot listings is below. Click below to view the new listings in each category:

COMMERCIAL LISTINGS: Since May 1, 2014 there have been 7 new commercial listings in Teton County. Three lease opportunities – an 1,100 sq foot office space in The Aspens, and office & retail space for lease on the corner of Pearl & King in downtown Jackson. There is also an opportunity to purchase a live/work unit south of town for $895,000 (pictured below). Finally the Teton Gables/Cutty’s Bar & Grill property ($4,850,000) and the old Maverick site ($1,150,000) are also newly available for sale. Click HERE to see all new commercial listings.

LiveWork

Thinking of listing this summer?

If you are currently thinking about selling, I’d be happy to chat with you about the current real estate market. It may be a great time to sell.  Please contact me for more info or to receive a free market analysis on your property. Properties listed by June 20, 2014 will be included in our RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate Summer Brochure!

Brochure

How much has the market really come up since last summer? Are sellers of new listings being aggressive with their pricing or are they reflecting the reality of the current real estate market?

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Prices seem to be going up. Inventory is definitely down. It may be the lowest in decades. New listings hitting the market seem to be higher than we’ve seen in recent years. Is low inventory temporarily increasing demand and pushing prices up? For this month’s Market Focus, I analyzed 4 different market segments comparing sales from last summer (2013) to recent sales and new listing prices. Are current listing prices unreasonably inflated or are they a reflection of an increasing real estate market?

Neighborhood

 Summer Sales (2013)  $/sq ft Recent Sales (2014)  $/sq ft Current Listings  $/sq ft

Rafter J

 $309 $345 – $397 $335 – $416
Cottonwood Park $350 $357

$456 – $523

Aspens Condos

 $378 $333 – $416

$388 (avg)
Town of Jackson $302 $276 – $337

$268 – $321

RAFTER J: Last summer (June – Sept 2013) there were 12 single family homes sales in Rafter J with an average sale price of $560,000 or $309/sq ft. The most recent home sale in the neighborhood was $775,000 for a 2,244 sq foot house, which sold in March 2014. This home was about twice the size of the typical Rafter J home and it sold at the listing price of $345/sq ft. Note: Typically larger homes will have a slightly smaller $/sf number than the average. The second most recent sale in Rafter J was in Dec 2013 and sold for $572,000 or $397/sq ft. Currently there are 3 single family homes for sale in the neighborhood. One has been on the market for almost a year, priced at $415/sq ft. Two newer listings have hit the market at $416/sq ft and $335/sq ft. The latter is a much larger home (2,664 sq ft), which has a lower price per square foot but a larger sale price ($895,000).

COTTONWOOD PARK: There were 5 single family home sales last summer in Cottonwood Park ranging in price from $395,000 – $511,000 for an average sales price of $350/sq ft. The last sale was in Dec 2013 (there hasn’t been a sale yet in 2014) for a house on Mountain View Lane. This home, which is located in the western loop of Cottonwood Park which features larger homes and larger lots than the eastern loop, sold for $560,000 or $357/sq ft – pretty close to the summer sale numbers. Currently there are two houses for sale in Cottonwood Park, a a 3 bdrm/2 bath updated home on Lilac listed for $610,000 or $456/sq ft, and a 2 bdrm/1 bath smaller home (952 sq ft) listed for $498,000 or $523/sq ft (pictured below).

wildflower

CONDOS IN THE ASPENS: Last summer (June-Sept) there were 4 condo sales in The Aspens, the neighborhood located on the Village Rd about 5 minutes from Jackson Hole Mountain Resort and Grand Teton National Park. Three 2 bdrm condos sold between $402,000 – $428,000 and 1 one bdrm condo sold for $290,000. On average, these condos sold for $378/sq ft. The two most recent sales in the neighborhood were both one bedroom condos – one selling in May for $290,000 ($394/sq ft) and one selling in March 2014 for $313,000 ($416/sq ft). Also in March, there were two sales for condos with garages (a rarity in The Aspens). These sold for $333/sq ft and $395/sq ft. Both units were dated and in need of some updating. Currently there are 7 condos on the market listed for an average of $389/sq foot, which seems pretty realistic, perhaps maybe even slightly under market. However there are a few that appear to be overpriced given recent comps, such as a 3 bdrm condo (with a garage) priced at more than $500/sq foot in the Yampa building.

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN TOWN: Sixteen single family homes (listed under $ 1 million) sold last summer in the Town of Jackson (excluding Cottonwood Park – see above). On average, these homes sold for $665,000 or $302/sq foot. The most recent sale was a newly constructed building on W Karns Ave, which sold for $675,000 or $337/sq ft (pictured below). There was also a sale in February for $482,000. This equated to a very low $276/sq ft, which may be explained by the fact that this property was a short sale (distressed sale). Currently there are not many single family homes available for sale in Town – in fact there are only 3 options under $1 million. They are priced between $268 – $321 per square foot, which isn’t outrageous however it should be noted that all 3 houses are either very dated, on a busy road and/or are lacking a garage.

Karns

CONCLUSION: While it seems like sellers in certain market segments (like Cottonwood Park) may be pushing the market, other segments are in line with recent sales (even if they are higher than last summer). Of course there are always outliers and special cases and not all properties are the same, but looking at things on an aggregate level helps us understand the way the market in trending. Probably the single biggest factor in determining where prices will go this summer is the level of inventory or amount of homes available for sale. Simple supply and demand tells us that when inventory is low, demand for houses (and prices) will go up. As we enter the busy listing season (May & June) we will see if an influx of new listings will help stabilize the real estate market. Since the beginning of May, we have seen 15 new listings hit the market, which is a good sign. Time will tell what the rest of the spring will bring!

If you are currently thinking about selling, I’d be happy to chat with you about the current real estate market. It may be a great time to sell!  Please contact me for more info or to receive a free market analysis on your property.marketreport

“What” sold in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market in April 2014?

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Monthly Market Update for May 2014

Jackson Hole, WY

What Sold in April 2014? 

  • 34% :: Percentage of single family home sales (up from last month (28%) but still lower than usual)
  • 46% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (down from last month (52%) but still higher than usual)
  • 20% :: Percentage of Land Sales (typical)
  • 0% :: Percentage of distressed property sales (NO bank sales and NO short sales in April)
  • 31% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (up from last month’s 26%)
  • 69% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (down from 74% in March)
  • 37% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (down slightly from last month and closer to average)

What it means: The month of April saw the breakdown between property type (single family homes/condos & townhomes/land sales) move closer towards normal levels, however condo and townhome sales continue to account for a higher percentage of property sales than normal (and single family homes continue to make up less than normal). On average (over the past 12 months), single family home sales usually make up around 40-45% of all sales, while townhomes and condos tend to make up 35%-37% of all sales (see chart below). Land sales last month were on par with their 12 month average of 19% of all sales.  For the second month in a row, there were NO bank sales and NO short sales. Currently there is only one distressed property available for sale: The Game Creek Ranch, located south of town and listed for $1.395m (pictured below). With regards to the price point of closed sales last month, the breakdown between Over $1 million / Under $1 million / Under $500,000 returned closer to normal last month.

BreakdownPropertyType.May2014

gamecreekranch

Game Creek Ranch – only available short sale in Teton County

Please visit the Real Estate Market Report tab for the entire May Market Report.

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With current inventory levels at an extreme low in the Jackson Hole real estate market, will April showers bring May inventory?

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Potential buyers (or anyone that has been following the Jackson real estate market) have seen how few home purchase options are available right now. It’s typical that inventory levels dip in late winter/early spring as the existing inventory has been absorbed and many potential Sellers are waiting for warmer weather (and greener lawns) to list their properties for sale. However, this spring, inventory levels are particularly low. For example, there are only 13 single family homes for sale in the Town of Jackson, none of which are priced under $500,000. In fact only 5 of them are priced under $1 million. There is currently nothing for sale in Cottonwood Park, only 1 townhome for sale in Rafter J, and only 2 market homes for sale in all of Melody Ranch. Another example: only 6 condos for sale in Teton Village (excluding condo hotels), and only two priced under $500,000. Finally, as I reported last month in my Jackson Real Estate Market Analysis, less than a half dozen condos are currently on the market in The Aspens.

While I was working on this month’s report, I went back to my April 2013 market report where I analyzed the temporary bubble created by a lack of inventory.  It was interesting to note that, compared to this spring, the inventory didn’t seem too low! Last year at this time, there were 11 single family homes for sale under $500,000 in Teton County; today there are 2 – a cabin in Moran ($169,000) and a deed restricted attainable home in Melody Ranch ($475,000).

Available Properties for Sale in Teton County that are:

April 2013

April 2014
All Properties Under $500,000

44

24
Single family homes Under $500,000

11

2
All Properties Under $300,000

8

8

If you are currently thinking about selling, I’d be happy to chat with you about the current real estate market. It may be a great time to sell!  Please contact me for more info or to receive a free market analysis on your property.

marketreport

Jackson Real Estate Market Analysis: Condos in The Aspens

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Condos in The Aspens have been a popular real estate purchase for many years for many different types of buyers. Second homeowners enjoy the ease of access to Jackson Hole Mountain Resort and Grand Teton National Park. Locals have been attracted to the convenient location of The Aspens with its proximity to restaurants, the bus line, a coffee shop and a grocery store. Investors continue to be drawn by the lucrative short term rental market. Whatever the reason, people have been buying Aspens condos! Since Jan 2013, there have been 24 condo sales in The Aspens. Twenty of those sales occurred in 2013 (which equates to about 2 sales a month).  In 2013, the average sales price for an Aspens condo was $408,650 or $356/sq ft. One bedroom units sold on average for $295,000. Two bedrooms went for an average of $427,000 and 3 bedroom units commanded an average price of $592,000. The highest condo sale in The Aspens in 2013 was a top floor 3 bedroom Wheatgrass condo, which sold for $625,000 in Oct 2013. In 2014, we’ve already seen 4 sales in The Aspens (again about 2 per month) including a Windflower 3 bedroom which sold for $630,000 in Jan 2014 (pictured below) and most recently a 2 bedroom end unit condo in the Hawthorne building which sold for $289,000 last week.

Windflower

Where has all the inventory gone?

If you read my Market Reports, you are aware that inventory is currently thin in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market. The Aspens sub-market is no exception. Right now, there are 4 condos for sale in The Aspens including a one bedroom + loft in the Sagebrush building, a 3 bedroom Woodlands condo with over 1,800 sq feet, a remodeled 3 bedroom unit with a detached garage, and a 3 bedroom Cove unit with mountain views. Click HERE to view all 4 available listings. Based on past absorption rates (2 sales per month), we have about a 2 month supply of inventory – not much!

There are currently 2 condo sales pending in The Aspens. The last new listing to hit the market  was a nicely remodeled one bedroom unit in the Tamarack building (pictured below). It was on the market for less than 10 days before receiving multiple offers and going under contract close to list price.

Tamaracl

Spring time in the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market usually means an influx of new listings as sellers seek to take advantage of the warmer weather and green landscapes. Already we are starting to see some new listing activity. In the past 2 weeks, 14 new listings have hit the market in Teton County. It will be interesting to see what (and how many) new listings pop up in The Aspens this Spring.

marketreport

If you currently own a condo in The Aspens, I’d be happy to chat with you about the current real estate market. It may be a great time to sell! Please contact me for more info or to receive a free market analysis on your property.

Summary of Real Estate Sales Statistics for Jan 2014 in Jackson Hole

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Monthly Market Update for February 2014

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – January 2014:

  • 24 :: Total residential sale transactions (down again from last month’s 33)
  • $18,000,000 :: Total residential sales volume reported to MLS (also down significantly from past months)
  • $930,000::  Average sales price of reported sales (similar to last month)
  • 95% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (up slightly from last month’s 94%)
  • 550 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (up significantly from the last few months)

What it means: The New Year was off to a slow start, with only 24 residential sale transactions amounting to $18 million of reported sales volume in the month of January. Even if we include the 4 unreported sales, which could add roughly another $6.5 million to the sales volume totals, that number is still low compared to recent months (see chart below). Remember that December was also an unusually slow month with only 33 transactions for $28 million in sales volume. At first glance, these numbers may suggest that the market is slowing down or plateauing. I don’t believe that is the case as there are 52 properties in Teton County currently under contract for sale that should be closing in the next few months. A more plausible explanation for the past few slow months may be our current drought of inventory. For example, there is only ONE existing house for sale in Rafter J, only TWO 1-bdrm condos for sale in The Aspens and currently NO single family homes for sale in the Town of Jackson priced under $500,000.  Low inventory levels (a.k.a. supply) inevitably put upward pressure on prices as we see demand remain strong in Teton County. The result? Quick sales on well priced properties, especially homes located in these low supply sub-markets – many times with multiple offers on the property! With low inventory levels, we also see an absorption of the existing older inventory, some of which has been on the market a very long time. This month there were several sales of property that first hit the market 2, 3, and over 4 years ago!

Transactions.Feb2014

SalesVolume.Feb2014


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Year in Review: 2013 Teton County Real Estate Sales highest of past 6 years

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As we move into 2014, it’s helpful to look back at the real estate activity in 2013 and by comparing that to past years statistics, try to determine where the market is heading (isn’t that what we all want to know?!). I should first note that the below numbers are compiled from closed real estate sales in Teton County as reported to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). They include residential sales, land sales and commercial property sales.

TETON COUNTY: In 2013 there were 557 sale transactions totaling $656 million in sales volume in Teton County. This is almost 100 more transactions and $40 million more in volume than in 2012. These strong numbers come in spite of the fact that Dec 2013 was a very quiet month, recording only 33 transactions for $32 million in sales volume. Compare that to Dec 2012, which ended with a bang as 55 properties exchanged hands for a staggering $124 million. October 2013 proved to be the busiest month as 58 sales totaled almost $130 million. Looking at sales volume by month, for each year in the chart below, it’s clear that 2013 (orange colored line) had the 4th highest sales volume since 2002. For the early part of the year, volume was right in line with volumes seen in 2004 (yellow). Sales volume for 2013 was still behind the peak years of 2005-2007 (top three lines), but were well above the bottom year of 2009 (salmon).

TCCompare

TOWN OF JACKSON: Real Estate Sales in the Town of Jackson saw a significant bump in both transactions (213) and sales volume ($122 million) in 2013. This past year marked the highest sales volume levels in Town since 2008, when $128 million in sales occurred but with roughly half of the transactions (122). This comparison illustrates that the high sales volume in 2013 was achieved not through million dollar home sales, but through many lower end condo, townhome and entry level single family home sales. Interestingly, Town chalked up more than 4x the number of sales in Teton Village (48) and nearly 65% more in sales volume ($74 million).

Town

 REAL ESTATE FORECAST FOR 2014: As we enter 2014, I believe the main concern for the real estate market with be the available inventory (or lack of it!). Will there be anything to sell in 2014? For anyone that is currently shopping the market, it’s obvious that the inventory levels are very thin. For example, there is currently only one existing single family home for sale in Rafter J, NO single family homes under $500,000 in Town and NO homes in Melody Ranch under $1 million. Due to these low inventory levels, we may start to see Sellers taking a bolder position on pricing, knowing that they are the only option for buyers looking in a particular market/location. Will buyers be willing to over pay for a property they like, especially if it’s the only one they can find? While there may be a few of those buyers here and there, I think most buyers will not chase the prices up remembering the lessons learned from the last bubble burst (in 2008-2009), where the majority of properties in Teton County lost about 30-35% in value. If the later occurs, we may see sales activity (and values) plateau until more inventory (supply) enters the market.

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