2020: January Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in January?

What Sold

The New Year started out strong with 41 real estate sales in January 2020, an increase of 20% from December 2019. Those 41 sales translated to $90 million in sales volume, the highest monthly volume in the past 3 months. As a result, the average sale price for January 2020 reached $2.2 million, breaking $2 million for the first time since August 2019. The median sale price dropped $130,000 to $1.27 million in January with 34% of all sales occurring under $1 million and another 12 sales occurring between $1,000,000 – $1,300,000. Days on market increased slightly in January, with the average property selling in 191 days, however high demand and well priced listings are selling much more quickly. The sale to list price ratio remained at 95% for the third month in a row, with 7 of the 41 sales occurring at or above the listing price including a stand-alone townhome on East Hall, that received five offers in the first few days of listing, quickly selling for full price of $1,095,000 . The majority (41%) of the sales in January were single family homes, while townhomes accounted for 37% of all sales. Interestingly, there were 9 lot sales in January representing nearly 1 in every 4 sales last month, quite the increase considering that vacant land accounted for an average of 14% of all sales over the last 8 months. Nearly half (44%) of all sales occurred in the $1-3 million range, perhaps signalling a trend after representing 50% of all sales in Dec 2019. The high end segment started the New Year strong with 9 sales over $3 million in January, including several homes around Teton Village in Shooting Star, Granite Ridge, and Lake Creek Ranch.

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$89,912,254

Total Sales Volume

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191

Average Days on Market

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$1,270,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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41%

Single Family Home Sales

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

66%

of property sales over $1M

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4

TRANSACTION UNDER $500,000

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Cta_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]
Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: January New Listings in Jackson Hole

What happened in January?

New Listings

The first month of the New Year saw 32 new listings enter the market, a slight increase over December 2019, however still roughly one-third of new inventory seen during the summer months. Listing volume topped $110 million for the second month in a row. The average listing price dropped slightly from December but remained strong at $3.4 million, continuing to outpace the average sale price by more than a $1 million for the last 2 months. The median list price spiked in January, topping $2 million for the first time since I began tracking this stat in April 2017. Not a surprise, considering that over 80% of January new listings were over $1 million with a whopping 40% of new listings over $3 million last month. Several high end homes came on the market at 3 Creek ($11.75 million), Solitude ($7.5 million) and a beautiful custom home north of town, listed for $16.9 million (and already under contract!). Only 5 new listings entered the “locals market” ($500,000 – $1 million) and only one property hit the market under $500,000 – a one bedroom condo in East Jackson, listed for $365,000 that received 3 immediate offers. New listings were split almost equally between single family homes (14) and townhomes (13) with 5 vacant lots coming onto the market in January, including a unique parcel on Huffsmith Hill with stunning Teton views, listed for $5.1 million.

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$110,237,000

New Listing Volume

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

5

Vacant Lot Listings

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$3,444,906

Average List Price

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$2,347,000

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

1

listings under $500,000

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

13

Listings over $3M

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Cta_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]
Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019 Jackson Hole Real Estate Summary & 2020 Forecast

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2020 Forecast

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

We all remember 2018 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, right? An explosive year where everything was up, way up! Transactions increased 13%, while overall sales volume jumped a staggering 38%, and the average sale price was up 22%. What a year! Could it continue? Surely this level of appreciation wasn’t sustainable? Many predicted a recession, or a the very least a stabilization after such a wild year. Well, the 2019 market in Jackson Hole did slow down, but just a bit. While not a significant correction like many were hoping / predicting, the numbers show that 2018 was most likely a “peak” year. With a similar level of sales in 2019, dollar volume decreased 6% and the average sale price dropped 4.5%. The median sale price increased, recording its highest mark in the last 5 years but that is more likely an indication of the “Virginian Village effect” (see sales section above) then a result of increasing sale prices. New this year, I analyzed properties that sold at or above their listing prices, which can help us understand overall demand, as these sales are usually a result of multiple and/or quick offers. In each year since 2016, more and more properties have sold at or above the asking price, peaking in 2018 at 114 property sales (nearly 1 in every 4 sales!). In 2019, with a similar level of overall sales, 87 properties sold at or above their listing price (or roughly 1 in every 6 properties). While not a drastic change, this is another indicator of demand slowing down from the highs of 2018.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

After peaking in 2015 (739 new listings), the amount of new inventory entering the market constricted in 2016, down 16% percent. New listing levels have been increasing year-over-year since 2017, recently up 10% from 2018 to 2019 (696 new listings) – marking the most significant increase in over 5 years. After seeing what the market did in 2018, sellers may have wanted to take advantage and cash out, listing their property for sale in 2019. When more inventory (supply) enters the market, this can put downward pressure on pricing, perhaps explaining the slight decline in both sales volume and average sales prices in 2019. Obviously this isn’t true for the entire market, as certain pockets (Town under $1.3 million for example) continue to see high demand (and increasing prices). However, even though there were more listings in 2019, we saw the same amount of sales as 2018 (with fewer new listings), perhaps as some potential buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for a larger market correction.

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2020 Forecast

After a exceptionally strong 2018, I predicted that the unprecedented rate of market acceleration could not continue (see my 2019 forecast). After seeing things slow a bit in 2019, what will 2020 bring? Will things continue to slow or plateau like 2019 or will high demand for Jackson Hole properties once again push pricing upward?

Talks of a pending recession still abound, but will it happen in Jackson? It seems unlikely. Jackson Hole remains a highly desirable place to live for year round families and second homeowners alike. As more and more people can work remotely, many want to make living the dream in Jackson Hole a reality. That will probably never change. As people continue to move here, they will continue to compete for properties with the local buyers. Unfortunately, this can lead to the local working people getting squeezed – beaten out by cash offers and buyers willing to pay over market value to get their spot in Jackson Hole. I predict it getting continually harder and harder for local buyers to enter the market, and increasingly difficult to move up in the market (without taking on a higher mortgage in the process).

There is always uncertainty with an election year. Add to that global trade talks and impeachment hearings and many people are holding their breath and watching the market closely. That being said, many investors are cash heavy, waiting for any recession induced opportunities, suggesting that any slight down turn will be immediately buoyed by an increase in demand.

In a unique market like Jackson Hole, where the supply of land is permanently limited due to publicly held land and  conservation easements, it’s hard to imagine we will see enough new supply (or a decrease in demand) to result in any significant downtown. Happy 2020!

 

Advice for Sellers in 2020:

Know how your property’s “micro-market”. Certain segments of the market are seeing different levels of demand. Be familiar with recent comps, but even more importantly, current inventory / competition in your segment.

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers in certain segments. Think about what terms are most important to you. Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return.

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Advice for Buyers in 2020:

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? What types of properties are selling quickly?

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly as inventory in certain segments remains low. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation?

If you need to sell to buy, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens.

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: November New Listings in Jackson Hole

What happened in November?

New Listings

New listings continued to decline as we enter the winter season in Jackson Hole. Only 26 properties came to market in November, roughly one-quarter of new monthly inventory levels seen in the busy spring / summer listing season. Overall dollar volume of November’s listings was $45 million, also a far cry from monthly levels of $200-400 million seen in the spring and summer of this year. While November is historically a slow month for new listings, this November appears to be even slower than last year, when 31 properties came on totaling $64 million. After peaking at $3.4 million in October, the average listing price was cut in half, dropping to $1.7 million in November. The median listing price also declined, dipping to $1.125 million. Interestingly, November was one of the few months where the median LIST price was in line with the median SALES price, as inventory that sold in the month was being replaced with inventory of a similar price point (on average). The majority of November new listings were split between the $500,000- $1,000,000 and the $1-3 million price segments, together accounting for 80% of all new November listings. Five high end listings hit the market in November including two homes in Teton Village for $3.5 and $5.4 million, and the iconic Miller House, a historic yellow building on the corner of Broadway and Willow downtown, listed for $4.5 million dollars. Two of the 5 new listings in this high-end segment are already under contract. For the first time since I began tracking new listings in January 2014, there were 0 new listings priced under $500,000 this past month.
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$45,061,000

New Listing Volume

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

4

Vacant Lot Listings

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$1,733,115

Average List Price

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$1,187,500

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

0

listings under $500,000 Price Point

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5

Listings over $3M

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Cta_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]
Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: November Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in November?

What Sold

Real Estate sales dropped 31% from October recording only 40 sales in November. While down from the past few months, November’s sales were in line with levels seen in May/June 2019. Overall sales volume was also down in November, falling short of $80 million and dropping below $100 million for the first time in 4 months. The average sale price inched up to just under $2 million, however the median sales price has stayed steady around $1.1 million for the third month in a row. While properties are selling at a similar amount of time (150+/- days in 3 of the last 4 months), they were selling at more of a discount to list price in November. Last month, properties sold on average at 95% of their listing price with only 3 properties selling at or above list price. Note that in October, 15 properties sold at or above list price (representing 25% of all sales). Townhome and condo sales increased significantly, representing nearly 50% of all sales in November – a strong showing considering this segment represented 36%-39% of all sales over the past few months. Usually accounting for 43-52% of sales, transactions in the $1-3 million range dropped significantly in November with only 11 transactions representing 28% of all sales. The majority (40%) of November sales were in the $500,000 – $1,000,000 price point. On the other end of the spectrum, property sales in the high-end saw an uptick with 10 sales over $3 million, accounting for 1 out of every 4 sales in November.

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$79,639,304

Total Sales Volume

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153

Average Days on Market

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$1,100,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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40%

Single Family Sales

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

53%

of property sales over $1M

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3

TRANSACTION UNDER $500,000

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: October New Listings in Jackson Hole

What happened in October?

New Listings

The rate of new inventory hitting the market has dropped significantly in each of the last 2 months. October new listings were only half of the new listings in September and a third of what they were in August 2019. While the busy listing season may be over, thanks to two very high end listings (see below), the overall list volume in October actually increased 26% from September (which saw 50% more listings). The majority of new inventory in October was in the $1-3 million price range where we’ve been seeing the majority of the sales take place for the past 3 months. Only two properties came on under $500,000 – a Hansen Meadows 1 bedroom condo in Town and a deed restricted two bedroom condo south of town – both of which received immediate interest and went under contract quickly. Meanwhile, 10 new listings in October exceeded $3 million, including two very high-end properties: a 6,500 square foot contemporary house up on Spring Creek Ranch for $15 million and a 3 lot, 20 acre estate south of Wilson, listed for just under $25 million. Of the 34 new listings in October, nearly one-third are already under contract or closed illustrating that high demand still exists in the market for well-priced properties.

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$116,318,000

New Listing Volume

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5

Vacant Lot Listings

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$3,421,118

Average List Price

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$1,712,500

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

5%

under $500,000 Price Point

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

10

Listings over $3M

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Cta_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]
Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: October Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in October?

What Sold

The Jackson Hole real estate market does not appear to be slowing down one bit as October sales (58) kept pace with a busy end of summer. Total sales volume topped $100 million for the third month in a row! – An unprecedented stretch not seen in our recent market (since I began tallying stats in 2013 anyway). The average sales price of $1.87 million was a slight increase from September but was still below the high of $2.022 million from August 2019. Median sales price remained steady at just above $1.1 million. The average days on market increased after a low of 111 days in September, however properties were still selling at 96% of list price on average. In particular, 15 properties (25% of all sales) sold AT or ABOVE their listing price in October. Single family homes represented an even 50% of all October sales, while land purchases showed no signs of slowing, accounting for 14% of all sales for the second month in a row. Properties selling under $500,000 increased in October thanks to several sales of the last remaining Virginian Village condos in the Town of Jackson. The majority (43%) of all sales occurred in the $1-3 million price point for the third month in a row. The high-end segment of the market remained strong with 8 more sales over $3 million, accounting for a solid 14% of sales seen in October.

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$108,812,139

Total Sales Volume

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152

Average Days on Market

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$1,157,500

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

50%

Single Family Sales

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

57%

of property sales over $1M

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7

TRANSACTION UNDER $500,000

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: September Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in September?

What Sold

Contrary to what some national forecasts are predicting, the Jackson Hole real estate market is not slowing down! Real estate sales increased again, recording 57 sales in September, the highest monthly total since August 2018. Dollar volume topped $100 million for the second month in a row, crossing that threshold for only the second time in 2019. The average sales price dropped to just under $1.8 million while the median sale price also dropped down to $1.1 million after spiking at $1.326 million in August. While it appears properties were selling for a little bit less in September, they were selling very quickly. The average days on market was the lowest monthly average (111 days) since I began tracking this statistic 6 years ago. Properties may be selling faster as sellers motivation increases as we approach winter and year-end. On average, properties sold at a 5% discount to listing price, with only 9 properties selling at or above their listing price in September. After spiking in August, single-family home sales represented just under half of all sales in September. Townhome and condo sales increased last month representing nearly 40% of all sales. Land sales remained steady with 8 lot sales occurring in September. The majority of sales last month happened in the $1-3 million price point. However, September also saw 22 sales in the $500,000$1,000,000 range (the local’s market”), accounting for nearly 40% all sales. The high and low end remained consistent in September representing 5% and 11% of all sales respectively.

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$102,172,388

Total Sales Volume

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111

Average Days on Market

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$1,100,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

39%

Condo/Townhome Sales

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44%

of property sales under $1M

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3

TRANSACTION UNDER $500,000

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: September New Listings in Jackson Hole

What happened in September?

New Listings

After averaging nearly 100 new listings for the previous four months, the busy listing season slowed a bit with only 63 new properties hitting the market in September. While it is lower than levels seen in May, June, July and August, September’s new listings still outpaced typical winter / spring levels. The volume of all new listings last month was $92 million dollars, less than one-third of the monthly average of $300 million during the busy summer listing season. The average listing price dropped significantly down to $1.4 million from highs of $4.2 million seen in June 2019. The median listing price also dropped, down $470,000 to $1.125 million in September. The biggest change in the price breakdown was in the high-end ($3+ million). After seeing an average of 24 new listings a month in this price range, only 7 of these high end listings came on the market in September, including two Pine Glades Townhomes on Snow King (listed for $3.25 million and $3.95 million). The entry-level (under $500,000) increased slightly in September with 6 new listings including the last available Virginian Village condo at $327,500 and a deed restricted Town Creek townhome for $350,000. While new listings in the local’s market ($500,000 – $1 million) remained consistent in September, the majority of new listings were in the $1-3 million range however still represented 20 fewer listings than seen in August.

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$92,172,500

New Listing Volume

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

14

Vacant Lot Listings

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$1,463,056

Average List Price

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$1,125,000

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

55%

over $1M Price Point

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

6

Listings under $500k

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Cta_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]
Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: August New Listings in Jackson Hole

What happened in August?

New Listings

The busy summer listing season continued through August with 93 new listings hitting the market last month. Since May, 389 new properties have entered the market. Quite a high number considering there were 494 total sales recorded in MLS in all of 2018. While the number of new listings was similar to July, the dollar volume of August listings was down over $100 million from July and equated to only half of the listing volume seen in June (with 101 new listings). As such the average listing price dropped to $2.345 million from $3.5 million in July, and down from a staggering $4.2 million back in June 2019. The median list price also dropped; down slightly in August to just under $1.6 million from a high of $1.85 million in June. Over half of the new listings in August were between $1-3 million dollars, also the hot spot for sales this past month. Since May, 188 new listings have entered the market in this price range, by far eclipsing the 63 summer sales in the same price point. Luxury new listings are still very active with 15 new homes coming onto the market above $3 million. Since May, nearly 100 properties have come on to the market in this high-end segment – an increase of nearly 20% over luxury listings during the same time in 2018. Inventory under $500,000 continues to shrink as just 4 new listings entered the market in August, making a total of 21 for the entire summer and representing just 5% of all new listings.

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$218,169,900

New Listing Volume

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

11

Vacant Lot Listings

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$2,345,913

Average List Price

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

$1,595,000

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

70%

over $1M Price Point

[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]

4

Listings under $500k

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[siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Cta_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget]
Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.