2019: Year End Review – Jackson Hole

2019: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

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$890,085,959

Total Sales Volume

$1,805,448

Average Sales Price

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Market Analysis

After an explosive 2018 that saw a 13% annual increase in sales and a staggering 38% increase in dollar volume, many predicted that the market would slow in 2019, many thought the market was in need of a correction. The number of real estate sales did not slow down in 2019, recording a nearly identical number of sales as 2018. After under performing 2018 in the first two quarters, transactions increased in Q3 and Q4 of 2019, netting a total of 493 sales* (vs. 494 sales in 2018). What did change in 2019 was the overall dollar volume, dropping 6% percent from 2018, to $890,000,000* in 2019. After starting the year off strong  (2019 Q1 sales volume was up 50% from 2018 Q1), the second quarter of 2019 really under preformed 2018, recording just over half of the sales volume seen in the 2nd quarter of 2018. While the second half of 2019 recorded similar numbers to the same time in 2018, the overall dollar volume of 2019 still came up $45 million short of 2018. With a similar level of sales and less dollar volume, it’s no surprise that the average sale price followed a similar trend (high in Q1, low in Q2 and pretty even in Q3 & Q4) with the end of year average dropping $85,000 (4.5%) to just over $1.8 million. In analyzing the price point breakdown in 2019 vs 2018, a few trends become clear:

  1. The high end market saw a similar level of sales in 2019 (74 vs 76 in 2018). Digging deeper, shows that overall dollar volume of this segment was down 3.5% in 2019, accounting for $412 million in total volume.
  2. Sales seemed to shift from the locals market ($500,000 – $1,000,000), which was down 17%, to the $1-3 million range, which was up 9% from 2018.
  3. The most dramatic change occurred in the sub $500,000 market, where nearly 50% MORE sales occurred in 2019. The 24 additional sales in this price point can be almost entirely explained by the sales of the Virginian Village condos. Condominiumized by the developer several years ago, these 1 and 2 bedroom units located in the heart of Jackson were completely renovated with new appliances, flooring, kitchens, baths, etc. After selling several units FSBO, the remaining units were put on the market with Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates and accounted for 26 sales between Feb – Dec 2019. These condos were in high demand, selling one after the other, with 1 bedrooms selling between $302,000 – $325,000 and 2 bedrooms selling between $402,500 – $435,000.
This influx of inventory and sales in the entry level market, can help explain why, despite a decrease in average sales price, the average monthly median sales price in 2019 was actually up, increasing to $1.15 million from $1.09 million in 2018. With more sales in the bottom end of the market, the median (which measures the middle of the market sales) was pushed up in 2019 because of the additional 26 sales on the low end. In analyzing the property type breakdown, it shows that single family home sales decreased 5%, representing 46% of all sales in 2019, while townhome/condo sales increased in 2019, up 6% representing 40% of all sales. Again, most likely a result of the 26 Virginian Village condo sales in 2019. Land sales represented a similar amount of sales in 2019 (14% vs 12% in 2018).
*Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for 2019, excluding fractional sales and duplicate entries. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.
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$1,155,979

Average Median Sales Price

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14%

of Sales were Land Lots

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2019: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$1,852,044,899

LIST PRICE Volume

$2,660,984

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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Market Analysis

Buyers had more options in 2019, as 696 new residential listings entered the market, compared to 632 in 2018, an increase of 10%. New inventory levels outpaced 2018 in the first 3 quarters of 2019, with an especially strong Q3 that saw 40 more new listings than the same period in 2018. While the number of new listings increased 10%, the dollar volume of those new listings jumped up 15%, with $243 million more in dollar volume than in 2018. New listing volume outpaced 2018 in 3 of the 4 quarters, with a very strong Q2 seeing $200 million more in listing volume than in Q2 2018. So, not only was more inventory entering the market in 2019, but it did so at higher price points. As a result, the average listing price increased 4.5%, up to $2.66 million in 2019. Sixty-five percent of 2019’s new listings were in excess of $1 million, with the majority (44%) in the $1-3 million range. Fifty-seven properties entered the market priced under $500,000, with the Virginian Village condos accounting for roughly half (28) of the listings. Single family homes accounted for just over 50% of new listings in 2019.

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$1,412,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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65%

Listings over $1 million

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: Q4 Sales & New Listings

Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$1,930,301

Average Sales Price

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$254,799,682

Total Sales Volume

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Market Analysis

The 4th quarter of 2019 looked a lot like the 4th quarter of 2018. Total sales increased ever so slightly, up from 130 in 2018 to 132 sales in 2019. In looking at numbers month-by-month, while 2019 saw a few more sales in October and December, it was balanced out by a few less sales in November. Dollar volume was also similar quarter to quarter, and actually dropped 1.7% from Q4 2018, recording a total of $254,800,000 in Q4 2019. Monthly dollar volume in 2019 outpaced 2018 most significantly in October, recording over $108 million in volume vs $91 million in October 2018. November was a bit slower in 2019 while December was identical at $66 million for the month. As expected, the average sale price was also consistent between 2018 and 2019 slipping down to $1.93 million from $1.99 million in 2018. In analyzing price points, sales in the $1-3 million range were up 15% while sales in the $500,000-$1,000,000 range dropped by 17% compared to Q4 2018. This upward shift in price point is reflected in the median sales price, which was higher in each month of Q4 2019. Sales under $500,000 stayed consistent, recording 12 sales in all of the 4th quarter. Townhomes and condos represented slightly more of the sales in 2019, while lot sales remained steady, representing 16% of all sales in Q4 2019.  What does all this mean? While things aren’t necessarily slowing down, the rate of acceleration has appeared to slow. Will we see more of the same in 2020 or is this an indication of the market leveling off as we enter the next decade? Stay tuned!

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New Listings – What’s New?

$3,023,767

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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$278,891,000

LIST PRICE Volume

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Market Analysis

New inventory was down, but listing prices were up in the 4th quarter of 2019, where 18 fewer properties hit the market – a drop of 17% from the same time in 2018. New listings were down every month in the 4th quarter with the biggest drop coming in October, when only 34 properties hit the market (vs. 46 in October 2018). Despite having 17% fewer options in 2019, buyers saw those options increase in price with total dollar volume jumping 12% from Q4 2018. October & December were big dollar months, recording $116 million and $117 million in new listings respectively. As a result, the average listing price jumped up dramatically in the 4th quarter, going from $2.3 million in Q4 2018 to above $3 million in Q4 2019. The median list price saw a more modest, yet still significant, increase from $1.26 million to $1.37 million – a jump of 9%. The spike in dollar volume and average listing price is supported by the price point of several high end listings in Q4 2019. While a similar number of these $3+ million listings hit the market in Q4 2019 and Q4 2018, this past year saw several ultra-high-end listings including: a contemporary home with stunning views atop Spring Creek Ranch for $15 million, a 3 lot estate on 20+ acres south of Wilson for $25 million, and a recently listed 18,000 sq foot home, guest home and barn on 215 acres in the heart of Jackson Hole for $35 million. For much of 2019, we saw higher priced inventory replace the lower price sales, a pattern that can’t be sustainable for long in our market. How will Q1 2020 compare? Will more high end listings continue to flood the market, while the “local’s market” sees fewer and fewer options? How will that affect demand in each of those segments? Stay tuned…

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2018: May Market Report

What happened in May?

New Listings

The busy summer selling season is heating up with 93 new listings hitting the market in May, totaling $212 million in listing volume. Action is picking up fast, as May 2018 is well ahead of last May 2017 where we saw 86 new listings totaling $190 million in volume. Across the board, sellers are feeling confident as the average listing price reached $2.286 million in May, the highest average seen thus far in 2018. Buyers are watching and moving quickly. Of the 65 new residential listings in May (single family homes and townhomes/condos), 21 are already under contract or sold. While the majority of new listings are always residential, there were 28 new lot listings in May, by far the most seen in one month in the last several years.

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$2,286,774

Average List Price

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28

NEW LOTS FOR SALE

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$157,255,950

New Listing Volume

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What Sold

After an April that saw nearly 40% of property sales over the $3 million mark, things calmed down a bit in May. While there were more sales (38 total transactions), they totaled less volume ($66.8 million in May vs. $119 million in April despite 9 fewer sales). As a result, the average sales price dropped back down to typical levels at $1.7 million. The median sale price fell to $1.125 million, however this is still high given that this metric has been under $1 million in 8 of the last 12 months. Nearly half of all sales occurred under the $1 million mark in May compared to only 31% in April, with nearly 40% occurring in the “locals” market between $500,000 – $1,000,000. These sales included several older single family homes in Town, townhomes in Town and condos in Teton Village. The sale to list price ratio remains strong at 97%, marking the 6th consecutive month where properties have sold at 96-97% of the listing price. In fact, 9 properties in May sold at or ABOVE the listing price, including a 3 bedroom Teton Village condo that was listed at $795,000 and sold for nearly $100,000 more.

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$66,826,600

Total Sales Volume

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47%

of property sales were under $1M

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$1,758,595

Average Sales PRICE

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2018: April Market Report

What happened in April?

The big headline of the April market report is that nearly 40% of all April sales occurred in the high end of the market. After a first quarter of 2018 that saw 60% of sales happen in the “locals” market (sub $1 million), there were 11 sales over $3 million last month, including 6 sales over $5 million and one sale close to $15 million (a newly completed 10,000+ sq ft estate in Dairy Ranches). As a result, the average sales price skyrocketed to over $4 million (the median sales price also increased significantly to $1.7 million). April sales volume topped $85 million, quite the strong number considering that the total sales volume for the first 3 months of the year was a combined $103 million.

The good news for local buyers is that new listings increased in April, with 36 new properties hitting the market – the most monthly listings since Sept 2017. The average listing price of these new listings was $1.8 million, however the median listing price was just under $1 million. The average days on market dropped to 159 days and the sale price to list price ratio increased to 96%. This ratio has been at or above 96% since the beginning of the year, illustrating that many properties are selling close to list price as demand remains strong.
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$2,134,609

Average List Price

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$115,268,900

LIST PRICE Volume

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$118,833,300

Total Sales Volume

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$4,097,700

Average Sales PRICE

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38%

of transactions sold over $3M

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Real Estate activity rebounds after slow July, but still lags 2015

Transactions and sales decline in July after explosive June in Jackson Hole real estate market

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Aug 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – July 2016:

  • 31 :: Total residential sale transactions (vs. 58 in June)
  • $29,125,000 :: Total residential sales volume (vs. $78 million in June)
  • $940,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (lowest in past year)
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (typical level)
  • 133 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (lowest in past 3+ years!)

What it means:  The explosion of real estate activity we experienced in June proved to be more of an anomaly than signaling the start of a record breaking summer trend. After recording the highest transaction level in 3 years (58) and the highest sales volume in 2016 ($75 million) in June, the Jackson Hole real estate market eased off a bit in July with 31 sales totally less than $30 million in sales volume. Interestingly, last July was also lackluster with only 34 sales and $30 million in sales volume. It will be interesting to see if these next few months will mirror the sustained increase in activity seen in Aug/Sept/Oct of 2015 (see chart below). After increasing two months in a row, the average sales price dropped significantly in July, dipping below the $1 million mark for the first time since July 2015 ($902,000). The lower average sales price was driven by several sales in the $500,000 – $700,000 range (see “What Sold?” below). While the sale price to list price ratio held steady at 96%, over 1/4 of buyers paid at, near or ABOVE the listing price for properties in July, including a twinhome in Rafter J, which had multiple offers and sold for $20,000 OVER the listing price. This illustrates that there is still strong demand for well priced properties, especially in the sub $650,000 price range. After hitting a high of 225 days in January 2016, the average number of days a property sits on the market before selling took another dip, reaching a low not seen in the past 3+ years (since I began tracking this statistic). In fact, 50% of all sales in July sold within 90 days of hitting the market (!) – most likely a result of 10 year low inventory levels (see Mid Year Summary). Many buyers know the market well and are prepared to act quickly when they find a property that suits their needs.  (Note: If you are searching for a particular property type/price range, please connect me so that I can alert you about well priced properties entering our market. You can also sign up for email updates for new listings in your price range.) 

DOM

 

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Sales and dollar volume down again, available inventory lowest since 2007: Mid Year update from The Jackson Hole Report

Sale transactions and dollar volume are down again in the second quarter of 2016, mostly due to dwindling well-priced inventory under $1 million.  The Jackson Hole Report, a quarterly market report prepared by my colleague David Viehman at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, provides insights into the local real estate market through the end of the 2nd quarter 2016. Click HERE to read the full 2016 Mid Year Report. A summary of statistics/trends follows:

OVERALL MARKET

  • Total number of Sale Transactions are down 16%
  • Sales under $1 million are down 21%
  • Overall dollar volume is down 14%
  • Despite dwindling sales, the Average Sale Price increased by 3% in Q2 2016
  • Hot Price Point: Properties priced under $1 million, where 53% of the sales occurred in the second quarter
  • Hot Location: The Town of Jackson, which accounted for 35% of all sales in the second quarter
  • Overall inventory is down by 7% (compared to Q2 2015), representing the LOWEST inventory levels since the market peak in 2007

HIGH END MARKET

  • High-end property sales ($2+ million) were down 23% from Q2 2015
  • However, despite declining sales, high-end properties under contract have increased by 42%
  • There are 68 properties for sale over $5 million, an increase of 11%
  • The most expensive property for sale in Teton County is a 264 acre property just south of Wilson with 7,715 sq ft main house, guest house, and expansive frontage on both the Snake River and Fish Creek, listed for $53 million (pictured below)

264 acre property on Snake River & Fish Creek – $53 million (listed by JH Sotheby’s)

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

  • Single family (SF) home sales in the second quarter were up only slightly (2%) from last year at this time
  • SF home sales over $1 million are up 18%, SF home sales over $3 million are up 43%
  • Overall SF home inventory is down 12%, with only 20% of listings priced under $1 million
  • Only 13 homes are available under $750,000, down 71% from this time last year
  • The average asking price of new listings is up 11% to $3.65 million – the second highest average ever!

Click HERE to view the 39 single family home listings priced under $1 million

3 bed / 2 bath in Cottonwood Park – $650,000 (Listed by JH Sotheby’s)

CONDO/TOWNHOME

  • Overall condo sales have slowed, down 6% from this time last year
  • Condo sales under $500,000 fell dramatically (down 32%)
  • Overall available inventory is up 10%, however inventory under $300,000 is down 71%
  • The average listing price for condo/townhomes is up 29%
  • 72% of available condos are priced under $1 million, with only 31% priced under $500,000

Click HERE to see the 26 condos/townhomes available under $500,000

Nelson

4 bedroom townhome in East Jackson – $499,000 (listed by RE/MAX Obsidian)

VACANT LAND

  • Lot sales are down significantly (55%) with only 28 sales in the first 6 months of 2016
  • However, the average sales price continues to climb, up 10% in Q2 2016
  • 64% of lot sales are purchased with cash (i.e. no financing)
  • Overall available inventory dipped 5% from Q2 2015, however the supply of lots remains high
  • NOTE: Supply exceeds demand in this segment, with 34 months of inventory currently on the market.
  • The majority of available lots (49) are in the $500,000 – $1 million price range.

 

WHAT TO DO NEXT? 

BUYERS: Given the low levels of available inventory, especially in the entry level market, well priced and well maintained properties will continue to sell quickly. Please connect with me so that I can alert you about soon-to-be-listed properties in your price range. You can also search Jackson Hole properties on my website or sign up for automatic listing updates. As a Buyer, it’s very important to be prepared to act quickly. Get pre-qualified with a local bank (contact me for a list of local lenders) in order to be ready to make an offer on a competitive property.

SELLERS: As a Seller, the best strategy is to price your property competitively (based on the most comparable sales) and market it effectively, as well priced properties can receive multiple offers. If you are interested in a learning what your property could sell for in this market, please complete the Home Valuation Request Form for a free, in-depth, data-driven market analysis.

Jackson Hole Real Estate activity explodes in June, reaching levels not seen in nearly 3 years

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for July 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – June 2016:

  • 58 :: Total residential sale transactions (highest in nearly 3 years!)
  • $77,934,000 :: Total residential sales volume (highest in 2016)
  • $1,345,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (another increase)
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (typical level)
  • 173 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (remains low)

What it means:  The Jackson Hole real estate market is on fire! There were nearly 60 sale transactions in June, the highest level of monthly transactions since August 2013. Sales Volume also spiked in June, marking the highest monthly volume seen since last October 2015. While May 2016 statistics lagged 2015 (see June’s Market Report), the activity level in June 2016 leaves no doubt that the busy summer selling season is in full swing!  The average sales price increased again in June, but still remains below the highs seen in the past year (see chart below).  The sale price to list price ratio has returned to stable levels at 96%, meaning, on average buyers are purchasing at a 4% discount to the listing price. That being said, 11 properties sold at, near or above the listing price in June, including an older cabin and guest house on 1.5 acres off the Village Road, which sold for $25,000 OVER the listing price.  The average number of days on market remained at 173, the lowest level seen since last September. Well priced properties continue to sell quickly, as 24 properties (41% of all sales!) sold within 90 days of listing. Again this month, there were also several properties that sold BEFORE even hitting the market or being entered into the Multiple List Service (MLS). (Note: If you are searching for a particular property type/price range, please contact me so that I can help identify additional properties for you that may not be officially listed in the MLS.)

Transactions

M-M.Transactions

SalesVolume

AVSP

 

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for July 2016.

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Sale Transactions & Dollar Volume increase in May, but still lag 2015 summer sale statistics

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for June 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – May 2016:

  • 33 :: Total residential sale transactions (highest in past 6 months)
  • $38,200,000 :: Total residential sales volume (jump from last month)
  • $1,160,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (up after a low last month)
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (back up to typical level)
  • 173 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (lowest in 8 months)

What it means:  Both sale transactions and dollar volume jumped up in the month of May after a sluggish early spring. Dollar Volume increased 54% from April, while sale transactions in May were the highest in the past 6 months. This is great news as we enter the busy summer selling season, however these sale statistics are still lagging 2015 numbers. Compared to May 2015, both sales transactions AND dollar volume are down 42% (see chart below). It will be interesting to see if the entire summer selling season will lag 2015, or if we are simply off to a slower start this year.  The average sales price increased slightly in May, but still remains low, dipping below $1.2 million for only the 3rd time in the past 12 months.   The sale price to list price ratio stabilized at 96% after a low a few months ago. In May, 5 properties sold at or near the listing price, including two 3-bdrm condos in Hansen Meadows, selling at $410,000 and $440,000.  The average number of days a property sits on the market before selling dropped significantly in May, marking the lowest level seen since last September, as 11 properties (or 33% of all sales) sold within 90 days of listing. There were also several properties that sold BEFORE even hitting the market or being entered into the Multiple List Service (MLS). (Note: If you are searching for a particular property type/price range, please contact me so that I can help identify additional properties for you that may not be officially listed in the MLS.)

Transactions

SalesVolume

AvgSalesPrice

2015v2016.Transactions

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for June 2016.

 

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Dollar Volume down in 2016 as April records lowest level in 15 months

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for May 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Apr 2016:

  • 24 :: Total residential sale transactions (similar to last month)
  • $24,700,000 :: Total residential sales volume (lowest in 2+ years)
  • $1,030,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (lowest in 9 months)
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (back up to typical level)
  • 210 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (similar to last month)

What it means:  Sale transactions in April were in line with March sales, which continued to lag 2015 transaction numbers. Total dollar volume dropped significantly last month, marking the lowest level since Jan 2014. Compared to last year, April’s dollar volume was less than half of what was sold in April 2015, a prevailing trend so far in 2016 (see chart below).  Given the low dollar volume, the average sales price in April also dropped as many properties sold in the lower price ranges (see What Sold below). The last time the average sales price was down near $1 million was back in July 2015.  The sale price to list price ratio rebounded from last month to more typical levels. In particular, 6 properties (or 25% of all sales) sold at or near the listing price in April, including a 3 bedroom updated Aspens condo, which sold quickly for the listing price of $990,000. The average days on market remained consistent as most properties, on average, sold in a little over 200 days of listing. In April, more than 40% of the sales occurred within 3 months of hitting the market, including a 3 bedroom townhome in E Jackson and a vacant lot in Teton Pines. This illustrates that well-priced properties in high demand market segments are selling quickly in the Jackson real estate market.

Transactions

Volume

2016v2015

AVSP

Click HERE to read the full Monthly Market Update for May 2016.

 

Thinking of listing this summer?

As we approach the busy selling season, Sellers will be in a great position to benefit from low inventory levels in the Jackson Hole market. If you are curious about the value of your property in the current market, please contact me for a free and accurate market analysis. Properties listed by May 25, 2016 will be included in our RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate Summer Brochure!

Brochure-e1402338408759