Tag Archive for: jackson hole real estate stats

2020: July Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in July?

What Sold

Jackson Hole Real Estate sales exploded in July recording 57 transactions, more than double the sales seen just last month and also topping sales levels from this time last year (49 sales in July 2019). What is even more impressive was the monthly sales volume – a staggering $165 million, far surpassing the previous monthly sales volume record of $118 million April 2018. There is no doubt about it – the Jackson Hole real estate market is on fire! The average sale price increased to $2.88 million in July, the highest level seen in the last 12 months. The median sale price also increased up to $1.9 million, the highest monthly level since I began keeping these stats back in 2013. Out-of-town buyers continue to come to Jackson Hole, putting added demand on an already tight market. July sales occurred, on average, at 97% of their listing prices. Fourteen properties (25% of all sales) sold at or above their asking prices, many a result of multiple offer situations. Single family homes made up more than two-thirds of July sales, also a high not seen in the last 7 years. Nearly 72% of July sales were for more than $1 million with the majority of sales (25) occurring in the $1 – 3 million range. A whopping 16 properties sold above $3 million, with three properties in excess of $10 million, including two large homes north of town and a home with 360 degree views atop Gros Ventre North.
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$164,556,339

Total Sales Volume

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166

Average Days on Market

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$1,900,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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68%

Single Family Home Sales

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72%

of property sales over $1M

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16

TRANSACTIONS OVER $3M

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: June Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in June?

What Sold

Real estate sales picked up in June – recording 26 sales – however sales are still below levels seen this time last year (36 sales). However, the total sales volume of $65 million is the highest monthly volume since January and slightly higher than dollar volume seen in June last year ($51 million). The average sale price was just above $2.5 million, a decrease from May but nearly $1 million higher than June last year. The median sale price picked up in June to $1.44 million, higher than the previous 12 month average of $1.3 million. Property selling in June sold more quickly than average, spending an average of 134 days on the market. While 6 properties sold at or above their listing prices, properties on average sold at a 5% discount to asking price, a drop from the 96-97% levels seen in the previous 4 months. Single-family homes made up the majority (62%) of sales in June, representing the highest monthly percentage in the past year. While 38% of sales occurred in the $500,000 – $1 million range, nearly 1 in 4 sales in June were in excess of $3 million including a Shooting Star cabin (listed for $5.5 million) and the historic 199 acre Gill Huff Ranch, located at the base of Teton Pass, listed for $8.9 million.
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$34,116,499

Total Sales Volume

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134

Average Days on Market

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$1,440,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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62%

Single Family Home Sales

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58%

of property sales over $1M

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1

TRANSACTIONS UNDER $500,000

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: May Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in May?

What Sold

While it appears that the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the number of real estate sales in Jackson Hole, it does not appear to be affecting pricing/values overall. May real estate sales looked a lot like April real estate sales in Jackson Hole, both well below sale levels seen last year at this time. May recorded only 19 transactions, less than half of the 41 sales in May 2019. However, despite seeing only half of the sales, the overall dollar volume was exceptionally strong, totaling nearly $54 million vs $59.6 million last May (with twice as many sales). As a result, and thanks to several high-end sales at the end of May, the average sale price jumped up to $2.8 million, the highest monthly average sale price in over 3 years! Interesting to note, 13 of the 19 sales in May were over $1 million, with 5 high-end sales over $3 million including: the penthouse at One Town Hill (listed at $3.975 million), two 35-acre Ranch Estates at the Snake River Sporting Club, a lot in Shooting Star (listed at $5.5 million) and a beautiful estate in Grand Teton Ranch north of town, listed for $16.9 million.
On average, properties sold for 97% of their listing prices in May (with 6 of the 19 sales selling at or above the asking prices). While this might suggest that sellers are not adjusting their prices due to the pandemic, upon digging further into the numbers, we see a second story emerge. Seven of the 19 sales sold between 85-91% of their listing prices (or at a 9-15% discount) suggesting that yes, some sellers are seemingly motivated to sell during this time. It’s also important to note one significant outlier. Ranch Estate #8 down in the Snake River Sporting Club sold for 30% over its listing price. This was a build-to-suit/ lot purchase combo and the buyer ended up doing many upgrades pushing the sale price above and beyond the stated list price. Removing this outlier drops the monthly sale-list price ratio down to 95%.
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$53,797,394

Total Sales Volume

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185

Average Days on Market

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$1,402,500

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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53%

Single Family Home Sales

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31%

of property sales under $1M

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1

TRANSACTIONS UNDER $500,000

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: April Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in April?

What Sold

Since COVID-19 shut down much of Jackson Hole in mid-March, real estate activity has definitely slowed. While March numbers were still strong thanks to a busy first half of the month, April sales numbers seem to better reflect the effects of the Coronavirus on our market. There were only 18 sales in April 2020, totaling $26 million in total sales volume. While April is considered the “off-season” in Jackson, with consistently slower real estate activity, it was much slower this year in particular, recording roughly half of the 33 sales seen in April 2019. Sales volume was also lower, with approximately $12 million less than in April 2019 and marking the lowest monthly sales volume since April 2016. After exceeding $2 million for each month of the first quarter this year, the average sale price dropped significantly in April, down to $1.4 million, the lowest monthly average sale price in the last 11 months. The median sale price was also down, dropping from $1.6 million in March 2020 to $1.323 million in April 2020, which was however, still nearly double the median sale price in April 2019 ($785,000). April’s lower average sale price can be explained by two other monthly stats.
1) Nearly half of April sales this year were under $1 million vs. Q1 2020, where sales in this segment accounted for 30-34% of all sales.
2) Only 2 sales occurred over $3 million, the lowest monthly number of high-end sales since April last year.
Properties that sold in April were not on the market long selling within an average of 133 days, the lowest days on market in the past 7 months. Sale prices remain strong seeing an average sale to list price ratio of 97%, with 5 properties selling at or above their asking price in April. Condo and townhome sales represented 50% of all sales in April, the highest monthly percentage since nearly a year ago in May 2019. Only 1 lot sold in April, the only time that has happened since I began tracking stats in 2013
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$25,914,685

Total Sales Volume

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133

Average Days on Market

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$1,323,500

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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44%

Single Family Home Sales

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44%

of property sales under $1M

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2

TRANSACTIONS UNDER $500,000

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: March Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in March?

What Sold

Real estate sales in March dipped, down to 23 transactions for all of Teton County, 4 fewer sales than last month (Feb 2020) and 7 fewer sales than March 2019. This dip is most likely not a result of the coronavirus, as many properties that closed in March went under contract in February, prior the current COVID-19 pandemic effects. Despite seeing lower sales, overall dollar volume was up $3 million from February, reaching nearly $64 million. Thanks to 2 very high-end sales in March – a beautiful 103 acre tract along the Snake River adjacent to Grand Teton National Park (listed for $14.45 million) and a 6,700 square foot cabin at 3 Creek (listed for $11.75 million) – the average sale price jumped up to nearly $2.8 million, the highest monthly average sale price in the past 2 years. The median sale price in March (which is not as affected by the high-end / outlier sales) was also up in March, reaching just under $1.6 million, the highest monthly median sale price in the past year. The majority (60%) of property sales were single family homes in March. Only 5 condos/townhomes sold last month, the lowest monthly total since March 2017. Three vacant lots sold in March, including a 5-acre parcel on the Village Road owned by Teton County and originally earmarked for affordable housing. The majority (43%) of March sales occurred in the $1-3 million price point. In addition to the 2 high-end property sales listed above, another 4 properties sold above $3 million, with that segment accounting for 26% of all sales in March.

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$63,981,729

Total Sales Volume

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176

Average Days on Market

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$1,595,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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61%

Single Family Home Sales

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70%

of property sales over $1M

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3

TRANSACTION UNDER $500,000

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2020: February Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in February?

What Sold

Real estate sales were down in February, recording only 27 transactions – the lowest monthly total since last February 2019. Overall sales volume was also down $30 million after a strong January that saw nearly $90 million in sales volume. February volume was the lowest monthly volume since June 2019. Despite lower sales and volume, the average sale price remains strong, reaching close to $2,250,000 for only the first time in the past year. February saw several high end sales including 2 Granite Ridge homes in Teton Village, selling for a combined $15 million. The majority (56%) of sales in February were for single family homes. Not surprisingly given the snow levels, only 3 vacant lots sold in February. The $1-3 million price point was again the hot spot, with nearly half of last month’s sales occurring in this price range. There were 0 sales under $500,000 in February, the first month without a sale in the entry level market since I began tracking this stat in January 2018. The average days on market dropped down to 168 days after reaching 191 last month. Interestingly, the sale to list price ratio hit 97% for the first time since July 2019, illustrating that properties, on average, were selling closer to listing price in February, with nearly 1 in 4 properties selling at or above their listing price last month.

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$60,598,698

Total Sales Volume

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168

Average Days on Market

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$1,495,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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56%

Single Family Home Sales

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67%

of property sales over $1M

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0

TRANSACTION UNDER $500,000

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: January Sales in Jackson Hole

What happened in January?

What Sold

The New Year started out strong with 41 real estate sales in January 2020, an increase of 20% from December 2019. Those 41 sales translated to $90 million in sales volume, the highest monthly volume in the past 3 months. As a result, the average sale price for January 2020 reached $2.2 million, breaking $2 million for the first time since August 2019. The median sale price dropped $130,000 to $1.27 million in January with 34% of all sales occurring under $1 million and another 12 sales occurring between $1,000,000 – $1,300,000. Days on market increased slightly in January, with the average property selling in 191 days, however high demand and well priced listings are selling much more quickly. The sale to list price ratio remained at 95% for the third month in a row, with 7 of the 41 sales occurring at or above the listing price including a stand-alone townhome on East Hall, that received five offers in the first few days of listing, quickly selling for full price of $1,095,000 . The majority (41%) of the sales in January were single family homes, while townhomes accounted for 37% of all sales. Interestingly, there were 9 lot sales in January representing nearly 1 in every 4 sales last month, quite the increase considering that vacant land accounted for an average of 14% of all sales over the last 8 months. Nearly half (44%) of all sales occurred in the $1-3 million range, perhaps signalling a trend after representing 50% of all sales in Dec 2019. The high end segment started the New Year strong with 9 sales over $3 million in January, including several homes around Teton Village in Shooting Star, Granite Ridge, and Lake Creek Ranch.

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$89,912,254

Total Sales Volume

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191

Average Days on Market

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$1,270,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

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41%

Single Family Home Sales

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66%

of property sales over $1M

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4

TRANSACTION UNDER $500,000

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: January New Listings in Jackson Hole

What happened in January?

New Listings

The first month of the New Year saw 32 new listings enter the market, a slight increase over December 2019, however still roughly one-third of new inventory seen during the summer months. Listing volume topped $110 million for the second month in a row. The average listing price dropped slightly from December but remained strong at $3.4 million, continuing to outpace the average sale price by more than a $1 million for the last 2 months. The median list price spiked in January, topping $2 million for the first time since I began tracking this stat in April 2017. Not a surprise, considering that over 80% of January new listings were over $1 million with a whopping 40% of new listings over $3 million last month. Several high end homes came on the market at 3 Creek ($11.75 million), Solitude ($7.5 million) and a beautiful custom home north of town, listed for $16.9 million (and already under contract!). Only 5 new listings entered the “locals market” ($500,000 – $1 million) and only one property hit the market under $500,000 – a one bedroom condo in East Jackson, listed for $365,000 that received 3 immediate offers. New listings were split almost equally between single family homes (14) and townhomes (13) with 5 vacant lots coming onto the market in January, including a unique parcel on Huffsmith Hill with stunning Teton views, listed for $5.1 million.

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$110,237,000

New Listing Volume

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5

Vacant Lot Listings

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$3,444,906

Average List Price

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$2,347,000

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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1

listings under $500,000

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13

Listings over $3M

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019 Jackson Hole Real Estate Summary & 2020 Forecast

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2020 Forecast

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

We all remember 2018 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, right? An explosive year where everything was up, way up! Transactions increased 13%, while overall sales volume jumped a staggering 38%, and the average sale price was up 22%. What a year! Could it continue? Surely this level of appreciation wasn’t sustainable? Many predicted a recession, or a the very least a stabilization after such a wild year. Well, the 2019 market in Jackson Hole did slow down, but just a bit. While not a significant correction like many were hoping / predicting, the numbers show that 2018 was most likely a “peak” year. With a similar level of sales in 2019, dollar volume decreased 6% and the average sale price dropped 4.5%. The median sale price increased, recording its highest mark in the last 5 years but that is more likely an indication of the “Virginian Village effect” (see sales section above) then a result of increasing sale prices. New this year, I analyzed properties that sold at or above their listing prices, which can help us understand overall demand, as these sales are usually a result of multiple and/or quick offers. In each year since 2016, more and more properties have sold at or above the asking price, peaking in 2018 at 114 property sales (nearly 1 in every 4 sales!). In 2019, with a similar level of overall sales, 87 properties sold at or above their listing price (or roughly 1 in every 6 properties). While not a drastic change, this is another indicator of demand slowing down from the highs of 2018.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

After peaking in 2015 (739 new listings), the amount of new inventory entering the market constricted in 2016, down 16% percent. New listing levels have been increasing year-over-year since 2017, recently up 10% from 2018 to 2019 (696 new listings) – marking the most significant increase in over 5 years. After seeing what the market did in 2018, sellers may have wanted to take advantage and cash out, listing their property for sale in 2019. When more inventory (supply) enters the market, this can put downward pressure on pricing, perhaps explaining the slight decline in both sales volume and average sales prices in 2019. Obviously this isn’t true for the entire market, as certain pockets (Town under $1.3 million for example) continue to see high demand (and increasing prices). However, even though there were more listings in 2019, we saw the same amount of sales as 2018 (with fewer new listings), perhaps as some potential buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for a larger market correction.

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2020 Forecast

After a exceptionally strong 2018, I predicted that the unprecedented rate of market acceleration could not continue (see my 2019 forecast). After seeing things slow a bit in 2019, what will 2020 bring? Will things continue to slow or plateau like 2019 or will high demand for Jackson Hole properties once again push pricing upward?

Talks of a pending recession still abound, but will it happen in Jackson? It seems unlikely. Jackson Hole remains a highly desirable place to live for year round families and second homeowners alike. As more and more people can work remotely, many want to make living the dream in Jackson Hole a reality. That will probably never change. As people continue to move here, they will continue to compete for properties with the local buyers. Unfortunately, this can lead to the local working people getting squeezed – beaten out by cash offers and buyers willing to pay over market value to get their spot in Jackson Hole. I predict it getting continually harder and harder for local buyers to enter the market, and increasingly difficult to move up in the market (without taking on a higher mortgage in the process).

There is always uncertainty with an election year. Add to that global trade talks and impeachment hearings and many people are holding their breath and watching the market closely. That being said, many investors are cash heavy, waiting for any recession induced opportunities, suggesting that any slight down turn will be immediately buoyed by an increase in demand.

In a unique market like Jackson Hole, where the supply of land is permanently limited due to publicly held land and  conservation easements, it’s hard to imagine we will see enough new supply (or a decrease in demand) to result in any significant downtown. Happy 2020!

 

Advice for Sellers in 2020:

Know how your property’s “micro-market”. Certain segments of the market are seeing different levels of demand. Be familiar with recent comps, but even more importantly, current inventory / competition in your segment.

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers in certain segments. Think about what terms are most important to you. Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return.

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Advice for Buyers in 2020:

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? What types of properties are selling quickly?

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly as inventory in certain segments remains low. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation?

If you need to sell to buy, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens.

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: Year End Review – Jackson Hole

2019: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

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$890,085,959

Total Sales Volume

$1,805,448

Average Sales Price

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Market Analysis

After an explosive 2018 that saw a 13% annual increase in sales and a staggering 38% increase in dollar volume, many predicted that the market would slow in 2019, many thought the market was in need of a correction. The number of real estate sales did not slow down in 2019, recording a nearly identical number of sales as 2018. After under performing 2018 in the first two quarters, transactions increased in Q3 and Q4 of 2019, netting a total of 493 sales* (vs. 494 sales in 2018). What did change in 2019 was the overall dollar volume, dropping 6% percent from 2018, to $890,000,000* in 2019. After starting the year off strong  (2019 Q1 sales volume was up 50% from 2018 Q1), the second quarter of 2019 really under preformed 2018, recording just over half of the sales volume seen in the 2nd quarter of 2018. While the second half of 2019 recorded similar numbers to the same time in 2018, the overall dollar volume of 2019 still came up $45 million short of 2018. With a similar level of sales and less dollar volume, it’s no surprise that the average sale price followed a similar trend (high in Q1, low in Q2 and pretty even in Q3 & Q4) with the end of year average dropping $85,000 (4.5%) to just over $1.8 million. In analyzing the price point breakdown in 2019 vs 2018, a few trends become clear:

  1. The high end market saw a similar level of sales in 2019 (74 vs 76 in 2018). Digging deeper, shows that overall dollar volume of this segment was down 3.5% in 2019, accounting for $412 million in total volume.
  2. Sales seemed to shift from the locals market ($500,000 – $1,000,000), which was down 17%, to the $1-3 million range, which was up 9% from 2018.
  3. The most dramatic change occurred in the sub $500,000 market, where nearly 50% MORE sales occurred in 2019. The 24 additional sales in this price point can be almost entirely explained by the sales of the Virginian Village condos. Condominiumized by the developer several years ago, these 1 and 2 bedroom units located in the heart of Jackson were completely renovated with new appliances, flooring, kitchens, baths, etc. After selling several units FSBO, the remaining units were put on the market with Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates and accounted for 26 sales between Feb – Dec 2019. These condos were in high demand, selling one after the other, with 1 bedrooms selling between $302,000 – $325,000 and 2 bedrooms selling between $402,500 – $435,000.
This influx of inventory and sales in the entry level market, can help explain why, despite a decrease in average sales price, the average monthly median sales price in 2019 was actually up, increasing to $1.15 million from $1.09 million in 2018. With more sales in the bottom end of the market, the median (which measures the middle of the market sales) was pushed up in 2019 because of the additional 26 sales on the low end. In analyzing the property type breakdown, it shows that single family home sales decreased 5%, representing 46% of all sales in 2019, while townhome/condo sales increased in 2019, up 6% representing 40% of all sales. Again, most likely a result of the 26 Virginian Village condo sales in 2019. Land sales represented a similar amount of sales in 2019 (14% vs 12% in 2018).
*Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for 2019, excluding fractional sales and duplicate entries. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.
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$1,155,979

Average Median Sales Price

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14%

of Sales were Land Lots

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2019: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$1,852,044,899

LIST PRICE Volume

$2,660,984

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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Market Analysis

Buyers had more options in 2019, as 696 new residential listings entered the market, compared to 632 in 2018, an increase of 10%. New inventory levels outpaced 2018 in the first 3 quarters of 2019, with an especially strong Q3 that saw 40 more new listings than the same period in 2018. While the number of new listings increased 10%, the dollar volume of those new listings jumped up 15%, with $243 million more in dollar volume than in 2018. New listing volume outpaced 2018 in 3 of the 4 quarters, with a very strong Q2 seeing $200 million more in listing volume than in Q2 2018. So, not only was more inventory entering the market in 2019, but it did so at higher price points. As a result, the average listing price increased 4.5%, up to $2.66 million in 2019. Sixty-five percent of 2019’s new listings were in excess of $1 million, with the majority (44%) in the $1-3 million range. Fifty-seven properties entered the market priced under $500,000, with the Virginian Village condos accounting for roughly half (28) of the listings. Single family homes accounted for just over 50% of new listings in 2019.

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$1,412,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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65%

Listings over $1 million

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.