Sales and Volume decline in 2016, while affordable inventory dwindles – Quarterly Update from The Jackson Hole Report

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Sale transactions and dollar volume are down in the first quarter of 2016 while available inventory in the entry level market dwindles, resulting in increased demand for well priced properties. The Jackson Hole Report, a quarterly market report prepared by my colleague David Viehman at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, provides insights into the local real estate market through the end of the 1st quarter 2016. Click HERE to read the full 2016 Q1 Report. A summary of statistics/trends follows:

OVERALL MARKET

  • Total number of Sale Transactions are down 26%
  • Sales under $1 million are down 36%
  • Overall dollar volume is down 27%
  • Due to limited inventory, the Average Sale Price increased by 11% in Q1 2016
  • Hot Price Point: Properties priced between $1-3 million, where 40% of the sales occurred in the first quarter
  • Hot Location: The Westbank (including Teton Village) which accounted for 45% of all sales in the first quarter
CrystalSprings

Crystal Springs condo sold in Teton Village (listed by JH Sotheby’s)

HIGH END MARKET

  • While high-end property sales ($2+ million) were down 68% in the first quarter, there are 39 high-end properties under contract (an increase of 34%), with an average list price of more than $4.5 million
  • Available inventory of high end properties is up 20% compared to this time last year
  • There are 47 properties for sale over $5 million, an increase of 18%
  • The most expensive property for sale in Teton County is a 580 acre ranch (with 6 building sites), listed for $45 million (pictured below)
580Acres

580 acres available for sale off Spring Gulch Rd – $45 million (listed by Live Water Properties)

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

  • Single family home sales in the first quarter were consistent with sales last year at this time
  • However, the average sale price increased 18% to $2.3 million
  • Single family home sales over $1 million are up 13%
  • Single family home sales over $3 million are up 100% compared to this time last year!
  • While over all single family inventory is up 8%, available homes under $1 million are at a 25 year low
  • Only 15% of available single family homes are priced under $1 million
  • Considering that 47 homes sold in this segment in 2015, there is less than 1 month of available inventory for home under $1 million.
  • Click HERE to view the 20 single family home listings priced under $1 million
HiddenRanch

Single family home available in Hidden Ranch – $925,000 (listed by JHREA)

CONDO/TOWNHOME

  • Overall condo sales are down 29%, with only 39 sales in the first 3 months of 2016
  • The average sales price dropped 11%, however the price of available inventory is up 38% – which represents the highest average condo list price since the start of the recession in 2008
  • Condo sales under $500,000 decreased by 39% in Q1 2016 due to low inventory levels
  • Condo listings under $500,000 sell in 86 days, on average, many times receiving multiple offers
  • Only 28% of available condos are priced under $500,000

VACANT LAND

  • Lot sales are down significantly (58%) with only 14 sales in the first quarter of 2016
  • Average sales price is up 16%
  • Overall available inventory dropped 5% from last year, however list prices remained consistent.
  • Available vacant land for sale under $500,000 is only 1/4 of what was available in 2013 & 2014.
  • Majority (71%) of vacant land buyers are second homeowners and/or retiring baby boomers.

marketreport

As we approach the busy summer listing/selling season, the amount (and price) of new inventory will dictate future market values. The law of supply and demand will especially affect the sub $1 million segment, where current supply levels are very low compared to 2015, representing only 2 months of inventory. Whether you are a first time or seasoned home buyer, there are still opportunities out there, with many not listed in the MLS. If you are an active buyer, or looking to get into the Jackson Hole real estate market, please connect with me for an honest and comprehensive analysis of the current buying opportunities in our market.

As a Seller, the best strategy is to price your property competitively (based on the most comparable sales) and market it effectively, as buyers continue to be motivated by finding a good value. If you are interested in a learning what your property could sell for in this market, please connect with me for a free, in-depth, data-driven market analysis.

Nearly 50 new listings hit the Jackson Hole real estate market in March 2016

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for April 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

What’s new in Mar 2016? (New Listing Analysis)

  • 48 :: Total number of new listings in March
    • Total New Listing Volume: $66,500,000
    • Average List Price: $1,385,000
  • 40 new residential properties (single family, condo, townhome)
    • Average List Price: $1,415,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 14
  • 8 new building sites
    • Average List Price: $1,235,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 3

What it means: New listing activity picked up in March, with nearly 50 new properties hitting the Teton County real estate market. We should expect to see more inventory each month as we get closer to the busy summer selling season. New listings in March outpaced March sales at a rate of 2 to 1, marking the first time since last Aug 2015 that new listings have been at least 2x that of monthly sales. In March, there were 17 new condo/townhome listings under $750,000, adding some much needed inventory to the entry level market. By April 10th, 8 of these new listings were already under contract, illustrating the high demand for properties in this price point. At the other end of the spectrum, there were 7 single family homes that hit the market priced in excess of $2 million including a recently remodeled home in the Gill Addition ($2.25m and pictured below), an equestrian estate in the Flat Creek Fishing Club ($3.96m) and a 5,400 sq ft home in Owl Creek listed for just under $6 million. Eight new lot listings hit the market in March including, 4 of which are located north of Town with great Teton views.

As we approach the busy selling season, Sellers will be in a great position to sell this Spring/Summer. If you are curious about the value of your property in the current market, please contact me for a free and accurate market analysis.

Notable new listings in March include:

  • 23 different options to own a tenant-in-common interest at the Fireside Resort – $350,000-$395,000 (Note: These properties are not available for conventional financing. In the new listing stats above, these options were only counted as 2 new listings for March)
  • Bright and sunny 3 bed / 3.5 bath townhome in East Jackson – $695,000
  • Four contiguous lots zoned for multi-family development in Town  -$3,000,000

Click HERE to view all new March residential listings.

Click HERE to view all new March land listings.

NewListings

NewVSold

GillAddition

Recently remodeled home in the Gill Addition – $2.25 million – listed by RE/MAX Obsidian

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for April 2016.

Thinking of listing this summer?

As we approach the busy selling season, Sellers will be in a great position to benefit from low inventory levels in the Jackson Hole market. If you are curious about the value of your property in the current market, please contact me for a free and accurate market analysis. Properties listed by April 30, 2016 will be included in our RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate Spring Brochure!

Please consider following The Colbert Real Estate Report on social media for hot picks, market trends and industry news.

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New inventory entering the market very low, even for January

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for February 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

What’s new in Jan 2016? (New Listing Analysis)

  • 25 :: Total number of new listings in January
    • Average List Price: $1,160,000
  • 22 new residential properties (single family, condo, townhome)
    • Average List Price: $1,200,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 2
  • 3 new building sites
    • Average List Price: $860,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 1

What it means: January saw a continued a trend of very little new inventory entering the market (not even 1 new listing per day!). Compare that to the peak of summer, when 80-120 new listings were hitting the market every month. While the winter months are usually slow for new listings, this winter we are seeing even fewer new listings compared to last year (see chart below). It is interesting to note that 3 of the “new” listing aren’t actually new at all, but back on the market with different real estate companies (new year, new realtor?).  Of those Sellers who listed their properties in January, the majority were close to the skiing activities in Teton Village, The Aspens/Pines and Snow King Resort. Five new listings hit the market in Teton Village including two condo-hotel units in Teton Mountain Lodge and a 3,400 sq foot Granite Ridge cabin (pictured below). At Snow King Resort, the inventory of Love Ridge condos went from 0 to 3, as several new units hit the market in January. The average listing price of new inventory dropped in January, thanks to several new entry level condos in Town, including a 2 bed/1 bath condo near Powderhorn Park for $349,000. Activity seems to be cooling a bit in January as only 3 of these new listings (or 8%) have gone under contract by Feb 10th, marking one of the lowest levels of activity in recent months. That being said, a rarely listed 3 bed / 3 bath / 1 car garage in The Aspens (listed at $990,000) and a commercial lot in Hoback (listed at $299,000) did go under contract quickly illustrating that well priced and/or high demand properties are selling quickly.  While low inventory levels may have contributed to rapidly rising values in 2015, we may be entering a phase of the market where transactions decline AND values are stagnant, or may even decline a bit. While I don’t for see a drop off like we saw several years ago, I do anticipate a slight market correction in 2016.   (If you are curious about the value of your property in the current market, please contact me for a free and honest analysis.) 

Notable new listings in January include:

  • Love Ridge condo at Snow King (1 of 3 new listings) – $1,350,000 – a list price not seen since the 2007 peak
  • Nicely remodeled and immaculately cared for 3 bedroom home in Town on Aspen Drive – $975,000
  • Two bed/1 bath condo near Lucky’s Market – priced below last comp at $349,000

Click HERE to view all new January residential listings.

Click HERE to view all new January land listings.

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NewVSold

AVSP-NewVSold

GraniteRidge

Newly Listed: Granite Ridge Cabin in Teton Village $3.25m (listed by JH Sotheby’s)

 

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for February 2016.

With the help of my friends and customers, I’ve been voted one of Jackson’s Best Realtors since 2012 and am hoping you can help me earn the GOLD medal this year!

 BestofJH2016_7

May I ask for your vote? 

Visit www.bestofjh.com to vote. Be sure to vote for all your other Jackson favorites. It’s fun!

I very much appreciate your support! 

Condo/Townhome sales rebound in January in Town of Jackson

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for February 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

What Sold in Jan 2016? 

  • 43% :: Percentage of single family home sales (slight dip from last month)
  • 48% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (jump after low last month)
  • 9% :: Percentage of Land Sales (down after high last month)
  • 43% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (identical to last month)
  • 57% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (identical to last month)
  • 33% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (huge jump after low last month)
  • 3 :: Commercial Land Sales (after 10 last month)

What it means: Single family home sales dipped slightly last month but still remained close to average levels.  Condo and townhome sales jumped up in January, representing nearly 1/2 of all sales after an all-time low in December (17% of all sales).  Land Sales, which were at an all time high in December (35% of all sales), leveled off to typical levels in January. Property sales under $500,000 rebounded in January after recording only 3 sales in December. This is a bit of good news for the entry level market, as 2015 saw a downward trend in sales under $500,000 (See 2015 Year End Review). It remains to be seen if this trend will continue as we move through 2016 (there are 17 condos under $500,000 available now). All of the sales under the half million mark in January were condos in The Aspens or the Town of Jackson, including a one bedroom Hollybock building in The Aspens, which sold close to asking price after only 51 days on the market. Sales above $1 million remained consistent, accounting for nearly 1/2 of all sales in January. Separately, there were 3 large commercial land sales in the month of January (after 10 commercial sales in December!), as investors and developers continue to have interest in the Jackson Hole market.  Notably, 8 commercial lots on the corner of N Cache and Mercill (across from the Forest Service building) sold for an undisclosed amount to a Marriott & Hilton franchise (listed for a collective $7.8 million and pictured below).

Over1

Under500

Breakdown

Commercial

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for February 2016.

With the help of my friends and customers, I’ve been voted one of Jackson’s Best Realtors since 2012 and am hoping you can help me earn the GOLD medal this year!

 BestofJH2016_7

May I ask for your vote? 

Visit www.bestofjh.com to vote. Be sure to vote for all your other Jackson favorites. It’s fun!

I very much appreciate your support! 

Sale Transactions & Dollar Volume down at start of New Year

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for February 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Jan 2016:

  • 21 :: Total residential sale transactions (lowest in past year)
  • $32,690,000 :: Total residential sales volume (down again from last month)
  • $1,560,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (down from last month)
  • 95% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (same as last month)
  • 225 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (up slightly from last month)

What it means:  Real estate sale transactions continued to decline in January, reaching a low not seen in the past several years! Sales volume also decreased again, representing the 3rd lowest levels seen in the past year. While January is typically a slow month for sales (Jan 2015 had only 22 sales), some evidence suggests that these sluggish levels of activity may stick around.  The average sales price dipped to $1.5 million in January, after 3 of the last 4 months saw average prices up near $2 million mark. The ratio of sale price to listing price remained at 95% for the second month in a row suggesting that recently buyers are purchasing property at slightly more of a discount (on average). In January, only 2 properties sold within 1% of the listing price (compare that to December, where 35% of all sales sold at, near, or above the listing price). Properties that sold in January were on the market for an average of 225 days. In particular, there were 7 properties that sold after 6 months on the market and 4 that sold after being on the market for over a year. This could be a result of not much new inventory hitting the market, forcing buyers to focus on the existing, older inventory. There were several high-end sales in January, in which the sales prices were not disclosed to the MLS including a 10 acre estate perched above the Town of Kelly (listed for $7.5 million), a 6,000 sq foot house in Crescent H (listed for $7.9 million and pictured below) and a 6 bedroom home at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort.

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Volume

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CrescentH

6,000 sq foot home in Crescent H sold in January (listed by JHREA)

 

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for February 2016.

 

With the help of my friends and customers, I’ve been voted one of Jackson’s Best Realtors since 2012 and am hoping you can help me earn the GOLD medal this year!

 BestofJH2016_7

May I ask for your vote? 

Visit www.bestofjh.com to vote. Be sure to vote for all your other Jackson favorites. It’s fun!

I very much appreciate your support! 

Rate of new inventory continues to decline, now matches rate of inventory selling in Jackson Hole real estate market

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for October 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

What’s new in October 2015? (New Listing Analysis)

  • 46 :: Total number of new listings in Oct
    • Average List Price: $1,118,000
  • 36 new residential properties (single family, condo, townhome)
    • Average List Price: $1,300,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 4
  • 10 new building sites
    • Average List Price: $935,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 1

What it means: New listings hitting the market each month continue to drop since the height of the listing season in June, however compared to October 2014, we did see more new listings this year (36 v 46). The average listing price of new inventory dropped in October and was the lowest average in the past 8 months (see chart below). As of November 10th, only 11% of these new listings are under contract or sold. Compare that to last month where nearly 30% of the September new listings were under contract by mid October. The rate of new inventory coming onto the market in October was identical to inventory leaving the market (i.e. sales). This is the first time since November 2014 that new listings have NOT exceeded sales in any given month (see chart below). Fewer and fewer sellers choose to list their property in the winter months, believing that their property will show much better during the spring/summer when everything is green. That being said, now may be a great time to sell a property as there is not much new inventory (i.e. competition) coming onto the market. (Please contact me for a free in-depth analysis on the current market value of your property.) 

Notable new listings in October include:

  • A 2 bed / 2 bath single family home with 1 car garage and fenced backyard in Town: $607,500
  • Two building sites in Kelly with direct Teton views: $479,000 each
  • A 6,500 sq ft modern designed house atop Spring Creek Ranch: $15,000,000 (pictured below)

Click HERE to view all new October residential listings.

Click HERE to view all new October land listings.

NewListings

NewVSoldListings

SoldvNew

SpringCreek

Modern Home in Spring Creek – Listing in October for $15,000,000

 

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for November 2015.

Please consider following The Colbert Real Estate Report on social media for hot picks, market trends and industry news.

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Average New Listing Prices are 2.5x greater than Average Sales Price in July

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The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Aug 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

What’s new in July 2015? (New Listing Analysis)

  • 94 :: Total number of new listings in June (a drop after several increasing months)
  • 76 new residential properties (single family, condo, townhome)
    • Average List Price: $1,890,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 13
  • 18 new building sites
    • Average List Price: $2,590,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 0

What it means: New listings took a dip in July after several months of steady increases, however we are still ahead of new listings from this time last year (July 2014 = 82 new listings). New inventory continues to outpace sales at a rate of nearly 3x, meaning for every sale, there are almost 3 new listings that hit the market. (Compare that to last fall when for several months there were more sales than new listings – see chart below.) The average listing price of all new listings in July (land and residential combined) remained high at nearly $2.25 million, which is almost 2.5x the average sales price in July (see Summary Section). For the past several months, between 22% – 32% of a month’s new listings are already under contract or sold by the time this report is published (usually around the 10th of the next month). Currently only 17% of the new July listings are under contract, a sharp drop from last month’s 29%. This further illustrates the recent lull in the market, which is also marked by lower transactions and sales volume (see Summary Section).

Notable new listings in July include: two new Elk Run townhomes listed just under $550,000 (one pictured below), a rarely listed Hillside condo overlooking Karns Meadow (already under contract), and 3 properties priced north of $5 million in Shooting Star, John Dodge and Teton Pines.

Click HERE to view all new July residential listings.

Click HERE to view all new July land listings.

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new v sales

ElkRun

Recently listed Elk Run for $545,000

Still thinking of listing this summer? ForSale

If you are currently thinking about selling, I’d be happy to chat with you about the current real estate market. As a Seller, you may benefit from low inventory levels and resulting pent up demand in Teton County. Please contact me for more info or to receive a free market analysis on your property.

 

Inventory Levels in Jackson Hole: Then and Now

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Teton County sees historically low inventory levels as we enter the busy spring/summer listing season

marketfocus

As my colleague David Viehman noted in his year end Jackson Hole Report (and I summarized in a previous analysis),current inventory levels are at or near their lowest levels in 25 years. At the end of 2014…..

  • Overall available inventory in Teton County was down 15% from 2013, and is now at the second lowest level in 25 years
  • Single family home inventory was the lowest in 25 years
  • Condo/Townhome inventory was down 23% compared to year end 2013, marking the 3rd lowest condo inventory in the past 25 years
  • Available land inventory was down 12% compared to year end 2013

I went back over the past year and determined the number of new listings (residential property in Teton County) to hit the MLS each month. Typically spring and early summer see the most new listings, which was the case in 2014 when there were 228 new listings in the months of May and June last year. Since the start of the new year we’ve seen a total of only 141 new listings. After 6 months of limited new inventory, listing activity picked up in March with 59 new listings. It will be interesting to see if March’s increase continues into our spring/early summer listing season. How much new inventory will we see in May and June? Will it be at the same levels we saw in 2014?

NewListings

It’s also interesting to compare the number of new listings with the sale transactions that occur each month. Last spring/early summer there were almost 4 times as many new listings hitting the market as there were sales each month. Compare that to the Fall months of 2014 (Sept/Oct/Nov) where there was not even enough new inventory to replace the sales that occurred those months. In the past 3 months, we’ve seen slightly more new listings than sales, however historically low inventory levels in the past 6 months are likely contributing to the low transaction levels.

NewVsSold

 

Interested in keeping an eye on new listings this spring/summer? Would you like to be alerted as soon as a new listing hits the market in a particular location or price range? 

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The summer selling season is here! Many new real estate listings hit the market in Jackson Hole.

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As we enter the spring/summer months, many new listings have come onto the market in Teton County. Since May 1, 2014, there have been 90 new residential listings and 40 new building lot listings. There have also been 7 new commercial listings.

RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS: Ninety new residential listings have hit the market since May 1st with an average listing price of $1,750,000. New listings range from a 2 bedroom condo in Town priced at $214,900 to 2 different $11 million estates – one in John Dodge on the Snake River and one in Crescent H south of Wilson (pictured below).

CrescentH

Of the 90 listings, the majority (38%) are priced between $1,000,000 – $3,000,000. The next largest price segment is the $500,000 – $1,000,000 range where there have been 26 new listings since May 1st. The price segments to see the smallest amount of new listings are Under $300,000 (3 listings) and Over $5,000,000 (4 listings). 

NewListings

So far 6 of these new listings have already gone under contract, which represents only 6.6% of all new listings, suggesting that many buyers have yet to make their move (perhaps because some of these new listing prices are a little too high).

The price point breakdown of the new residential listings is below. Click below to view the new listings in each category:

BUILDING LOT LISTINGS: Since May 1st, there have been 40 new lots to hit the market, with an average listing price of $1,725,000. Available building sites range from the last remaining lot for sale in the new King Eider development in Rafter J (listed for $312,500) to a 48 acre parcel for sale in Crescent H for $5,750,000. None of the newly listing lots have gone under contract, however there are currently 12 lot sales pending in the MLS (properties listed prior to May 1, 2014).  

The price point breakdown of the new lot listings is below. Click below to view the new listings in each category:

COMMERCIAL LISTINGS: Since May 1, 2014 there have been 7 new commercial listings in Teton County. Three lease opportunities – an 1,100 sq foot office space in The Aspens, and office & retail space for lease on the corner of Pearl & King in downtown Jackson. There is also an opportunity to purchase a live/work unit south of town for $895,000 (pictured below). Finally the Teton Gables/Cutty’s Bar & Grill property ($4,850,000) and the old Maverick site ($1,150,000) are also newly available for sale. Click HERE to see all new commercial listings.

LiveWork

Thinking of listing this summer?

If you are currently thinking about selling, I’d be happy to chat with you about the current real estate market. It may be a great time to sell.  Please contact me for more info or to receive a free market analysis on your property. Properties listed by June 20, 2014 will be included in our RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate Summer Brochure!

Brochure

Affordable Housing in Teton County: The Grove Development & Regional Housing Survey

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Housing in Teton County has been an important issue for many years. The Jackson Hole area, and the housing options it offers, is very unique. First of all, the available supply is extremely low. Over 97% of land in Teton County is publically owned (by the State, the County, the National Park, the National Forest, the Elk Refuge, etc.), which leaves only 3% of land available for private ownership. However, much of this privately held land is not developable due to conservation easements, wetlands, or zoning restrictions. So, in a nutshell, we don’t have much land to work with. When our population increases, we simply can’t go ‘build more housing’. Add to this equation some of the most beautiful landscapes of mountains, rivers, canyons and lakes which makes Jackson Hole a very desirable place to live. As a result, Jackson Hole has some of the highest real estate values in the country, where the AVERAGE price for a home hovers around $1 million and the least expensive single family home for sale in the Town of Jackson is $595,000 (for a fixer upper with no garage!).

WyomingBarn

It’s no surprise that many working and middle class people find it very difficult to purchase a home here. Even if they can save up the down payment and/or receive help from a family member, they are still facing an increasing real estate market and many times competing with cash buyers or multiple offers (or both!). The rental market is also very tight in Teton County (some say the worst it’s ever been!). In the paper today, there were over 300 available job postings and only 3 available housing ads in the Jackson Hole area.

Several agencies and organizations in the county strive to help fill this ‘gap” by offering deed restricted affordable housing. One such project is The Grove, located off Snow King Ave near the Library, which when completed, will offer 68 affordable housing units. The first phase will consist of 20 affordable rental units, which should help alleviate the current tight rental market. Later phases in 2015/2016 will include 48 ownership opportunities. There is a ground breaking ceremony tonight from 5:00pm – 7:00pm.

Grove

Regional Housing Survey

Teton County (along with Freemont, Madison and Teton County Idaho) are working together to offer a Housing and Quality of Life Survey. The survey, funded by a federal HUD Sustainable Communities Grant, focuses on housing availability, quality of housing, desired housing options, quality of life, etc. The survey results will be combined with other data (census, MLS, etc.) and will be the basis for setting housing policy in each County going forward.

www.4countysurvey.com

Please consider taking the survey. It takes under 5 minutes and is completely confidential/anonymous. It’s important for our community leaders to know and understand the housing needs of Teton County.