Prices seem to be going up. Inventory is definitely down. It may be the lowest in decades. New listings hitting the market seem to be higher than we’ve seen in recent years. Is low inventory temporarily increasing demand and pushing prices up? For this month’s Market Focus, I analyzed 4 different market segments comparing sales from last summer (2013) to recent sales and new listing prices. Are current listing prices unreasonably inflated or are they a reflection of an increasing real estate market?

RAFTER J: Last summer (June – Sept 2013) there were 12 single family homes sales in Rafter J with an average sale price of $560,000 or $309/sq ft. The most recent home sale in the neighborhood was $775,000 for a 2,244 sq foot house, which sold in March 2014. This home was about twice the size of the typical Rafter J home and it sold at the listing price of $345/sq ft. Note: Typically larger homes will have a slightly smaller $/sf number than the average. The second most recent sale in Rafter J was in Dec 2013 and sold for $572,000 or $397/sq ft. Currently there are 3 single family homes for sale in the neighborhood. One has been on the market for almost a year, priced at $415/sq ft. Two newer listings have hit the market at $416/sq ft and $335/sq ft. The latter is a much larger home (2,664 sq ft), which has a lower price per square foot but a larger sale price ($895,000).

COTTONWOOD PARK: There were 5 single family home sales last summer in Cottonwood Park ranging in price from $395,000 – $511,000 for an average sales price of $350/sq ft. The last sale was in Dec 2013 (there hasn’t been a sale yet in 2014) for a house on Mountain View Lane. This home, which is located in the western loop of Cottonwood Park which features larger homes and larger lots than the eastern loop, sold for $560,000 or $357/sq ft – pretty close to the summer sale numbers. Currently there are two houses for sale in Cottonwood Park, a a 3 bdrm/2 bath updated home on Lilac listed for $610,000 or $456/sq ft, and a 2 bdrm/1 bath smaller home (952 sq ft) listed for $498,000 or $523/sq ft (pictured below).

CONDOS IN THE ASPENS: Last summer (June-Sept) there were 4 condo sales in The Aspens, the neighborhood located on the Village Rd about 5 minutes from Jackson Hole Mountain Resort and Grand Teton National Park. Three 2 bdrm condos sold between $402,000 – $428,000 and 1 one bdrm condo sold for $290,000. On average, these condos sold for $378/sq ft. The two most recent sales in the neighborhood were both one bedroom condos – one selling in May for $290,000 ($394/sq ft) and one selling in March 2014 for $313,000 ($416/sq ft). Also in March, there were two sales for condos with garages (a rarity in The Aspens). These sold for $333/sq ft and $395/sq ft. Both units were dated and in need of some updating. Currently there are 7 condos on the market listed for an average of $389/sq foot, which seems pretty realistic, perhaps maybe even slightly under market. However there are a few that appear to be overpriced given recent comps, such as a 3 bdrm condo (with a garage) priced at more than $500/sq foot in the Yampa building.

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN TOWN: Sixteen single family homes (listed under $ 1 million) sold last summer in the Town of Jackson (excluding Cottonwood Park – see above). On average, these homes sold for $665,000 or $302/sq foot. The most recent sale was a newly constructed building on W Karns Ave, which sold for $675,000 or $337/sq ft (pictured below). There was also a sale in February for $482,000. This equated to a very low $276/sq ft, which may be explained by the fact that this property was a short sale (distressed sale). Currently there are not many single family homes available for sale in Town – in fact there are only 3 options under $1 million. They are priced between $268 – $321 per square foot, which isn’t outrageous however it should be noted that all 3 houses are either very dated, on a busy road and/or are lacking a garage.

CONCLUSION: While it seems like sellers in certain market segments (like Cottonwood Park) may be pushing the market, other segments are in line with recent sales (even if they are higher than last summer). Of course there are always outliers and special cases and not all properties are the same, but looking at things on an aggregate level helps us understand the way the market in trending. Probably the single biggest factor in determining where prices will go this summer is the level of inventory or amount of homes available for sale. Simple supply and demand tells us that when inventory is low, demand for houses (and prices) will go up. As we enter the busy listing season (May & June) we will see if an influx of new listings will help stabilize the real estate market. Since the beginning of May, we have seen 15 new listings hit the market, which is a good sign. Time will tell what the rest of the spring will bring!

If you are currently thinking about selling, I’d be happy to chat with you about the current real estate market. It may be a great time to sell!  Please contact me for more info or to receive a free market analysis on your property.